A senseless war and conflict is raging in the Amhara region and the rest of Ethiopia. This conflict in the Amhara region, emerging from the ashes of the struggle with the TPLF, has morphed into a poignant emblem of Ethiopia’s fractured state. This paper echoes an urgent call for unity and reform beyond ethnic federalism. Click to read a captivating history of Ethiopia and more

The Fanos, an armed faction within the Amhara region, initially took up arms at the federal government’s behest to combat the TPLF, with no intention of overthrowing the regime but rather to maintain their right to bear these arms for self-defense. Despite assurances from the government that they could retain their weapons post-conflict, a policy reversal aimed at disarming the Fanos ignited the current conflict. The government’s attempt to disarm them met with refusal, which led to the declaration of war against the Fanos.

The Fanos Plight: A Struggle for Survival

The Fanos, embroiled in the current conflict, originally sought not power but the means to protect their communities and uphold border security. Their battle, borne from desperation and sacrifice, reflects a deeper crisis within Ethiopia’s governance—a reliance on ethnic federalism that has exacerbated divisions and sown discord across regions.

Ethnic Federalism: A Divisive Legacy

Ethiopia’s experiment with ethnic federalism, while well-intentioned, has led to catastrophic outcomes, fragmenting the nation along ethnic lines and inciting conflict. The aftermath of these policies is starkly visible in the ongoing turmoil in the Amhara and Oromo regions, underscoring the urgent need for a governance model that fosters unity rather than division.

A Call to Action: Learning from Rwanda’s Unity

The international community, including African leaders who have successfully navigated their countries through ethnic strife, has voiced support for Ethiopia to abandon its divisive governance model. UAE and Rwanda leaders are good examples of unifying their countries despite ethnic and other differences and undertaking credible political and economic strides. President Kagame’s leadership in Africa is a powerful testament to the benefits of prioritizing national unity and cohesive governance over ethnic division.

Towards a New Dawn: Envisioning a Unified Ethiopia

The solution to Ethiopia’s current impasse is twofold: an immediate ceasefire in the Amhara region and democratic provincial elections in the Amhara region by allowing the people to elect their representatives. More fundamentally, Ethiopia must undertake a profound structural reform by abolishing ethnic divisions and reinstating provincial boundaries led by governors, not presidents, as there should be only one president of Ethiopia. Ethiopia is the only country where regional states are called governments and administrators are called presidents. This is a recipe for disintegration similar to the one that took place in Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. This reform is crucial for Ethiopia to avoid the pitfalls of fragmentation and conflict that have befallen other nations.

Visionary Leadership for a Prosperous Ethiopia

As Ethiopia stands at a crossroads, the legacy of its leadership hangs in the balance. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is called upon to transcend reactionary measures and embody the visionary leadership that the moment demands. By embracing reforms that unify rather than divide, Ethiopia can forge a path toward lasting peace, prosperity, and a cohesive national identity.

A Clarion Call for Unity: Rethinking Ethiopia’s Future

Ethiopia’s journey towards peace and unity is fraught with challenges, yet it is a path that must be taken. The nation’s survival and prosperity hinge on its ability to transcend ethnic divisions and embrace a governance model that celebrates diversity as a strength, not a weakness. In this pivotal moment, Ethiopia’s leadership must seize the opportunity to steer the country away from the brink of fragmentation towards a future marked by harmony and collective aspiration. Only through bold action and a commitment to unity can Ethiopia hope to avert the tragedies of its past and realize the full potential of its diverse and vibrant populace. To emerge from this chaos, Ethiopia must embrace a comprehensive reform that transcends ethnic federalism, fostering a governance system that unites rather than divides, and prioritizing the collective well-being of all its citizens.

Ethiopia is the origin of humanity, center of great civilization, and one of the longest and independent surviving nations and it will continue despite machination by Egypt, other foreign and domestic enemies.

While the heinous murder of Hachalu Hundessa, Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen and others are tragic and sad, the perpetrator(s) of this criminal act should be brought to justice; however, the conflagration is due to Killil (segregation of people by ethnicity). TPLF, divide and rule system, Ethiopians are transformed into ethnic monsters instead of human beings.

Oromos without a doubt have historical grievances; Oromos like many other ethnic groups were discriminated and oppressed. Now the Oromos are in control of every echelon of government. So, what’s the problem? The problem is some Oromo leaders like Jawar want to be in charge, and they are using the Oromo youth to mastermind a violent change instead of using the ballot, where they are incapable of articulating any sensible solution to alleviate the economic and political problem facing the youth and people in general, except trying to make Ethiopia a slaughterhouse for Oromos and others. Often, they tantalize them to help them become another S. Sudan or Eritrea. Good luck in case it happens. Whatever the driving force, killing innocent people is a high crime in any religion and jurisprudence. The genesis of such behavior among Ethiopians was planted by TPLF in order to marginalize Oromos and others. Unfortunately, some Oromo, Amhara and other leaders conveniently want to forget this fact in order to grab power.

I also stated in the past that “Ethiopia cannot survive as a viable and peaceful nation under a Killil system. It will face more violence and disruption if the system is continued.”

One of the reasons for the current mayhem in Tigre, especially in major cities and towns is primarily due to Killil that made it possible for ethnic militia, and policing.

TPLF was able to build a strong army legally because of the ethnic federalism. Furthermore, the duty of a police officer is public safety irrespective of once religion or ethnicity. The police in in every ethnic enclaves think lives of other Ethiopians don’t matter. Ethiopians are being killed and burned alive for no apparent reason rather than being a different ethnic group. This is simply ethnic cleansing and the police, the police chief, and the mayor should be charged as such, as enablers and collaborators.

Despite being a product of Woyane indoctrination, the people should listen to the voices around the world that say, “Black Lives Matter”, and “All Lives Matter.”  Unfortunately, ethno-nationalist is preaching that other Ethiopian lives don’t matter. Vigilantes roaming around town are able to destroy property, kill and burn innocent people because they are given a free pass, often welcomed or aided and abetted by the local police force.

While we are deeply saddened by the untimely death of Hachalu, Dr. Mekonnen, General Tsige and others, the killers could be from any ethnic group or foreign enemy like Egypt that has been plotting to undertake similar action to thwart the building of the GERD. Unfortunately, any incident can spark an ethnic warfare. Any country or any group can spark such a conflict and destroy Ethiopia.  There is no reason to kill more innocent Oromos, Amhara or others. Thus, there has to be law and order in Ethiopia. If not, enemies of Ethiopia or ethnic agitators can start an ethnic war by simply killing any famous person. Ethiopians should not fall for such bait and get innocent people killed or burned alive by these angry mobs.

Dr. Abiy was warned about this ethnic inferno built by Woyanes and fanned by the likes of ethnonationalists from various sources that can implode anytime.

The ethnic system has to be dismantled and abandoned immediately. A merit system has to take its place. Nobody should be given a preferential treatment because of his or her ethnicity. It has been a major sore point during Meles, even during Haile Selassie.

Tigres, Amharas, Oromos or any group should be able to compete without any preferential treatment. Any preferential treatment for being born an Oromo, Tigre or Amhara should be eliminated. Such a system is anachronistic, unfair, and dangerous.

In the meantime, start training a police force that is professional and diverse, and representing all Ethiopians. Professionally trained Oromos, Amharas, Somalis, and other police officers should be able to work anywhere in Ethiopia. If they are lacking language, they should learn the local language and Amharic.

Dr. Abiy should bite the bullet and bring an end to chaos and Killil that displaced millions and resulted in the loss of so many innocent lives. Otherwise, it will continue to spread further like wildfire with devastating results.

Dr. Abiy inherited this evil and dangerous system; however, failing to take drastic action is an abdication of leadership and courage. Again, time is the essence for him to act decisively if he wants to save Ethiopia and his government.

Furthermore, it might be advisable to create a more economically integrated regional boundaries without any consideration to ethnicity or revert back to the old provincial system. The U.S. and other countries have states or provinces, and they seem to be working fine. Ethiopia should not be an exception to the rule for the wrong reason. In the long run, moving the capital city to a neutral location should be considered to provide better security, better planning, and the potential to reduce congestion.

Tribal based media and parties should be discouraged or banned, or there should be strict guidelines not to incite or promote tribalism, hate, and violence. Instead, they should focus on hard and factual news, besides promoting peace and economic advancement of all Ethiopians. The safest course would be to discourage even make it illegal to form a political party or media based on ethnicity because of their potential to incite further division and bloodshed like they did in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burma and other places.

I like the theme of “no more apartheid in Ethiopia” it means no more Killel or ethnic enclaves where minorities are suppressed and their human, civil and voting rights are denied. Without destroying Killel, you can’t save and create a peaceful and prosperous Ethiopia.

To kill ethnic divide, a good start could be a move back to provincial designation or to form economically integrated regions where go​verners are elected by the people based on issues where ethnic mongering or playing ethnic politics is prohibited or secondary to other important issues of commonality, Ethiopianism and peace. Furthermore, cities like Adam​a, Dire Dawa, Harrar and others, a mayor elected by the people run it or administer the city on behalf of the residents rather than tribal chief siting anywhere in the world.

Last but not least, federalize the militia immediately after the war. If Abiy can’t do these, he can’t be taken as a serious leader for Ethiopia. ​The indomitable, Hermela Aregawi is promoting Pan-Africanism with the #nomore movement and other venues, it will be unimaginable for Ethiopia to stay in a tribal and apartheid system and still promote Pan-Africanism. It will be a great contradiction and Abiy will be a laughingstock once people find out that he is running a tribal system or Killil , akin to Apartheid if not worse, while espousing pan-Africanism.

As a leader, Dr. Abiy is accountable to the current and future bloodshed despite the fact that he inherited the system from TPLF but failing to take drastic action will eventually erode his leadership and eventually his regime. In a previous blog entitled “Kill Killil” I said “time is the essence to act decisively and immediately to end the impending cloud of anarchy. Act today, as tomorrow may be too late to save lives and the whole country from imploding.” I hope he listens this time, as any time wasted can be catastrophic.

Ethiopia has an extremely long and extensive recorded history going back some thousands of years, however, economically remains one of the poorest. What is disturbing is even in 2018, there are millions of Ethiopians suffering from famine.

Ethiopia in its current form has existed since 1991 when Meles Zenawi through his TPLF (Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front) guerrillas overran the country and ruled until his death in 2012. He is most remembered for facilitating the separation of Eritrea, the introduction of toxic ethnic-based federalism that gave an advantage to his own tribe, and blocking access to the Internet.

On April 2nd, 2018 Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali became prime minister, after the resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn. His election is widely seen as positive and an opportunity to unite Ethiopia and address the wrongs of the past and improve the economic conditions for the extremely poor population of about 100 million.

The election of Abiy Ahmed may have saved Ethiopia from further bloodshed and disintegration; however, his chance of transforming the economic backwardness of Ethiopia, a legacy of poor governance from yesteryears, remains immensely difficult.

In 1996, in memory of the late Congressman Mikey Leland, who died on a hunger mission in Ethiopia, the U.S. Congress allocated $12 million dollars to put a broadband Internet in all universities and high schools in Ethiopia in order jump start Ethiopia’s famine-stricken society to a technology-driven economy. In the dawn of the Internet in the 1990’s, Ethiopia had the chance to leapfrog many nations and become a leading technology juggernaut in the likes of S. Korea, China, Singapore, and others.

However, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi blocked the grant because it stipulated open access and competitive bidding for the installation of the network. He was primarily afraid of social media to mobilize the masses against his authoritarian rule. This shortsighted greed resulted in the loss of the possibility of incredible advancement and incalculable damage was done to the economy. Because of TPLF’s restrictive and monopolistic policy, Ethiopia has one of the lowest Internet penetration in the world even less than the failed state of Somalia.

In Ethiopia, many children are stunted physically and intellectually because of malnutrition. While TPLF was able to improve infrastructure, its toxic ethnic policy restricted the free flow of trade and exacerbated the economic divide and created mass misery.

To grow the economy, the current government is promoting manufacturing by inviting companies from China, Turkey, India, and others by enticing them with low wages and tax breaks. Dr. Abiy should prioritize direct foreign investment in high technology transfer jobs rather than low-wage manufacturing to provide a platform for a sustainable economic development.

The normal trajectory of moving from agriculture to manufacturing is no more an option for Ethiopia. Because of TPLF’s fear of social media and denial of access to technology, Ethiopia failed to enjoy the full benefit of the digital revolution. Given this failure, Ethiopia has no time to go through these stages and catch up with the rest of the world technologically and economically. Jumping to the Fourth Industrial Revolution will accelerate its economic and technological development, save it from future famine, ecological damage emanating from manufacturing, and massive economic disruption that arises in the phase-out of manufacturing.

Manufacturing undertaken by Chinese and other companies will not save Ethiopia from its permanent third-rated status or fill empty stomachs. Huajian is one of the most celebrated Chinese Company with over 5000 employees. According to AP “Amazing China” (May 2, 2018), Ebissa Gari, a 22-year-old employee of Huajian, earns 966 Birr ($35) a month. The average worker at Huajian factory earns $50 a month despite the fact that according to Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, a basic living wage is about 3000 Birr or ($109) a month in Ethiopia. On the other hand, Artificial Intelligence (AI) specialists with little or no industry experience can make between $300,000 and $500,000 a year in salary and stock. “Top names can receive compensation packages that extend into the millions” according to NYT (April 19, 2018).

In order to catch up with the rest of the world, Ethiopia needs to take a leap to the fourth Industrial Revolution that focuses on robotics, AI, nanotechnology, the blockchain, biotechnology, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, and 3D-printing, while not totally discounting manufacturing. The government should prioritize the introduction of the Fourth Industrial Revolution by opening up Internet access, broadband, and Research and Development in these areas.

The increased productivity, efficiency, lower operating costs and high wages are a product of access to technology. The Heritage Foundation, recently reported that economic growth had not been enjoyed evenly by all Ethiopians and it argued that more economic freedom is needed to grow the economy and to reduce civil strife.

Ethiopia is a very poor country by any standard and sits at the bottom of the ladder in all barometers. Many articles have been written with glowing statistics about Ethiopia’s fast-growing economy around 10%. In 1994, Ethiopia’s GDP was only $6.93 Billion; however, as of 2015, Ethiopia GDP stood at $72.4 Billion, a ten-fold increase according to TPLF data. This means GDP should have doubled every two years in the last two decades, which is unprecedented and improbable. Still, GDP of $72.4 Billion for a country of 100 million is not very impressive compared to Apple Inc.’s $72.6 billion income earned before taxes in 2015.

Given the state of the economy and technology, Ethiopia is at the pre-industrial stage where Britain was in the 1840’s. Unless Ethiopia skips some steps, it will need hundreds (100) of years to catch up. Of course, this assumes the rest of the world will stand still and wait for Ethiopia. For example, at a reasonable growth rate of 5%, Ethiopia will need 177 years to catch up with the U.S. growing at an average of 2.5% holding everything constant. At a 10% rate, it will take 60.5 years. The calculation is derived using a per capita of $50,000 for the U.S and $700 for Ethiopia.

Technology has the potential to be a tremendous tool in advancing the well-being of mankind, by improving quality of life and lifting standard of living. Access to technology allows us to work from anywhere and improves productivity. The progress of industrial revolution from the steam engine, electric power, and digital and information technology is the foundation for the fourth industrial revolution.

Artificial intelligence will be pervasive based on autonomous products from cars to robots. In the next two decades over 80% of the jobs will be AI and IT driven. AI will increasingly take over mundane tasks to the most sophisticated including fabrication, surgery and ground and space warfare.

According to Global Information Technology 2016, Ethiopia is 120th out of 139 countries in the Network Readiness Index (NRI) which measures access to latest technologies to individuals, businesses, and government, ease of starting a business, the efficiency of the legal system, infrastructure, capacity for innovation and more. Ethiopia’s ranking could have been much better had it not been for TPLF’s fear of technology and lack of interest in advancing Ethiopia’s technological and digital capability.

Sophia the robot and Dr. Abiy’s meetup is a promising sign. Dr. Abiy’s willingness to visit Sophia is an indication of his appreciation of the importance of technology, especially AI that encompasses autonomous or self-driving cars, nanotechnology, digital fabrication, the blockchain, biotechnology and more. In addition, IT will become more accessible to a larger part of the population and cheaper like the rest of the world if Dr. Abiy’s privatization plan proceeds with speed. Sophie visiting Addis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp4SnCVFYl0

The technology revolution is taking place at a breakneck speed lead by Artificial intelligence, Internet of things, the cloud, and 3D-printing. Ethiopians need to demand unfettered access to technology and the Internet as a right for their survival and to avoid future famines.

Dr. Abiy needs to leapfrog Ethiopia to the fourth Industrial Revolution, stop Internet censorship, and unleash innovation to create a better future for Ethiopia. If he does not leverage the technology revolution, grow the economy with open competition, transparency, with respect to property rights, unfettered access to technology and the Internet, he will leave Ethiopia with a distressed economy and with more hungry and angry people.

Leveraging technology underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution will create a strong and sustainable economic foundation. The people who generate the wealth (the next Apple, Google, etc.), the carpenters, the risk takers and inventors should be marveled and appreciated much more than others. After all, it will be the efforts of all hard working and creative Ethiopians with a strong work ethics that will propel Ethiopia to be an economic and technological juggernaut.

There should be a silver lining to the AGOA situation. Ethiopia can move from manufacturing to a high-tech country for more sustainable development. When France refused to sell planes and parts to Israel during the Six-Day War, Israel immediately opted to build its airplanes and technology not to be hostage again. Consequently, with a population of 9 million, Israel is a powerhouse of technology and one of the strongest economies in the Middle East.

Industrial Parks are not sustainable solutions
Industrial parks, as they are set up now, are transients. They are temporary solutions to unemployment. Ethiopia uses cheap labor to attract companies to establish cloth and textile-driven manufacturing plants. Manufacturing plants based on labor alone are transient and do not provide good or living wages or sustainable solutions; like rivers; they flow in one direction with cheap labor. Most of the manufacturing plants moved from China, Bangladesh, and other regions to take advantage of cheap labor in Ethiopia. I am sure they will move whenever such an opportunity arises anywhere else. The life expectancy of industrial parks can be cut short and leave people without Jobs and the area with environmental damages. Of course, the suggestion is not to dismantle such plants immediately but to transition to a long and lasting solution to Ethiopia’s economic woes.

 Ethiopia can be like Israel, China, and other Asian tigers in 10-15 years by planting the seeds for sustainable development bolstered by technology. Turning Industrial Parks into technology parks or hubs by fostering and promoting innovation for technology, where a high density of startup companies, engineers, and other innovators cluster together to produce goods and services driven by markets can be the solution. Besides technology parks, universities and cities can provide co-working spaces for technology hubs and incubators with funds supplied by diaspora, private companies, and the government for equity interest or loans. Alternatively, the Ethiopian government can issue bonds to sell to the diaspora or the diaspora can set up their own venture capital to fund these projects.

Moving to the Fourth Industrial Revolution is the Solution

 To catch up with the rest of the world, Ethiopia needs to leap to the fourth Industrial Revolution that focuses on robotics, AI, nanotechnology, blockchain, biotechnology, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, and others without totally discounting manufacturing. The government should prioritize the introduction of the Fourth Industrial Revolution by opening up Internet access, broadband, and Research and Development in these areas.

To grow the economy, the current government is promoting manufacturing by inviting companies from China, Turkey, India, and others by enticing them with low wages and tax breaks. Dr. Abiy should prioritize direct foreign investment in high technology transfer jobs rather than low-wage manufacturing to provide a platform for sustainable economic development.

The typical trajectory of moving from agriculture to manufacturing is no more an option for Ethiopia. Because of TPLF’s fear of social media and denial of access to technology, Ethiopia failed to enjoy the full benefit of the digital revolution. Given this failure, Ethiopia has no time to go through these stages and catch up with the rest of the world technologically and economically. Jumping to the Fourth Industrial Revolution will accelerate its economic and technological development, save it from future famine, ecological damage emanating from manufacturing, and massive economic disruption that arises in manufacturing phase-out.

Manufacturing undertaken by Chinese and other companies will not save Ethiopia from its permanent third-rated status or fill empty stomachs. Huajian is one of the most celebrated Chinese Companies with over 5000 employees. According to AP “Amazing China” (May 2, 2018), Ebissa Gari, a 22-year-old employee of Huajian, earns 966 Birr ($35) a month. The average worker at Huajian factory earns $50 a month. According to Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, a basic living wage was about 3000 Birr or ($109) a month in Ethiopia. On the other hand, Artificial Intelligence (AI) specialists with little or no industry experience can make between $300,000 and $500,000 a year in salary and stock. “Top names can receive compensation packages that extend into the millions” (NYT, April 19, 2018).

The increased productivity, efficiency, lower operating costs, and high wages are a product of access to technology. The Heritage Foundation recently reported that not all Ethiopians had enjoyed economic growth evenly. It argued that more economic freedom is needed to grow the economy and reduce civil strife.

Ethiopia will need 177 years to catch up with the U.S

Given the economy and the state of technology, Ethiopia is pre-industrial, where Britain was in the 1840s. Unless Ethiopia skips some steps, it will need hundreds (100) of years to catch up. Of course, this assumes the rest of the world will stand still and wait for Ethiopia. For example, at a reasonable growth rate of 5%, Ethiopia will need 177 years to catch up with the U.S. growing at an average of 2.5% holding everything constant. At a 10% rate, it will take 60.5 years. The calculation is derived using a per capita of $50,000 for the U.S and $700 for Ethiopia.

Technology has the potential to be a tremendous tool in advancing the well-being of humankind by improving the quality of life and lifting the standard of living. Leveraging technology allows us to work from anywhere and enhances productivity. The progress of the industrial revolution from the steam engine, electric power, and digital and information technology is the foundation for the fourth industrial revolution.

 Over 80% of the jobs will be AI and IT-driven in the next two decades.

Artificial intelligence will be pervasive based on autonomous products, from cars to robots. Over 80% of the jobs will be AI and IT-driven in the next two decades. AI will increasingly take over mundane tasks to the most sophisticated, including fabrication, surgery, and ground and space warfare.

 Ethiopia is 120th out of 139 countries in the Network Readiness Index (NRI)

According to Global Information Technology 2016, Ethiopia is 120th out of 139 countries in the Network Readiness Index (NRI), which measures access to the latest technologies to individuals, businesses, and government, ease of starting a business, the efficiency of the legal system, infrastructure, capacity for innovation and more. Ethiopia’s ranking could have been much better had it not been for TPLF’s fear of technology and lack of interest in advancing Ethiopia’s technological and digital capability.

Leveraging technology underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution will create a solid and sustainable economic foundation. The people who generate the wealth (the next Apple, Google, etc.), the carpenters, the risk-takers, and inventors should be appreciated much more than talking heads or politicians. After all, the hard-working and creative Ethiopians with strong work ethics will be the catalyst to propel Ethiopia to be an economic and technical juggernaut.

The technology revolution is taking place at a breakneck speed led by Artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, the cloud, and 3D printing. Ethiopians need to demand unfettered access to technology and the internet as a right for their survival and to avoid future famines.

Dr. Abiy needs to leapfrog Ethiopia to the fourth Industrial Revolution and unleash innovation to create a better future for Ethiopia. If he does not leverage the technology revolution, grow the economy with open competition, transparency, property rights, and unfettered access to technology and the internet, he will leave Ethiopia with a distressed economy and more hungry and angry people.

Dula Abdu, a retired banker, economist and is the founder of a non-profit that promotes access to technology to underserved communities. Currently supports underserved schools in the US and in Ethiopia by providing a STEM-based educational database that works without the internet. The article was adapted from a previous article entitled “Ethiopia needs to leapfrog to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

When my wife decided to go to Ethiopia with our three kids to see their grandparents despite my reservation, I decided to go on a vacation somewhere else too. I flew to Cuba with my oldest daughter. While I was in Cuba I felt at peace with no fear or concern for our safety, on the other hand, I was worried about the safety of my family in Ethiopia and the safety of the Ethiopian people as a whole.

I had a mixed feeling about Cuba which could be described as a fascination for its revolutionary spirit but disdain for its failure to adopt like the Chinese or Vietnamese to usher a vibrant mixed economy.

Unlike many places that I visited I found the Cuban people especially in Havana color-blind and respectful of foreigners and each other regardless of color or sex. You see women walking by themselves the dead of night without fear despite the absence of police like other major cities.  Street after street I saw Cuban kids; black, mulattos and white playing like any kids with no inkling about their color or gender.

Whether you go to the beaches, parks, clubs or other places the idea that someone is paying attention to you about your pigmentation or gender seems to disappear because you just become a human being. Of course, as a tourist you have to be careful not to be taken advantage of by taxis or anyone else.  Nonetheless, you have no fear of being robbed or attacked.

One of my biggest disappointments when visiting Ethiopia last August was traffic pollution and potholes. In Cuba the roads are wide, clean and I did not see one pothole during my range of travel, which included both cities and the country side like valley of  Viñales. One of the reasons for the smooth traffic could be linked to government control of imports and exorbitant tariffs. This is despite the fact that one of  the dreams of many Cubans is to own a car.

Cuba like Ethiopia is a resource poor country, despite that you don’t see homeless Cuban, beggars, and I am told by many Cubans that no one in Cuba goes to bed hungry.

Despite many interesting aspects about Cuba, its telecom system is terrible and the economy is stagnant instead of growing given Cuba’s highly educated workforce. You see elaborate and eye-catching mansions, buildings and homes unkempt but still being occupied. Just a nice paint or selling some of them to private owners will bring them alive. Since they are government owned it takes a long, long time to address such neglect.

Cuba’s free healthcare and free education system have created an equal and intelligent society. What Cuba needs to do is unleash its massive human capital without destroying its almost color-blind society and highly egalitarian system.

For countries in Africa, they should look to Cuba to embody the mantra of live and let live and coexistence while creating a level playing field for their citizens under a benign free market system.

Despite the history of master and slave legacy, the white, blacks and the mulatto communities in Cuba have integrated to form a cohesive society. They regard the Cuban nationality as their citizenry and don’t identify as ethnic groups.

In Ethiopia, the road that Dr. Abiy chose is the correct way. Partial privatization and lessening ethnic animosity or differences, that was magnified and exploited by TPLF will bring peace economic growth, and prosperity at last. Leveling the playing field for all Ethiopians regardless of their religion or ethnicity and respecting individual rights is the only path to peace.  It also shows that with the right leadership it is possible to overcome ethnic, economic and other challenges and create a peaceful and sustainable economy for all citizens.

Despite Cuba’s some shortcomings, it is wonderful that there is a place that you don’t have to look over your shoulder because of your ethnicity or gender. I hope Ethiopia will move towards an ethnic-blind society while firing its economic engines to address years of economic malaise and neglect to transform itself as leading technological and economic power in Africa. Ethiopians should strive to lift the stigma of being known a country of famine, displacement and ethnic conflicts. Without a doubt, Ethiopia’s failure to build a democratic institution will be catastrophic to all ethnic groups, both small and large. The world is eager to see the cradle of mankind ascend to the mecca of democracy. To get there, Ethiopians should listen to peace makers instead of prophets of hate and ethnic agitators if they want survive and thrive.

Source:Wikipedia

Ethiopians and the diaspora may have decided the winner in the senatorial race in Georgia. The margin of victory between senatorial candidates Herschel Walker and Senator Warnock was less than 96000. It was close to the number of Ethiopians living in the Atlanta metro and a lot less than the total African diaspora population in Georgia.

Even though there was controversy about whether to support Senator Warnock or not, it was obvious that many Ethiopians decided to support Warnock over Walker given his connection to the King’s legacy and lack of interest by the Republican Party in attracting diaspora and minority votes.

It is alleged that close to 100000 Ethiopian live in Atlanta alone. The total population of the diaspora that claims roots in Africa including Ethiopians, Eritreans, Nigerians, and People from the Caribbean is estimated to be over a quarter of a million.

Thus one can conclude the margin of victory in a swing state like Georgia may have come from the diaspora population. Ethiopians and their cohorts organized under an umbrella organization AEPAC (American-Ethiopian Political Action Committee) can have a strong impact and make a strong presence in politics in the USA. The political influence of AEPAC and the diaspora is bound to increase going forward in a number of swing states. It is also worth remembering that in 2020, President Biden won Georgia by less than 12000 votes.

Ethiopians have shown their power in recent elections. They played an essential role in helping flip the governor’s race in Virginia and in helping defeat representative Tom Malinowski, who drafted a very anti-Ethiopian Bill, HR6600.

Ethiopians are becoming an important player in American politics because of the formation of a PAC, the American-Ethiopian Public Affairs Committee (AEPAC). Through AEPAC, they have flexed their power in American politics by making a contribution and organizing Ethiopians and other Diasporas.

During the midterm election, most of the candidates AEPAC supported won. Out of 35 candidates, AEPAC supported 32 won their race. This includes 20 house members, four senators, and two governors.

The demographic situation and the political divide in the US empower organized groups like the American Israelis, Cuban and other groups.

The Ethiopians have a strong advantage given they are spread out exceptionally well throughout the US. Unlike Cubans who are concentrated in one state, Florida, Ethiopians on the other hand are located in major swing states like Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and more.

Both the Democratic and the Republican parties need to be cognizant of this fact in order to control congress and the white house. Of course, the diaspora population needs to hone on this message to both parties so that they give due credence and acknowledgment to the diaspora, especially to AEPAC

Ethiopians are the new kingmakers in US politics. With their recent success in helping flip the governor’s race in Virginia and in helping defeat representative Tom Malinowski, who drafted a very anti-Ethiopian Bill, HR6600, Ethiopians are becoming a force to be reckoned with in the US.

Formation of AEPAC

Ethiopians are becoming a consequential player in American politics with the formation of a PAC, the American-Ethiopian Public Affairs Committee (AEPAC). Through AEPAC, they have become influential in American politics by fundraising and organizing Ethiopians to vote. 

Unlike Cubans, who had a concentration mainly in Florida, or Armenians in California, the Ethiopians are spread out exceptionally well. They have become a significant voting bloc, especially in swing states, by registering Ethiopians and other Africans, including Eritreans. Once Florida went red, Cubans lost their leverage thanks to Governor Desanto, whose success is based on oppressing minority votes and gerrymandering.

Ethiopians Versus Cubans

Ethiopians, unlike Cubans, reside in many critical swing states like Georgia, Virginia, Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, and more. By organizing Ethiopians, Eritreans, and other people of African origin, Ethiopians are making their presence felt financially and with their votes. Most of the candidates they supported in the midterm election won, which is essential for any political PAC. This includes 20 house members, four senators, and two governors. Tight races in Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, and other states show the importance of any organized group like Ethiopians that has the potential to deliver a bloc of votes. Their candidates include Republicans like Chris Smith of New Jersey and Democrats like Sheila Jackson Lee of Houston, TX.

Georgia is a Battle Ground and the Role of Ethiopians

Now that all eyes are on Georgia, the importance of Ethiopian vote for either party remains critical. In the midterm election, disappointed with Senator Warnock’s ambivalent position on Ethiopia and Hershel Walker’s lack of sophistication in foreign policy forced them to stay neutral. Their role remains critical in the presidential election, where Biden eked out a crucial win in 2020 with 11000 votes to win Georgia. Without the support of Ethiopians, who number close to 100,000, and cohorts such as the Eritreans, Caribbean, and other Africans, Democrats can lose the senate and the presidential races in Georgia. So far, neither Democrats nor Republicans realized the potential impact of the Ethiopian vote. In 2020 Ethiopians voted overwhelmingly for Democrats disgusted with Trump’s vulgar language regarding Africa and his support for the Egyptian dictator, who is acting as the new Gadhafi by aligning with dictators and supporting anti-government rebels in Ethiopia and elsewhere.

Ignoring Ethiopians can be Costly to Both Parties.

Until the demographic of the various swing states changes where Ethiopians reside, Ethiopians will potentially be the new kingmakers in American politics, dwarfing any diaspora organizations. Failure by Democrats and Republicans to realize this new Ethiopian political power could be costly, especially in swing states. 

Dula Abdu is a US-based writer on foreign policy and economics and chair for AEPAC-TX.  

Former U.S. ambassadors to Ethiopia and some Western institutions are lambasting Ethiopia based on information gleaned from social media or their contacts, enlisted during the last three decades of TPLF rule, an ethnic cabal famous for silencing the opposition, disinformation and dazzling Westerners.

Critics of the current reformist government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia are responsible  for propagating misinformation, creating an impression of a monster regime bent on abusing its citizens in Tigray by serving as a conduit for the TPLF, which created the current unstable and conflict-laden environment in the country, not only by firing the first shots at the various military barracks in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia , but also by establishing ethnic federalism that has been the main source of ethnic conflicts and of displacement of millions of people around the country.

Western Critics use Unreliable Sources and engage in Exaggerated Narratives

One of the major problems with Westerners is their failure to differentiate between the people of Tigray, and the TPLF Junta, which was an “equal opportunity oppressor” of the people of Tigray and Ethiopia. Most of the critics of Dr. Abiy are members of the junta, as well as friends and beneficiaries. If the Junta really cared, millions of people in Tigray would not have remained dependent on international food aid to this day.

Furthermore, crying foul by external critics and internal detractors of PM Ahmed over the presence of Eritrean troops is a clear illustration of a double standard. The U.S. or its Ambassadors to Ethiopia, for example, never complained when Ethiopians troops went to Somalia to fight Al Shebab at the behest of America and other Western countries, or found fault with the U.S. presence in Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, S. Korea, Japan, or Europe.

Eritrea Saved the Horn from Imploding with Chaos

If Eritrea is present in the northern region of Tigray at the invitation of Ethiopia, there is no reason to deride Eritrea based on unproven Twitter and social media allegations of misconduct. If it were not for Eritrea, Ethiopia and the whole Horn of Africa might have imploded with violence and social upheaval. Besides warning Sudan and Egypt not to take advantage of Ethiopia while at war with a rebellious regional government in the north (Tigray), Eritrea enabled Ethiopia to end the conflict in a matter of weeks by allowing Ethiopian troops to retreat and regroup in Eritrea.

From all indications, it is clear that there is an organized effort to distort facts and portray Ethiopia in a negative image, to the extent of branding it as an aggressor or provocateur of war in the media. This is true even in the eyes of some members of the U.S. Congress. Such a narrative is orchestrated by agents of TPLF and their highly organized PR machine in the U.S. and Europe.

Critics of Ethiopia were Coopted or Hoodwinked by TPLF

Critics like Susan Stigant of USIP charged that Ethiopia may be characterized as a failed state during a congressional testimony last December. But she failed to mention that it is the system, which many of the current critics supported during the 27 years of TPLF’s minority ethnic rule that is responsible for the predicament in which Ethiopia finds itself today. Ms. Stigant and her colleagues failed to condemn such system despite numerous warnings and pleas from the opposition about the danger of creating ethnic federalism in Ethiopia, which the TPLF championed while governing under an ethnic-based oligarchy.

The disinformation about the war in Tigray and Eritrea’s involvement in it is fanned by TPLF social media, critics, and friends of TPLF in the academia, and in some diplomatic circles. For example, BBC apologized to Dr. Abiy Ahmed for falsely accusing him of a plan to bomb civilians in Tigray, based on uncorroborated report.  The Washington Post discovered that TPLF agents took over or monopolized the Twitter traffic with their false narrative portraying Ethiopia as the aggressor and then demanding a ceasefire when TPLF started losing the war. This was also to obfuscate the fact that TPLF initiated the war by killing Ethiopian soldiers, many of them while in sleep at their military posts guarding the international border with neighboring Eritrea, looting their equipment, and forcing the rest to flee naked to Eritrea.

TPLF PR and Money Spread Disinformation

The TPLF Junta ruled the country for 27 years by using a strategy of silencing the Ethiopian Diaspora and muzzling the domestic opposition from revealing its criminal enterprise, which included stealing from Ethiopia billions, and disproportionately controlling the military and commerce, and other parastatals, as well as powerful state agencies. Consequently, most of the billionaires and millionaires in Ethiopia today are Tigrayans, though they constitute only 6% of the population.

Many intellectuals and government representatives, such as Tony Blair of Great Britain, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, Nobel Laureates, and others were victims of a highly organized PR propaganda that prevented them from acknowledging the plight of the Ethiopian people as they were fed with distorted narratives. To show their power, recently TPLF agents supposedly garnered over 2300 signatures from “who’s who” in academia and other professions around the world in less than a week to sign in support of TPLF narratives, leading some political pundits  in Europe and the USA to demand Ethiopia to stop defending itself; EU suspended aid to Ethiopians a result. One wonders what Ethiopia would have looked like if TPLF’s coup attempt succeeded.

Should Ethiopian Soldiers Have Surrendered to TPLF?

As a historical illustration, the American Civil War was started when Southern rebels attacked federal forces. Would a reasonable person ever expect Lincoln to acquiesce to the confederate takeover, slavery, or the breakup of the Union? Some countries including the U.S. engage in preemptive attacks against an enemy because of perceived threat or fear without the other party firing one single shot. However, Ethiopia was blamed for responding in a proportionate and calculated manner while protecting civilians and historical sites, and for coming to the rescue of its soldiers.

Another illustration is the recent attack on Capitol Hill by white nationalists and supporters of former President Trump, which was condemned universally, but none of you condemned the TPLF attack using thanks, rockets, and machine guns to slaughter Ethiopian soldiers while asleep, or even the most recent Sudanese invasion of Ethiopian territory for that matter.

In an interview with BBC, US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Tibor Nagy, had corroborated that Ethiopia was attacked, its soldiers were killed, and its military hardware looted. We believe most of your colleagues have access to the same information as that of the diplomat. The false narrative focusing on Ethiopia and Eritrea without mentioning this egregious TPLF heinous crime against Ethiopian soldiers is demonstrably biased and unforgiveable. To attack a poor country like Ethiopia, USIP,  CSIS and other U.S. agencies are often fooled by propaganda hatched and disseminated by agents of the former regime. For many Ethiopians, TPLF was the worst regime ever came to power in Ethiopia, and some even compare it to Khmer Rouge and other notorious regimes around the world. TPLF posed a mortal danger to the survival of Ethiopia as a state and brought untold misery and agony on the Ethiopian people without the world ever realizing it.

TPLF Left Ethiopia Ungovernable and Unlivable

I argue that the TPLF regime and the ethnic federalism it created, which some of you fervently supported, made Ethiopia unstable, unlivable, ungovernable, and difficult to live in, to trade or travel for the majority of Ethiopians due to the ethnic animosity the system created.

Ethiopians are deeply dismayed about the Western media and the disinformation campaign they are waging against Ethiopia by relying on opinions of so-called regional experts, who have very limited knowledge about the complexities of politics, economics, and history of the Horn of Africa. For instance, Alex De Waal, a British national at Tuft’s university, memorialized Seyoum Mesfin, the politburo   member and foreign minister of TPLF and the architect of the coup.  Martin Plaut, another former BBC correspondent, reported, “The Ethiopian government stole the Ark of Covenant from Axum and executed 750 priests in front of the church.” This false statement could only have come from the most zealous supporter of the TPLF, not a professional journalist who reports for one of the most renowned foreign news agencies. As a longtime observer of Ethiopian politics, I know these statements are not based on facts but on fabricated, partisan accounts that normally originate from agents of the TPLF. I also suggest in the strongest terms possible that you read the distorted reporting of the Economist, another British magazine’s innuendo alleging that Ethiopia is deliberately starving the people of Tigray to win the war.

Ethiopians Dismayed by Western Critics and Media

Because of these and many negative portrayals of Ethiopia, American citizens of Ethiopian descent here in the states feel that our country of origin is becoming the “punching bag” of the Western media. We feel that Ethiopia is not getting a fair treatment by Western media and so-called Ethiopian experts of foreign backgrounds. Of course, TPLF built a huge PR machine, a strong relationship in the media and other important places during the last 30-40 years using stolen funds from the country and was able to stifle the voices of the opposition. As a result, we are very concerned about the continuous distortion of facts, disinformation, and the appearance of a double standard used against Ethiopia. We regard USIP, CSIP, and former American Ambassadors to Ethiopia as allies only if they take the time to check all the facts on the ground and not be swayed by disinformation and past personal relationships that they built with some members of the criminal TPLF regime.

Social media-driven misinformation against vaccination, election, and other issues are causing considerable discord and fear in America; however, the impact of disinformation on Ethiopia could be very destabilizing and catastrophic. In a country with more schism because of the country’s constitution that is gerrymandering ethnic groups into enclaves, it is easy to drop a match to burn the whole country.

In 2018, a glimpse of hope for democracy and unity rose above the Ethiopian horizon, with the election of Dr. Abiy Ahmed, who quickly went to work to correct the wrongs of TPLF.  He immediately established peace with Eritrea, released thousands of political prisoners, and invited opposition parties in exile to join him in transforming the country. Unfortunately, this did not go well with Tigray Peoples Liberation Front or TPLF, so they fled to Tigray, the province they represented.  On the morning of November 3, 2020, TPLF forces attacked Ethiopian troops while asleep, killed thousands, and took more prisoners to overthrow the Abiy government. UN:TPLF’s pre-emptive strike started the war.

TPLF Ruled as an Ethnic Cabal

TPLF ruled Ethiopia with an iron fist for 27 years. They designed and implemented various tactics to destroy Ethiopia’s social fabric and national identity, including denigrating its former leaders and history. close to what Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia. Unlike the Khmer Rouge, TPLF operated as an ethnic cabal, controlling every aspect of the government, army, economy, and foreign policy establishments, even though TPLF accounted for only 6% of the population. Many government officials became billionaires and millionaires by embezzling while Ethiopians starved. TPLF family members and loyalists took advantage of government-funded scholarships at home and abroad, thus becoming the country’s wealthiest and the best educated. They called all the shots.  Nothing happened without their approval, whether opening a business, hiring, firing or even enforcing the law. In effect, they were the judge, jury, and executioners.

Foreign Media is Being Hoodwinked

Boko Haram victims were placed in Axum, and the photograph was shared with Amnesty International and BBC; unfortunately, both published this false report Click here to read more.

While any atrocities should be condemned and independently investigated, there are indications TPLF supporters are going beyond reporting such atrocities but fabricating. Pictures of Boko Haram victims in Nigeria are photo-shopped with a caption to make them appear victims in Tigray and sent to social media, to CNN, BBC, Amnesty International, and other organizations.

Michael Berhe aka Woldemariam, an imposter orthodox priest, falsely claimed he was in Axum to witness a massacre. He is lives in Boston, and he is a catholicMicheal Berhe Video.

A former TPLF soldier named Mona Liza told  BBC and Aljazeera that she was attacked by Eritrean soldiers but was wounded in combat with Ethiopian soldiers in the Raya zone, according to her father. TPLF supporters show a picture of a plane shot down in Ukraine as evidence of TPLF’s success in downing the Ethiopian plane BBC -on Fake News. Michael Berhe living in Boston, claims he witnessed a massacre in Axum and sends out a video that is picked up by BBC and Amnesty International. These and some real atrocities have generated a massive backlash against the Ethiopian government, which claims it is only engaged in law enforcement operations after a coup attempt, not attacking civilians. Worse supporters of the TPLF, such as Martin Plaut and Alex De Waal, and other friends are engaged in fabrications. For example, Martin Plaut tweeted on January 9, 2021, stating that 750 individuals and priests were taken out of the church and massacred to steal the Ark of the Covenant from the Axum Zion Church. The church denied all of his allegations. Alex De Waal claimed that the Ethiopian government is deliberately starving Tigray’s people, despite the government spending billions in meeting this need. One other ridiculous lie was a post claiming that the U.S. is going to Bomb Ethiopia: Click here to read.

Martin Plaut falsely alleged Ethiopia massacred 750 people to steal the Ark of the Covenant.

TPLF supporters mastered the art of fabricating stories through their domestic and foreign surrogates and supporters (Lawrence Freeman-Disinformation Campaign by TPLF). So far, the Ethiopian government is not responding to or countering these allegations, and the media is not doing an excellent job in investigating or checking TPLF sources or informants. Most of their sources are setups or TPLF soldiers who fled to Sudan as refugees. TPLF supporters are banging on the doors of Congress, the White House, and the UN to sanction Ethiopia, often based on unsubstantiated charges. Martin Plaut caught teaching according to the attached video https://youtu.be/LKlDCoosMfM?t=200 TPLF supporters how to fool the western media by creating plausible or fabricated videos and documentaries about Ethiopia. He said most media outlets are hungry for news about Ethiopia, especially VOA and BBC Amharic services.  In the same idea, Dr.  Natalia Vasquez, an Eritrean government critique shares her finding where TPLF forced Eritrean refugees to dress like Eritrean troops and forced them to slash the breasts of innocent women. The purpose was to ascribe the blame to Eritrean troops. Please note the video is mostly in Amharic.

Weaponizing Disinformation to Punish Ethiopia

TPLF is weaponizing disinformation to shame and charge Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers with a massacre, with a crime against humanity, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and more without corroboration. Furthermore, they are appealing to the international community to impose economic sanctions on Ethiopia. This does not mean that combatants from either side or both sides don’t commit such crimes, but the fabrication makes it difficult for the truth to be told.

Unfortunately, TPLF may have mastered the art of disinformation. At first, they targeted Eritreans, now Ethiopia. Daily, TPLF is sharing with BBC and others unbelievable crime videos involving Ethiopian troops. Here is another storytelling how TPLF fabricates:  Refugees forced to dress up as Eritrean troops to make a false documentary

In one episode, you see Ethiopian soldiers digging a grave and throwing TPLF soldiers and shooting them inside the tomb, and one of the soldiers is heard saying, don’t waste no more than one bullet for each. Ethiopian soldiers are not monolotic, each unit and division is represented by various ethnic groups. So there is likely Tigrayan officers who not let such atrocities take place and for one 

In another location, Ethiopian soldiers are seen shooting civilians and throwing them over the cliff. Ethiopian soldiers record all these and share them with TPLF and to the media. Both videos start and stop as if they have been put together in a studio.

This criminal act is unbelievable that any soldier with the right mind, let alone a professional soldier, will commit such crimes against their own people and share them with the media. The conclusion is that TPLF is concocting and fabricating these videos to shame Ethiopia and to seek UN and US intervention, and put economic sanctions.

Massacre of Ethiopian Soldiers / Waging a Coup d’état

TPLF staged an unsuccessful coup, resulting in thousands of Ethiopian troops’ death and the looting of Ethiopia’s military equipment. Due to the war with Eritrea from 1988-2000, most Ethiopian forces and equipment were located in Tigray. Many Ethiopian soldiers were killed while asleep, and others were shot after they refused to join the coup d’état. Those who survived and fled narrated their predicament with tears, describing the horror as betrayal, humiliation, and being condemned to death at the hands of their comrades or fellow Ethiopians who happened to be from a different ethnic group. To isolate the soldiers and finish them off, TPLF disabled all communication networks, forcing surviving units to defend themselves during 8-12 days without food, water, or any supplies.

Impact of the conflict

Now the conflict has resulted in making an already precarious life more portentous. Close to two million people in Tigray were already reliant on international aid. Locusts wiped some of the crops, and most of the remaining harvest was disrupted because of the war. The six million people living in Tigray are in danger of starving because of the conflict. The blame for this tragedy should lie squarely on the TPLF that created the condition for both the war and oppressive and corruption-riddled governance for 27 years.

TPLF’s Seasoned PR Machine

The current Ethiopian government being new, does not yet have the sophistication to articulate or frame the issues and influence media reports. Consequently, it is being simmered by TPLF’s surrogates, vast networks, highly educated elites, and massive resources. In the past, the PR effort by TPLF has swayed many political luminaries, such as Tony Blair and Jimmy Carter, and academicians to support their oppressive and anti-democratic system without a wince. Now the PR machine is in full display, leveraging social media like Twitter, as exposed by the Washington Post on Twitter War by TPLF Supporter.

As Washington Post reported, TPLF planned the coup well in advance, as evidenced in the Twitter attack that started at the outset of the war and was continuing after that. TPLF knew a coup would be brutal to sell to the international community, so it set up a PR machine to sell it before starting the war. TPLF supporters monopolized the Twitter narrative immediately in the wee hours of the war to shape the agenda in their favor. That continues to this day.

 TPLF Motto was filled with Greed and Arrogance

The majority of Ethiopians detests TPLF’s rule because they thought of themselves as having a God-given right to rule and abuse. There was no mercy and shame in their heart. To achieve such power, they devised ethnic federalism, a divide, and rule system like Apartheid that kept all ethnic groups at bay and to feud against each other. TPLF is still trying to resurrect itself by weaponizing disinformation to absolve itself from its criminal history and extend its rule in northern Ethiopia. Remember, Dr. Abiy, like Abraham Lincoln in 1861, was forced to go to war due to a gruesome attack in the dead of night against Ethiopian forces in 100 locations by a 250,000 strong TPLF army.

Ethiopia is one of the longest surviving African nations, a key partner against terrorism, one of the most significant contributors to the U.N. peacekeeping mission, and the headquarters of the African Union. Western governments should refrain from accepting every TPLF’s disinformation campaign to punish and destabilize a long-standing ally, Ethiopia. Dr. Abiy Ahmed has shown his progressive and transformational vision by freeing political prisoners, opening markets, and promoting peace in the region.  U.S. intervention in many countries, including Iraq, was based on disinformation provided by the like of Curveball or al-Janabi (Read WMD Story).  The Democrats, through TPLF allies, are making a similar mistake in Ethiopia.  Ethiopia lasted for over 3000 years; a betrayal by the Democrats is not going to change that equation or stop Ethiopia from protecting its sovereignty from outside and inside forces. However, the U.S. position will suffer lasting damage in sub-Sahara Africa, and Democrats will pay a heavy price come to the next election in swing states like Georgia, where Ethiopians and Africans can be a factor.

Various indicators suggest that TPLf was in cahoots with anti-Ethiopian forces to restore its hegemony for another 27+ years. Thanks to Eritrea and Ethiopian armed forces, it did not happen. The devastating and horrendous attack on Ethiopian armed forces on November 3, 2020 was planned and executed in consultation with Egypt and Sudan. There is no specific public document yet, but the surprise visit by Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to Ethiopia on December 13 was to salvage a failing enterprise without realizing that Ethiopia had already destroyed most of TPLF forces.

The agreement TPLF engineered was meant to satisfy Sudan’s claim on land and to address Egyptian concern on the Abay Dam in return for their support of TPLF to reclaim power. Helping TPLF win the war was designed to accommodate both Egyptian and Sudanese demands.

Eritrean involvement in helping Ethiopia became clearer because Eritrea did not want TPLF in Addis again. According to Egyptian and Sudanese calculations, if TPLF can destroy 60-80% of Ethiopian armed forces and equipment that was located in Tigray, Ethiopia’s ability to fight back would be impossible or insignificant. In case, if Ethiopia tries to fight back and the war becomes extended, Egypt and Sudan will come to the aid of TPLF.

Tedros visit to Egypt is a good indication of coordination

Egyptian public and media statements and visit by Tedros Adhanom to Cairo all indicate coordination. Tedros’s visit was to urge Egypt to intervene when TPLF’s so called blitzkrieg (lightning war), as described by Sekuture Getachew did not work and TPLF started to retreat (TPLF Admits Starting the Conflict). Instead of directly intervening, Egypt may have given a nod for Sudan to make a move on Ethiopia’s territory. Egypt is very careful in rushing into a war since June 1967, after Israel stunned Egypt by destroying the entire Egyptian air force on the ground in in a single day. However, if the war has dragged, it was possible for both Egypt and Sudan to enter in some capacity. For the sake of Ethiopia, the swift end of the war has frustrated this plan.

Eritrea saved itself and Ethiopia by helping Ethiopia in some capacity, such as allowing retreating Ethiopian troops to enter and regroup. Whether Eritrea intervened materially or not, Eritrea’s support was pivotal.  We may never know the truth, but without Eritrea’s support Ethiopia’s situation would have been quite different and dreary.

Failure of Intelligence by both Eritrea and Ethiopia 

Failure of Ethiopia and Eritrea to anticipate and abort TPLF’s plot is disturbing and one hopes they learned their lesson now and work to end Sudanese and Egyptian machination. Sudanese move to claim land from Gonder or the Amhara region, while leaving out area controlled by TPLF, shows a clear indication of a coordinated plot. Dr. Abiy took a chance given improved relations under his administration with Sudan and out of urgency to move troops to counter TPLF attacks, leaving the Sudanese border unprotected.

Ethiopians are accustomed to disappointment and frustration. However, the Sudanese invasion and TPLF attacks and betrayal were quite shocking and unexpected.

Diplomacy is critical for both Eritrea and Ethiopia

Hopefully, Ethiopia and Eritrea mend their past differences, build their intelligence network, and work towards building their economy while avoiding an unnecessary war with Sudan. Though the combined forces of Sudan and Egypt pose an existential threat, Ethiopia or Eritrea should not rush into war despite provocations from Sudan and Egypt. Frankly, none of them can afford to go to war at this time. The most potent instrument is enhancing more than ever their diplomatic campaign to expose Sudanese invasion as a violation of international law and garner IGAD, African Union and UN support with utmost urgency.