A senseless war and conflict is raging in the Amhara region and the rest of Ethiopia. This conflict in the Amhara region, emerging from the ashes of the struggle with the TPLF, has morphed into a poignant emblem of Ethiopia’s fractured state. This paper echoes an urgent call for unity and reform beyond ethnic federalism. Click to read a captivating history of Ethiopia and more

The Fanos, an armed faction within the Amhara region, initially took up arms at the federal government’s behest to combat the TPLF, with no intention of overthrowing the regime but rather to maintain their right to bear these arms for self-defense. Despite assurances from the government that they could retain their weapons post-conflict, a policy reversal aimed at disarming the Fanos ignited the current conflict. The government’s attempt to disarm them met with refusal, which led to the declaration of war against the Fanos.

The Fanos Plight: A Struggle for Survival

The Fanos, embroiled in the current conflict, originally sought not power but the means to protect their communities and uphold border security. Their battle, borne from desperation and sacrifice, reflects a deeper crisis within Ethiopia’s governance—a reliance on ethnic federalism that has exacerbated divisions and sown discord across regions.

Ethnic Federalism: A Divisive Legacy

Ethiopia’s experiment with ethnic federalism, while well-intentioned, has led to catastrophic outcomes, fragmenting the nation along ethnic lines and inciting conflict. The aftermath of these policies is starkly visible in the ongoing turmoil in the Amhara and Oromo regions, underscoring the urgent need for a governance model that fosters unity rather than division.

A Call to Action: Learning from Rwanda’s Unity

The international community, including African leaders who have successfully navigated their countries through ethnic strife, has voiced support for Ethiopia to abandon its divisive governance model. UAE and Rwanda leaders are good examples of unifying their countries despite ethnic and other differences and undertaking credible political and economic strides. President Kagame’s leadership in Africa is a powerful testament to the benefits of prioritizing national unity and cohesive governance over ethnic division.

Towards a New Dawn: Envisioning a Unified Ethiopia

The solution to Ethiopia’s current impasse is twofold: an immediate ceasefire in the Amhara region and democratic provincial elections in the Amhara region by allowing the people to elect their representatives. More fundamentally, Ethiopia must undertake a profound structural reform by abolishing ethnic divisions and reinstating provincial boundaries led by governors, not presidents, as there should be only one president of Ethiopia. Ethiopia is the only country where regional states are called governments and administrators are called presidents. This is a recipe for disintegration similar to the one that took place in Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. This reform is crucial for Ethiopia to avoid the pitfalls of fragmentation and conflict that have befallen other nations.

Visionary Leadership for a Prosperous Ethiopia

As Ethiopia stands at a crossroads, the legacy of its leadership hangs in the balance. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is called upon to transcend reactionary measures and embody the visionary leadership that the moment demands. By embracing reforms that unify rather than divide, Ethiopia can forge a path toward lasting peace, prosperity, and a cohesive national identity.

A Clarion Call for Unity: Rethinking Ethiopia’s Future

Ethiopia’s journey towards peace and unity is fraught with challenges, yet it is a path that must be taken. The nation’s survival and prosperity hinge on its ability to transcend ethnic divisions and embrace a governance model that celebrates diversity as a strength, not a weakness. In this pivotal moment, Ethiopia’s leadership must seize the opportunity to steer the country away from the brink of fragmentation towards a future marked by harmony and collective aspiration. Only through bold action and a commitment to unity can Ethiopia hope to avert the tragedies of its past and realize the full potential of its diverse and vibrant populace. To emerge from this chaos, Ethiopia must embrace a comprehensive reform that transcends ethnic federalism, fostering a governance system that unites rather than divides, and prioritizing the collective well-being of all its citizens.

Ethiopia is the origin of humanity, center of great civilization, and one of the longest and independent surviving nations and it will continue despite machination by Egypt, other foreign and domestic enemies.

While the heinous murder of Hachalu Hundessa, Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen and others are tragic and sad, the perpetrator(s) of this criminal act should be brought to justice; however, the conflagration is due to Killil (segregation of people by ethnicity). TPLF, divide and rule system, Ethiopians are transformed into ethnic monsters instead of human beings.

Oromos without a doubt have historical grievances; Oromos like many other ethnic groups were discriminated and oppressed. Now the Oromos are in control of every echelon of government. So, what’s the problem? The problem is some Oromo leaders like Jawar want to be in charge, and they are using the Oromo youth to mastermind a violent change instead of using the ballot, where they are incapable of articulating any sensible solution to alleviate the economic and political problem facing the youth and people in general, except trying to make Ethiopia a slaughterhouse for Oromos and others. Often, they tantalize them to help them become another S. Sudan or Eritrea. Good luck in case it happens. Whatever the driving force, killing innocent people is a high crime in any religion and jurisprudence. The genesis of such behavior among Ethiopians was planted by TPLF in order to marginalize Oromos and others. Unfortunately, some Oromo, Amhara and other leaders conveniently want to forget this fact in order to grab power.

I also stated in the past that “Ethiopia cannot survive as a viable and peaceful nation under a Killil system. It will face more violence and disruption if the system is continued.”

One of the reasons for the current mayhem in Tigre, especially in major cities and towns is primarily due to Killil that made it possible for ethnic militia, and policing.

TPLF was able to build a strong army legally because of the ethnic federalism. Furthermore, the duty of a police officer is public safety irrespective of once religion or ethnicity. The police in in every ethnic enclaves think lives of other Ethiopians don’t matter. Ethiopians are being killed and burned alive for no apparent reason rather than being a different ethnic group. This is simply ethnic cleansing and the police, the police chief, and the mayor should be charged as such, as enablers and collaborators.

Despite being a product of Woyane indoctrination, the people should listen to the voices around the world that say, “Black Lives Matter”, and “All Lives Matter.”  Unfortunately, ethno-nationalist is preaching that other Ethiopian lives don’t matter. Vigilantes roaming around town are able to destroy property, kill and burn innocent people because they are given a free pass, often welcomed or aided and abetted by the local police force.

While we are deeply saddened by the untimely death of Hachalu, Dr. Mekonnen, General Tsige and others, the killers could be from any ethnic group or foreign enemy like Egypt that has been plotting to undertake similar action to thwart the building of the GERD. Unfortunately, any incident can spark an ethnic warfare. Any country or any group can spark such a conflict and destroy Ethiopia.  There is no reason to kill more innocent Oromos, Amhara or others. Thus, there has to be law and order in Ethiopia. If not, enemies of Ethiopia or ethnic agitators can start an ethnic war by simply killing any famous person. Ethiopians should not fall for such bait and get innocent people killed or burned alive by these angry mobs.

Dr. Abiy was warned about this ethnic inferno built by Woyanes and fanned by the likes of ethnonationalists from various sources that can implode anytime.

The ethnic system has to be dismantled and abandoned immediately. A merit system has to take its place. Nobody should be given a preferential treatment because of his or her ethnicity. It has been a major sore point during Meles, even during Haile Selassie.

Tigres, Amharas, Oromos or any group should be able to compete without any preferential treatment. Any preferential treatment for being born an Oromo, Tigre or Amhara should be eliminated. Such a system is anachronistic, unfair, and dangerous.

In the meantime, start training a police force that is professional and diverse, and representing all Ethiopians. Professionally trained Oromos, Amharas, Somalis, and other police officers should be able to work anywhere in Ethiopia. If they are lacking language, they should learn the local language and Amharic.

Dr. Abiy should bite the bullet and bring an end to chaos and Killil that displaced millions and resulted in the loss of so many innocent lives. Otherwise, it will continue to spread further like wildfire with devastating results.

Dr. Abiy inherited this evil and dangerous system; however, failing to take drastic action is an abdication of leadership and courage. Again, time is the essence for him to act decisively if he wants to save Ethiopia and his government.

Furthermore, it might be advisable to create a more economically integrated regional boundaries without any consideration to ethnicity or revert back to the old provincial system. The U.S. and other countries have states or provinces, and they seem to be working fine. Ethiopia should not be an exception to the rule for the wrong reason. In the long run, moving the capital city to a neutral location should be considered to provide better security, better planning, and the potential to reduce congestion.

Tribal based media and parties should be discouraged or banned, or there should be strict guidelines not to incite or promote tribalism, hate, and violence. Instead, they should focus on hard and factual news, besides promoting peace and economic advancement of all Ethiopians. The safest course would be to discourage even make it illegal to form a political party or media based on ethnicity because of their potential to incite further division and bloodshed like they did in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burma and other places.

I like the theme of “no more apartheid in Ethiopia” it means no more Killel or ethnic enclaves where minorities are suppressed and their human, civil and voting rights are denied. Without destroying Killel, you can’t save and create a peaceful and prosperous Ethiopia.

To kill ethnic divide, a good start could be a move back to provincial designation or to form economically integrated regions where go​verners are elected by the people based on issues where ethnic mongering or playing ethnic politics is prohibited or secondary to other important issues of commonality, Ethiopianism and peace. Furthermore, cities like Adam​a, Dire Dawa, Harrar and others, a mayor elected by the people run it or administer the city on behalf of the residents rather than tribal chief siting anywhere in the world.

Last but not least, federalize the militia immediately after the war. If Abiy can’t do these, he can’t be taken as a serious leader for Ethiopia. ​The indomitable, Hermela Aregawi is promoting Pan-Africanism with the #nomore movement and other venues, it will be unimaginable for Ethiopia to stay in a tribal and apartheid system and still promote Pan-Africanism. It will be a great contradiction and Abiy will be a laughingstock once people find out that he is running a tribal system or Killil , akin to Apartheid if not worse, while espousing pan-Africanism.

As a leader, Dr. Abiy is accountable to the current and future bloodshed despite the fact that he inherited the system from TPLF but failing to take drastic action will eventually erode his leadership and eventually his regime. In a previous blog entitled “Kill Killil” I said “time is the essence to act decisively and immediately to end the impending cloud of anarchy. Act today, as tomorrow may be too late to save lives and the whole country from imploding.” I hope he listens this time, as any time wasted can be catastrophic.

Ethiopia has an extremely long and extensive recorded history going back some thousands of years, however, economically remains one of the poorest. What is disturbing is even in 2018, there are millions of Ethiopians suffering from famine.

Ethiopia in its current form has existed since 1991 when Meles Zenawi through his TPLF (Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front) guerrillas overran the country and ruled until his death in 2012. He is most remembered for facilitating the separation of Eritrea, the introduction of toxic ethnic-based federalism that gave an advantage to his own tribe, and blocking access to the Internet.

On April 2nd, 2018 Dr. Abiy Ahmed Ali became prime minister, after the resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn. His election is widely seen as positive and an opportunity to unite Ethiopia and address the wrongs of the past and improve the economic conditions for the extremely poor population of about 100 million.

The election of Abiy Ahmed may have saved Ethiopia from further bloodshed and disintegration; however, his chance of transforming the economic backwardness of Ethiopia, a legacy of poor governance from yesteryears, remains immensely difficult.

In 1996, in memory of the late Congressman Mikey Leland, who died on a hunger mission in Ethiopia, the U.S. Congress allocated $12 million dollars to put a broadband Internet in all universities and high schools in Ethiopia in order jump start Ethiopia’s famine-stricken society to a technology-driven economy. In the dawn of the Internet in the 1990’s, Ethiopia had the chance to leapfrog many nations and become a leading technology juggernaut in the likes of S. Korea, China, Singapore, and others.

However, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi blocked the grant because it stipulated open access and competitive bidding for the installation of the network. He was primarily afraid of social media to mobilize the masses against his authoritarian rule. This shortsighted greed resulted in the loss of the possibility of incredible advancement and incalculable damage was done to the economy. Because of TPLF’s restrictive and monopolistic policy, Ethiopia has one of the lowest Internet penetration in the world even less than the failed state of Somalia.

In Ethiopia, many children are stunted physically and intellectually because of malnutrition. While TPLF was able to improve infrastructure, its toxic ethnic policy restricted the free flow of trade and exacerbated the economic divide and created mass misery.

To grow the economy, the current government is promoting manufacturing by inviting companies from China, Turkey, India, and others by enticing them with low wages and tax breaks. Dr. Abiy should prioritize direct foreign investment in high technology transfer jobs rather than low-wage manufacturing to provide a platform for a sustainable economic development.

The normal trajectory of moving from agriculture to manufacturing is no more an option for Ethiopia. Because of TPLF’s fear of social media and denial of access to technology, Ethiopia failed to enjoy the full benefit of the digital revolution. Given this failure, Ethiopia has no time to go through these stages and catch up with the rest of the world technologically and economically. Jumping to the Fourth Industrial Revolution will accelerate its economic and technological development, save it from future famine, ecological damage emanating from manufacturing, and massive economic disruption that arises in the phase-out of manufacturing.

Manufacturing undertaken by Chinese and other companies will not save Ethiopia from its permanent third-rated status or fill empty stomachs. Huajian is one of the most celebrated Chinese Company with over 5000 employees. According to AP “Amazing China” (May 2, 2018), Ebissa Gari, a 22-year-old employee of Huajian, earns 966 Birr ($35) a month. The average worker at Huajian factory earns $50 a month despite the fact that according to Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, a basic living wage is about 3000 Birr or ($109) a month in Ethiopia. On the other hand, Artificial Intelligence (AI) specialists with little or no industry experience can make between $300,000 and $500,000 a year in salary and stock. “Top names can receive compensation packages that extend into the millions” according to NYT (April 19, 2018).

In order to catch up with the rest of the world, Ethiopia needs to take a leap to the fourth Industrial Revolution that focuses on robotics, AI, nanotechnology, the blockchain, biotechnology, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, and 3D-printing, while not totally discounting manufacturing. The government should prioritize the introduction of the Fourth Industrial Revolution by opening up Internet access, broadband, and Research and Development in these areas.

The increased productivity, efficiency, lower operating costs and high wages are a product of access to technology. The Heritage Foundation, recently reported that economic growth had not been enjoyed evenly by all Ethiopians and it argued that more economic freedom is needed to grow the economy and to reduce civil strife.

Ethiopia is a very poor country by any standard and sits at the bottom of the ladder in all barometers. Many articles have been written with glowing statistics about Ethiopia’s fast-growing economy around 10%. In 1994, Ethiopia’s GDP was only $6.93 Billion; however, as of 2015, Ethiopia GDP stood at $72.4 Billion, a ten-fold increase according to TPLF data. This means GDP should have doubled every two years in the last two decades, which is unprecedented and improbable. Still, GDP of $72.4 Billion for a country of 100 million is not very impressive compared to Apple Inc.’s $72.6 billion income earned before taxes in 2015.

Given the state of the economy and technology, Ethiopia is at the pre-industrial stage where Britain was in the 1840’s. Unless Ethiopia skips some steps, it will need hundreds (100) of years to catch up. Of course, this assumes the rest of the world will stand still and wait for Ethiopia. For example, at a reasonable growth rate of 5%, Ethiopia will need 177 years to catch up with the U.S. growing at an average of 2.5% holding everything constant. At a 10% rate, it will take 60.5 years. The calculation is derived using a per capita of $50,000 for the U.S and $700 for Ethiopia.

Technology has the potential to be a tremendous tool in advancing the well-being of mankind, by improving quality of life and lifting standard of living. Access to technology allows us to work from anywhere and improves productivity. The progress of industrial revolution from the steam engine, electric power, and digital and information technology is the foundation for the fourth industrial revolution.

Artificial intelligence will be pervasive based on autonomous products from cars to robots. In the next two decades over 80% of the jobs will be AI and IT driven. AI will increasingly take over mundane tasks to the most sophisticated including fabrication, surgery and ground and space warfare.

According to Global Information Technology 2016, Ethiopia is 120th out of 139 countries in the Network Readiness Index (NRI) which measures access to latest technologies to individuals, businesses, and government, ease of starting a business, the efficiency of the legal system, infrastructure, capacity for innovation and more. Ethiopia’s ranking could have been much better had it not been for TPLF’s fear of technology and lack of interest in advancing Ethiopia’s technological and digital capability.

Sophia the robot and Dr. Abiy’s meetup is a promising sign. Dr. Abiy’s willingness to visit Sophia is an indication of his appreciation of the importance of technology, especially AI that encompasses autonomous or self-driving cars, nanotechnology, digital fabrication, the blockchain, biotechnology and more. In addition, IT will become more accessible to a larger part of the population and cheaper like the rest of the world if Dr. Abiy’s privatization plan proceeds with speed. Sophie visiting Addis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gp4SnCVFYl0

The technology revolution is taking place at a breakneck speed lead by Artificial intelligence, Internet of things, the cloud, and 3D-printing. Ethiopians need to demand unfettered access to technology and the Internet as a right for their survival and to avoid future famines.

Dr. Abiy needs to leapfrog Ethiopia to the fourth Industrial Revolution, stop Internet censorship, and unleash innovation to create a better future for Ethiopia. If he does not leverage the technology revolution, grow the economy with open competition, transparency, with respect to property rights, unfettered access to technology and the Internet, he will leave Ethiopia with a distressed economy and with more hungry and angry people.

Leveraging technology underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution will create a strong and sustainable economic foundation. The people who generate the wealth (the next Apple, Google, etc.), the carpenters, the risk takers and inventors should be marveled and appreciated much more than others. After all, it will be the efforts of all hard working and creative Ethiopians with a strong work ethics that will propel Ethiopia to be an economic and technological juggernaut.

There should be a silver lining to the AGOA situation. Ethiopia can move from manufacturing to a high-tech country for more sustainable development. When France refused to sell planes and parts to Israel during the Six-Day War, Israel immediately opted to build its airplanes and technology not to be hostage again. Consequently, with a population of 9 million, Israel is a powerhouse of technology and one of the strongest economies in the Middle East.

Industrial Parks are not sustainable solutions
Industrial parks, as they are set up now, are transients. They are temporary solutions to unemployment. Ethiopia uses cheap labor to attract companies to establish cloth and textile-driven manufacturing plants. Manufacturing plants based on labor alone are transient and do not provide good or living wages or sustainable solutions; like rivers; they flow in one direction with cheap labor. Most of the manufacturing plants moved from China, Bangladesh, and other regions to take advantage of cheap labor in Ethiopia. I am sure they will move whenever such an opportunity arises anywhere else. The life expectancy of industrial parks can be cut short and leave people without Jobs and the area with environmental damages. Of course, the suggestion is not to dismantle such plants immediately but to transition to a long and lasting solution to Ethiopia’s economic woes.

 Ethiopia can be like Israel, China, and other Asian tigers in 10-15 years by planting the seeds for sustainable development bolstered by technology. Turning Industrial Parks into technology parks or hubs by fostering and promoting innovation for technology, where a high density of startup companies, engineers, and other innovators cluster together to produce goods and services driven by markets can be the solution. Besides technology parks, universities and cities can provide co-working spaces for technology hubs and incubators with funds supplied by diaspora, private companies, and the government for equity interest or loans. Alternatively, the Ethiopian government can issue bonds to sell to the diaspora or the diaspora can set up their own venture capital to fund these projects.

Moving to the Fourth Industrial Revolution is the Solution

 To catch up with the rest of the world, Ethiopia needs to leap to the fourth Industrial Revolution that focuses on robotics, AI, nanotechnology, blockchain, biotechnology, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, and others without totally discounting manufacturing. The government should prioritize the introduction of the Fourth Industrial Revolution by opening up Internet access, broadband, and Research and Development in these areas.

To grow the economy, the current government is promoting manufacturing by inviting companies from China, Turkey, India, and others by enticing them with low wages and tax breaks. Dr. Abiy should prioritize direct foreign investment in high technology transfer jobs rather than low-wage manufacturing to provide a platform for sustainable economic development.

The typical trajectory of moving from agriculture to manufacturing is no more an option for Ethiopia. Because of TPLF’s fear of social media and denial of access to technology, Ethiopia failed to enjoy the full benefit of the digital revolution. Given this failure, Ethiopia has no time to go through these stages and catch up with the rest of the world technologically and economically. Jumping to the Fourth Industrial Revolution will accelerate its economic and technological development, save it from future famine, ecological damage emanating from manufacturing, and massive economic disruption that arises in manufacturing phase-out.

Manufacturing undertaken by Chinese and other companies will not save Ethiopia from its permanent third-rated status or fill empty stomachs. Huajian is one of the most celebrated Chinese Companies with over 5000 employees. According to AP “Amazing China” (May 2, 2018), Ebissa Gari, a 22-year-old employee of Huajian, earns 966 Birr ($35) a month. The average worker at Huajian factory earns $50 a month. According to Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, a basic living wage was about 3000 Birr or ($109) a month in Ethiopia. On the other hand, Artificial Intelligence (AI) specialists with little or no industry experience can make between $300,000 and $500,000 a year in salary and stock. “Top names can receive compensation packages that extend into the millions” (NYT, April 19, 2018).

The increased productivity, efficiency, lower operating costs, and high wages are a product of access to technology. The Heritage Foundation recently reported that not all Ethiopians had enjoyed economic growth evenly. It argued that more economic freedom is needed to grow the economy and reduce civil strife.

Ethiopia will need 177 years to catch up with the U.S

Given the economy and the state of technology, Ethiopia is pre-industrial, where Britain was in the 1840s. Unless Ethiopia skips some steps, it will need hundreds (100) of years to catch up. Of course, this assumes the rest of the world will stand still and wait for Ethiopia. For example, at a reasonable growth rate of 5%, Ethiopia will need 177 years to catch up with the U.S. growing at an average of 2.5% holding everything constant. At a 10% rate, it will take 60.5 years. The calculation is derived using a per capita of $50,000 for the U.S and $700 for Ethiopia.

Technology has the potential to be a tremendous tool in advancing the well-being of humankind by improving the quality of life and lifting the standard of living. Leveraging technology allows us to work from anywhere and enhances productivity. The progress of the industrial revolution from the steam engine, electric power, and digital and information technology is the foundation for the fourth industrial revolution.

 Over 80% of the jobs will be AI and IT-driven in the next two decades.

Artificial intelligence will be pervasive based on autonomous products, from cars to robots. Over 80% of the jobs will be AI and IT-driven in the next two decades. AI will increasingly take over mundane tasks to the most sophisticated, including fabrication, surgery, and ground and space warfare.

 Ethiopia is 120th out of 139 countries in the Network Readiness Index (NRI)

According to Global Information Technology 2016, Ethiopia is 120th out of 139 countries in the Network Readiness Index (NRI), which measures access to the latest technologies to individuals, businesses, and government, ease of starting a business, the efficiency of the legal system, infrastructure, capacity for innovation and more. Ethiopia’s ranking could have been much better had it not been for TPLF’s fear of technology and lack of interest in advancing Ethiopia’s technological and digital capability.

Leveraging technology underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution will create a solid and sustainable economic foundation. The people who generate the wealth (the next Apple, Google, etc.), the carpenters, the risk-takers, and inventors should be appreciated much more than talking heads or politicians. After all, the hard-working and creative Ethiopians with strong work ethics will be the catalyst to propel Ethiopia to be an economic and technical juggernaut.

The technology revolution is taking place at a breakneck speed led by Artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, the cloud, and 3D printing. Ethiopians need to demand unfettered access to technology and the internet as a right for their survival and to avoid future famines.

Dr. Abiy needs to leapfrog Ethiopia to the fourth Industrial Revolution and unleash innovation to create a better future for Ethiopia. If he does not leverage the technology revolution, grow the economy with open competition, transparency, property rights, and unfettered access to technology and the internet, he will leave Ethiopia with a distressed economy and more hungry and angry people.

Dula Abdu, a retired banker, economist and is the founder of a non-profit that promotes access to technology to underserved communities. Currently supports underserved schools in the US and in Ethiopia by providing a STEM-based educational database that works without the internet. The article was adapted from a previous article entitled “Ethiopia needs to leapfrog to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

When my wife decided to go to Ethiopia with our three kids to see their grandparents despite my reservation, I decided to go on a vacation somewhere else too. I flew to Cuba with my oldest daughter. While I was in Cuba I felt at peace with no fear or concern for our safety, on the other hand, I was worried about the safety of my family in Ethiopia and the safety of the Ethiopian people as a whole.

I had a mixed feeling about Cuba which could be described as a fascination for its revolutionary spirit but disdain for its failure to adopt like the Chinese or Vietnamese to usher a vibrant mixed economy.

Unlike many places that I visited I found the Cuban people especially in Havana color-blind and respectful of foreigners and each other regardless of color or sex. You see women walking by themselves the dead of night without fear despite the absence of police like other major cities.  Street after street I saw Cuban kids; black, mulattos and white playing like any kids with no inkling about their color or gender.

Whether you go to the beaches, parks, clubs or other places the idea that someone is paying attention to you about your pigmentation or gender seems to disappear because you just become a human being. Of course, as a tourist you have to be careful not to be taken advantage of by taxis or anyone else.  Nonetheless, you have no fear of being robbed or attacked.

One of my biggest disappointments when visiting Ethiopia last August was traffic pollution and potholes. In Cuba the roads are wide, clean and I did not see one pothole during my range of travel, which included both cities and the country side like valley of  Viñales. One of the reasons for the smooth traffic could be linked to government control of imports and exorbitant tariffs. This is despite the fact that one of  the dreams of many Cubans is to own a car.

Cuba like Ethiopia is a resource poor country, despite that you don’t see homeless Cuban, beggars, and I am told by many Cubans that no one in Cuba goes to bed hungry.

Despite many interesting aspects about Cuba, its telecom system is terrible and the economy is stagnant instead of growing given Cuba’s highly educated workforce. You see elaborate and eye-catching mansions, buildings and homes unkempt but still being occupied. Just a nice paint or selling some of them to private owners will bring them alive. Since they are government owned it takes a long, long time to address such neglect.

Cuba’s free healthcare and free education system have created an equal and intelligent society. What Cuba needs to do is unleash its massive human capital without destroying its almost color-blind society and highly egalitarian system.

For countries in Africa, they should look to Cuba to embody the mantra of live and let live and coexistence while creating a level playing field for their citizens under a benign free market system.

Despite the history of master and slave legacy, the white, blacks and the mulatto communities in Cuba have integrated to form a cohesive society. They regard the Cuban nationality as their citizenry and don’t identify as ethnic groups.

In Ethiopia, the road that Dr. Abiy chose is the correct way. Partial privatization and lessening ethnic animosity or differences, that was magnified and exploited by TPLF will bring peace economic growth, and prosperity at last. Leveling the playing field for all Ethiopians regardless of their religion or ethnicity and respecting individual rights is the only path to peace.  It also shows that with the right leadership it is possible to overcome ethnic, economic and other challenges and create a peaceful and sustainable economy for all citizens.

Despite Cuba’s some shortcomings, it is wonderful that there is a place that you don’t have to look over your shoulder because of your ethnicity or gender. I hope Ethiopia will move towards an ethnic-blind society while firing its economic engines to address years of economic malaise and neglect to transform itself as leading technological and economic power in Africa. Ethiopians should strive to lift the stigma of being known a country of famine, displacement and ethnic conflicts. Without a doubt, Ethiopia’s failure to build a democratic institution will be catastrophic to all ethnic groups, both small and large. The world is eager to see the cradle of mankind ascend to the mecca of democracy. To get there, Ethiopians should listen to peace makers instead of prophets of hate and ethnic agitators if they want survive and thrive.

Source:Wikipedia

Various indicators suggest that TPLf was in cahoots with anti-Ethiopian forces to restore its hegemony for another 27+ years. Thanks to Eritrea and Ethiopian armed forces, it did not happen. The devastating and horrendous attack on Ethiopian armed forces on November 3, 2020 was planned and executed in consultation with Egypt and Sudan. There is no specific public document yet, but the surprise visit by Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to Ethiopia on December 13 was to salvage a failing enterprise without realizing that Ethiopia had already destroyed most of TPLF forces.

The agreement TPLF engineered was meant to satisfy Sudan’s claim on land and to address Egyptian concern on the Abay Dam in return for their support of TPLF to reclaim power. Helping TPLF win the war was designed to accommodate both Egyptian and Sudanese demands.

Eritrean involvement in helping Ethiopia became clearer because Eritrea did not want TPLF in Addis again. According to Egyptian and Sudanese calculations, if TPLF can destroy 60-80% of Ethiopian armed forces and equipment that was located in Tigray, Ethiopia’s ability to fight back would be impossible or insignificant. In case, if Ethiopia tries to fight back and the war becomes extended, Egypt and Sudan will come to the aid of TPLF.

Tedros visit to Egypt is a good indication of coordination

Egyptian public and media statements and visit by Tedros Adhanom to Cairo all indicate coordination. Tedros’s visit was to urge Egypt to intervene when TPLF’s so called blitzkrieg (lightning war), as described by Sekuture Getachew did not work and TPLF started to retreat (TPLF Admits Starting the Conflict). Instead of directly intervening, Egypt may have given a nod for Sudan to make a move on Ethiopia’s territory. Egypt is very careful in rushing into a war since June 1967, after Israel stunned Egypt by destroying the entire Egyptian air force on the ground in in a single day. However, if the war has dragged, it was possible for both Egypt and Sudan to enter in some capacity. For the sake of Ethiopia, the swift end of the war has frustrated this plan.

Eritrea saved itself and Ethiopia by helping Ethiopia in some capacity, such as allowing retreating Ethiopian troops to enter and regroup. Whether Eritrea intervened materially or not, Eritrea’s support was pivotal.  We may never know the truth, but without Eritrea’s support Ethiopia’s situation would have been quite different and dreary.

Failure of Intelligence by both Eritrea and Ethiopia 

Failure of Ethiopia and Eritrea to anticipate and abort TPLF’s plot is disturbing and one hopes they learned their lesson now and work to end Sudanese and Egyptian machination. Sudanese move to claim land from Gonder or the Amhara region, while leaving out area controlled by TPLF, shows a clear indication of a coordinated plot. Dr. Abiy took a chance given improved relations under his administration with Sudan and out of urgency to move troops to counter TPLF attacks, leaving the Sudanese border unprotected.

Ethiopians are accustomed to disappointment and frustration. However, the Sudanese invasion and TPLF attacks and betrayal were quite shocking and unexpected.

Diplomacy is critical for both Eritrea and Ethiopia

Hopefully, Ethiopia and Eritrea mend their past differences, build their intelligence network, and work towards building their economy while avoiding an unnecessary war with Sudan. Though the combined forces of Sudan and Egypt pose an existential threat, Ethiopia or Eritrea should not rush into war despite provocations from Sudan and Egypt. Frankly, none of them can afford to go to war at this time. The most potent instrument is enhancing more than ever their diplomatic campaign to expose Sudanese invasion as a violation of international law and garner IGAD, African Union and UN support with utmost urgency.

            While people across Texas and other parts of the U.S. recently suffered from a lack of electricity and water as a result of a winter storm, millions of people in other countries live with blackouts year-round. One of those countries is Ethiopia, where 60% of the population of 115 million has no electricity, and the rest regularly endure blackouts that last hours or even days. And while many developing countries have no way out of their predicament, Ethiopia is one of a few with a plan to change its situation. Ethiopia’s objective depends, however, on the completion of a controversial dam on the “Blue Nile” or Abay River, which contributes the biggest share of the water needs of Egypt and Sudan. Those countries are opposed to Ethiopia’s completion of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as any activity affecting the flow of the river may have an adverse impact on their share of the water, and U.S. involvement in the matter has not helped.

            The role of former president Donald Trump in resolving the dispute between Ethiopia and the two upstream countries was a disaster. Trump decided to become a mediator among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, as a favor to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and to help himself win the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump referred to General Al-Sisi as his “favorite dictator” after Al-Sisi supposedly made a $10 million donation to Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. General Al-Sisi enjoyed President Trump’s support despite engaging in egregious human rights violations in his own country, declaring himself “president for life” and overthrowing a democratically elected government. According to Tom Campbell, professor of economics at Chapman University, Ethiopia accepted U.S. mediation thinking that the U.S. was a neutral party and a friend to the country.

            When Ethiopia refused to accept a deal crafted by Egypt, however, Trump suggested Egypt bomb the dam if Ethiopia proceeds without the proposed agreement, leading some to speculate that Trump’s stance would embolden Egypt to go to war with Ethiopia. Moreover, Trump froze all economic aid to Ethiopia as long as Ethiopia does not sign the agreement, effectively giving Egypt “veto power” regarding the dam. Last year, Egypt received $1.42 billion from the U.S. – a substantial increase from previous years. Egypt has garnered over $81 billion in foreign aid from U.S. taxpayers’ money since 1946. Some of the funds are used to purchase Russian arms, oppress civil society, install puppet regimes in the Horn of Africa, and destabilize non-cooperating states in that part of Africa.

            Although the Ethiopian dam is designed to produce power, not irrigation, Egypt is still apprehensive of its consequences. As a result, Egypt is using domestic and foreign proxies to thwart any development efforts in Ethiopia. Egypt was given a monopoly by Britain that ruled Egypt as a protectorate from 1882 to 1956. The British colonial treaty signed in 1929 excluded Ethiopia and gave virtual control over the Nile River to Egypt, even though the Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia, with that country supplying 86% of the water. Another British treaty in 1959 between Sudan and Egypt assigned 55.5 billion cubic meters of the river flow to Egypt and 18.5 billion to Sudan, but none to Ethiopia or other downstream states. Egypt is using diplomatic, military, and economic pressure on Ethiopia to derail the completion of the dam. It indirectly supported Sudan’s invasion of Western Ethiopia and is accused of plotting with the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on November 3, 2020 to overthrow the reformist government led by Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed in the capital Addis Ababa.

            Meanwhile, most Ethiopians continue to suffer from a lack of access to water and electricity, without which the country cannot escape its current hardship, grow its economy, and end recurring famine and poverty. Despite its need for electricity, the country was unable to secure financing from the World Bank or other financial institutions on which Egypt had put pressure, so Ethiopia has to rely exclusively on internal financing to build the dam. Now, Egypt and Sudan are threatening Ethiopia with an invasion or sabotage if it proceeds with the dam without their approval or an agreement favorable to their own water supplies. This comes in total denial of Ethiopia’s entitlement to use the Blue Nile for its development to overcome the poverty and famine to which the country has been subjected for many decades.

            The U.S. role in expanding access to water and electricity is critical for humanitarian reasons and to promote stability around the world. Also, the U.S. should serve as an impartial mediator to solve world conflicts when needed. Many people lack electricity in developing countries, while others suffer outages and rolling blackouts. In countries like Ethiopia, water is scarce and dirty, and deaths including child mortality from waterborne diseases occur regularly. Because electricity is a scarce commodity, women and young girls are forced to fetch wood in the forest to make a living, rendering them vulnerable to attack. The use of firewood as fuel leads to carbon monoxide poisoning, another common cause of death.

            The excruciating life experience pervasive throughout the developing world by no means minimizes the suffering and deaths that took place in Texas and other states – tragedies that could have been avoided with proper preparation. Until countries such as the U.S. set aside greed and ideological and political differences in the interest of managing resources carefully, water, electricity, and other essentials of living will remain scarce for millions of people – not only in Ethiopia but also throughout the world. More importantly, failure to apply U.S. diplomacy in a fair and judicious manner can also create a permanent havoc on the lives of millions around the world.

Ethiopian Muslims, as taxpayers, have the right to use any public facility in Ethiopia. The recent controversy raised by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church through its patriarch Office or other government officials to deny Ethiopian Muslims to use Maskel Square for Grand Ethiopian Iftar or for any other purpose is unwarranted. Maskel Square is just a name, it does not say it belongs to Christians only or to anybody. It will serve the enemies of Ethiopia to divide Ethiopians now among religious divisions. Since a TPLF supporter leads the Orthodox Church or other reactionaries, there should be a severe analysis if this is designed to drive a wedge among Ethiopian Muslims and Christians to serve narrow nationalist or TPLF interest or the actual wishes of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church followers. This denial in Addis may be in line with the philosophy in Axum, where Muslims are not allowed to build a mosque since the beginning of time. 

 After TPLF took over the Orthodox Church, TPLF had its eye on the Muslim leadership. In the process, it tried to pit Muslims against the Orthodox Church, especially against Amharas. However,  through the leadership of Imam Haji Zumakan Jemal of the grand Anwar Mosque, Ethiopian Muslims refused to join TPLF. Consequently, many Muslims were killed and imprisoned, including Imam Zumakan, when TPLF sent armed people to remove the leadership and put its appointed leaders.

The recent controversy could be a scheme by the current Patriarch or others to drive wedges between Christians and Muslims and to serve anti-Ethiopian interests. Furthermore,  this can antagonize Ethiopian Muslims and make them feel like second-class citizens, which was often the case before 1974.

The intervention of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church (EOTC) and statement led by the Patriarch’s Office suggesting that the event be held somewhere else other than Mesqel Square was unfortunate, as this negates the equality of all religions in Ethiopia and equal access to public venues for Muslims. This could be interpreted as EOTC wants to keep its dominance and preferred status and delegate other religions to second-class status or drive a wedge between the two religions.

The Abiy regime has always stayed silent when tragedies happen in Ataye, in Wollega, and elsewhere. It cannot prevent conflicts before they happened because of poor intelligence or intervene with force when they happened. 

I recall the celebration of Irreechaa and other festivals at the Maskel Square/Adebaby. I am not sure if Maskal Square is the proper venue for religious or traditional celebrations. However, what is good for the goose is good for the gander. If it can be used by any religious group or by traditional groups, it would have been fair to allow Muslims to access it. This is a clear indication that there are forces bent backward to destroy Ethiopia by any means necessary, either inflaming ethnic tension or religious differences. 

The Abiy regime has failed so far to curtail these forces either by lack of will, lack of power, or in cahoots with them. Nobody knows, but it looks like, in matters of importance to the nation’s survival, he often goes AWL. 

Despite his flowery rhetoric and reconciliatory speeches, he is driving Ethiopia into the abyss. People have to be cognizant of this fact and make sure Muslims, Christians, and ethnic groups do not fall for this trap. Imam Haji Zumakan Jemal was my uncle, and I was proud of him when he defied Meles Zenawi to collude with him against Christians. He paid a small price; nonetheless, Ethiopia is in a mortal danger than ever before. If a leader cannot comprehend the gravity of such a mistake, such as oppressing or antagonizing almost half of the country’s population in a trivial matter like this is unfortunate. Furthermore,  failure to respond to a TPLF patriarch’s damning press release, allowing Jawar, and others plot to kill Hachalu to start an ethnic war,  allow Asamnew Tsege to plot the assassination of Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen, and allowing TPLF to slaughter Ethiopian soldiers while asleep because of poor intelligence shows lack of wisdom and the foresight and abdication of responsibility. It might be time for new leadership or for a new party or for both.

Given some doubts about the situation in Tigray in terms of possible multiple human rights violations, I am withdrawing all my pieces about the situation until further notice.

Despite my opposition to TPLF, I have great respect and admiration for the people of Tigray for their hard work and spirit of Ethiopiawinet.

So I hope any human rights violation against the people of Tigray stops immediately and without any delay.

America has the worst income inequality among the developed world because it has failed to honestly and boldly address its legacy of slavery. Since the Civil War, America managed to make cosmetic changes to absolve itself from its shameful history of enslaving millions of Africans.  COVID-19 brought to the front that legacy that many Americans hoped to forget, but never sought to address.

Now many Americans including Anthony Cararamuchi, former Trump White House Communication Director and managing partner of investment firm Skybridge, Ray Dialo, largest hedge manager in the U.S., want it acknowledged and addressed.

 Research shows this tragic legacy is harmful to the U. S. economy and has become a stain to the American reputation.

The passing of the CARES Act to soften the economic blow from the pandemic was necessary, as was the case in U.S. rescue of Europe after World War 2,  and the rescue of banks during the Great Recession, albeit a controversial one.

The current pandemic disproportionately hit minorities, especially blacks who remain in the bottom of the economic ladder. The pandemic also exposed the economic disparity that translates to inadequate access to education and healthcare.

Ray Dialo added, “Widening income inequality and under-investment in public education pose an existential risk for the U.S.” and “leaving so many children in poverty and not educating them well is the equivalent of child abuse”  

 Larry English, Special to the Times said, inequality is a disease that passes down through generations and now partnered with COVID-19   became a toxic brew killing the old and weak.  

Income inequality is also hurting America’s ability to grow its economy and utilize its citizens gainfully and productively. Recent research by McKinsey found this economic disparity has other consequences. It has a dampening effect on consumption and investment costing the US economy between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion in the next ten years. This is equivalent to 4 to 6 percent of the projected GDP in 2028. Closing the racial economic gap is a win for African-Americans and for the economy.

Anthony Cararamuchi thinks the coronavirus crisis could be an opportunity to close the economic gaps in our society. He also thinks this should be “a wake-up call” for policymakers, politicians, macro-economists, the very wealthy, and the Forbes 400 to do something about it, as the pandemic exposed the gap between the haves and have-nots.

COVID’s disproportionate killing of African-Americans is not a coincidence. It only shows their economic standing and vulnerability in this society. McKinsey & Company, a consulting firm found that African-American’s net worth is one-tenth of white people.

Many countries, and businesses under duress often get subsidies or relief from the U.S. government.  The majority of Blacks in America have been under duress and in jeopardy under the current system, facing abject poverty and injustice just to name a few.

Since the beginning of this great nation justice and economic parity for Black people has yet to come despite its great motto “justice for all and under God”

A bill for the rescue of the poor and blacks from their current predicament is a moral and economic imperative. It does not have to include handouts. How would the rescue program be handled? It will include funding Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), distressed schools, and establishing vocational and STEM centers in minority districts.

Nonprofits like Appropriate Development Technology, Inc., promote and encourage underprivileged children to gravitate towards STEM-education so that they can become future engineers and scientists in order to break the cycle of poverty that is prevalent in the African-American community.  Many nonprofits have a problem of scaling such program for lack of funding. Increasing minority presence in STEM to 12-15% from 3% where stands now can have a dramatic effect. The absence of African-American in STEM is a factor exacerbating income disparity and a barrier to bridging income inequality.

The rescue plan is not a handout, but for a lasting solution, where underprivileged adults are given a chance for vocational training, and children to immerse in STEM education to improve their economic standing. This will reduce welfare, unemployment, and the prison population.  

Some kind of intervention is overdue because it’s a moral and economic imperative. The African-American community needs a rescue plan because it’s in jeopardy and under duress.

When a member of a family is under duress, the whole family is under duress. Blacks are a member of the American family whether we like it or not, when they are under duress the whole country is under duress.

The fact that COVID is killing more blacks is no coincidence, but it means they remain vulnerable to any economic and health shocks. Poor education, poor health services, and living in high crime area are contributing factors.  It is simply their economic standing that made them vulnerable to COVID. It may be now or never for President Biden and Congress to consider a rescue or a CARES Act for African-Americans. It will be a sad moment and a great moral failure if this opportunity is missed.

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