Dula's Blog

Given some doubts about the situation in Tigray in terms of possible multiple human rights violations, I am withdrawing all my pieces about the situation until further notice.

Despite my opposition to TPLF, I have great respect and admiration for the people of Tigray for their hard work and spirit of Ethiopiawinet.

So I hope any human rights violation against the people of Tigray stops immediately and without any delay.

Ethiopia and Egypt may go to war thanks to Donald Trump. On Friday, October 23, 2020 at news conference, he encouraged and goaded Egypt to bomb the Abay Dam, the largest dam in Africa.

Former Secretary Tillerson described Donald Trump as a moron, now I believe he is not just a moron, but a reckless one too, otherwise, he would not be saying something crazy like encouraging Egypt to bomb the Abay Dam.  Instead of using the U.S. diplomatic channels to find a peaceful solution, he opted to act as a lackey for his favorite dictator probably as a payback for the illegal $10M donation in 2016.

If Egypt heeds his advice, it is likely Ethiopia will blow up the Aswan Dam, and it will be more costly to Egypt (no electricity and millions will perish). Furthermore, Ethiopia has so many unemployed engineers, it can build so many irrigation dams in all tributaries and along the Abay River, there will be no or little water flowing to Egypt.

This may also entail a war between Black Africa and the Arabs, and it will be a continental war, U.S. and Egypt versus Black Africa and the rest of the world.

Ethiopia is only asking an equitable share of the Nile, no more or less. Egypt is not losing any water now or in the future except there might be a chance during the filling period. At that time, Egypt has enough reservoir or water stored on the Aswan Dam to compensate during that period. So there is no ground for war unless Donald Trump sparks it to win an election or payback for the loan in such dangerous fashion.

Ethiopia had many wars with Egypt, some of them lead by  Confederat American generals, but Ethiopia always prevailed. It will prevail again, but Egypt will forever lose it goodwill with Ethiopia and potential any water, as Ethiopia may put many small to medium irrigation dams instead of huge electric dams. If Egypt opts to invade, it will lose and it has to pay to build the dam if they want any water again.

Ethiopia is the origin of humanity, center of great civilization, and one of the longest and independent surviving Black nations, and it will continue despite machination by Egypt, Donald Trump, and others.

At the behest of Egypt, and indirectly Saudi Arabia, the U.S enticed Ethiopia to enter into a discussion on the Great Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia is building on the Abay (Nile) River. Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary, and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law were assigned to engage in foreign policy, an expertise belonging to the State Department. It looked very suspicious and odd for the two gentlemen to engage in water conflicts and African diplomacy.

Why did Trump choose Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner instead of seasoned diplomats from the State Department to solve a diplomatic and water dispute? Both have no qualifications whatsoever in the technology of building dams, colonial history of Africa, or water conflicts.

Kushner, Trump and Mnuchin are allies of Saudi Arabia and friends of President Sisi. Was the verdict written by Egypt before the arbitration started, as it was announced without an agreement and in the absence of Ethiopia? It smells like the old justice system in Dixie where blacks were picked randomly as murder suspects and thrown into a death row cell before trial or a verdict.

Egypt outwitted Ethiopia, especially Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who has just been in power for less than two years to engage the U.S. without fully understanding the influence of Saudi Arabia and Egypt on the Trump administration. Both can get away with murder as long as Donald Trump is in the White House, like Saudi Arabia did with the murder of journalist Jamall Kashoggi and Egypt with thousands of Egyptian lives.

Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner presented an agreement without consulting Ethiopia that stated any infringement on Egypt’s water consumption from the Nile River is unacceptable. The Arab League followed suit and stated that any infringement against Egypt water quota is a declaration of war on the whole Arab world. Now Ethiopia is facing a confrontation with Egypt backed by the United States and the Arab World.

Now embolden by U.S. and the Arab world, Egypt wants to dictate every aspect of the operation of the dam, otherwise threatening to destroy it and even declare war on Ethiopia. Furthermore, instead of creating a diplomatic and an economic solution to the problem, Egypt is going for a diplomatic and military knockout by isolating Ethiopia.

British colonial treaty signed in 1929 excluded Ethiopia and gave virtual control over the river to Egypt, even though Ethiopia is supply 85% of the water. Another British treaty in 1959 between Sudan and Egypt assigned 55.5 billion cubic meters of the river flow to Egypt and 18.5 to Sudan, but none to Ethiopia or other downstream nations.

It is highly disturbing why Steven Mnuchin or Jared Kushner were engaging in water conflicts or diplomatic issues involving Africa. Most of all Steven Mnuchin or Jared Kushner are not a student of history or colonialism that Egypt is relying to preserve its share of the water coming from Ethiopia. Britain set the ground rule on the usage of the Nile River without consulting any of the upstream countries in favor of Egypt, which was a British colony. Egypt is flexing its political and military power to keep a one sided colonial treaty in force.

Unfortunately, Egypt’s arrogant stand emanates because it has the military and diplomatic advantage over Ethiopia and because of a strong relationship between President Sisi, Donald Trump and support from Saudi Arabia.

Donald Trump’s failure to be a neutral arbitrator may end up causing a big war. Egypt may be tempted to strike the dam with American weapons. Egypt is the largest recipient of America’s aid in Africa despite being a dictatorship. On the other hand, Dr. Abiy is a Nobel Laurette that introduced democracy, free press,   free market, and made peace with Eritrea.

Now his ambitious plan to transition Ethiopia into a democracy will be short lived if he were to engage in war with Egypt because of Donald Trump’s abdication to serve as a neutral arbitrator instead of a hired gun.

This unprecedented involvement of Donald Trump in diplomatic affairs in Africa may lead to a war between Africa and the Arab World.  A war unfortunately none of them can afford.

If the task of arbitration was given to someone versed in diplomacy and history of colonialism in Africa, it could have been avoided. Both Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner are real estate gurus not diplomats. Mnuchin got notoriety as “Foreclosure King” during the Great Recession for foreclosing on U.S. homeowners mostly minorities, often profiting on their misfortunes to make millions.

Ethiopia is a very a poor and proud country trying to address urgent economic and energy needs of its growing population, standing around 110 million. It has faced many invasions in the past from Europeans and two major ones from Egypt. If Egypt bombs the dam and make it inoperable, Ethiopia can retaliate. This opens the possibility for Ethiopia to destroy the Aswan dam, as well as divert water using tributaries of the Blue Nile, especially during the summer months. This may force Egypt to invade Ethiopia. As in the past, Egypt will lose the war and the result could be devastating economically to both countries; however, Egypt will lose forever any leverage or ability to dictate to Ethiopia with uncompromising demands.

It will be smart for Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to open their borders and promote economic integration instead of looking to the West and the Middle East for their survival, which has not paid off so far besides making them client and dependent states.

There is no love lost between Egypt and Ethiopia. For years, Egypt has consistently tried to keep Ethiopia in turmoil and underdeveloped by supporting secessionist groups, supplying arms to invaders such as Somalia during 1977-78 war. In 1993, Egypt orchestrated to make Ethiopia landlocked by supporting the secession of Eritrea with the help of then UN Secretary Boutros-Boutros Ghali, an Egyptian in contravention of U.N Chapter 1 and article 2 that demands respect for the territorial integrity of all of its members. Eritrea’s secession was finalized in six month, while Somaliland, Western Sahara and others have been waiting for decades because of Egypt’s and Boutros Ghali’s desire to harm Ethiopia.

On the other hand, the people of Ethiopia and Egypt have many common bonds. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church and the Egyptian Orthodox Church are both Coptic and follow similar rituals. Many Ethiopian Muslims admired Gamal Abdel Nasser as a great leader of Africa and a champion of the Muslim cause.

The State Department or the Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Tibor Nagy was not present or invited to the mediation of the three African countries.  It was a fait accompli. The cards were stacked against Ethiopia, which has only wanted to build a dam still supplying 85% of the water for Egypt.

The mediation by the U.S. was a charade primarily aimed at pleasing Egypt and Saudi Arabia.  This is unfortunately a recent pattern of U.S. diplomacy sacrificing one ally to please another with a stronger influence or deeper pockets. A similar scenario was played in conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Russia and Ukraine and numerous others. Everything is transactional, not grounded on principle or diplomatic norms.

Sadly, Egypt and other Arab governments still maintain a colonial mentality like the Europeans when it comes sub-Sahara Africa. They want to dominate and have a superiority complex. Even now, their pejorative term for all Black people is abd, slave.

Instead of assigning the task to an impartial and honest broker, Donald Trump showed his true transactional spirit and sacrificed Ethiopia to appease friends with deep pockets. This, of course, did not come as a surprise to anyone who had been paying attention to the Trump administration’s policies and alliances in the Middle East. Ethiopia is less valuable in Donald Trump’s transactional world, so it is worthy throwing to the dogs.

According to Tom Campbell, professor of economics at Chapman University, Ethiopia successfully managed to keep outside interference in the negotiation between the parties. It only accepted U.S. mediation thinking that the U.S. was a neutral party and a friend of Ethiopia. What a disappointment?

Approximately 65 percent of Ethiopians do not have reliable electricity. Without electricity, Ethiopia cannot grow its economy and end its recurring famine and abject poverty.

Unless the U.S. changes it blind support for Egypt, this will lead to a war between the Arab world and Sub-Sahara Africa; and Donald Trump will have blood on his hands.

There are certain events that require adequate and prompt explanations because the very future of the country depends on it. There was nothing more pressing, more important and burning issue than the need to adequately explain the death of Hachalu Hundessa in particular who orchestrated the killing and why.

In June, 2019, the handling or lack of prompt and adequate explanation of the murder of Amhara regional president Ambachew Mekonnen and General Asaminew Tsige has alienated many Amharas from the Abiy government. In June, 2020, the same thing is going with Oromos. By failing to fully expose the architects of Hachalu’s killers, Dr. Abiy has angered and alienating many Oromos. The enemies of Ethiopia who orchestrated these tragedies every year including the attempted assassination of Dr. Abiy are eroding his base of support, winning the PR game, and destabilizing the country. Unfortunately, the government of Ethiopia has gone AWOL in its responsibility to apprehend the culprits before the act or refute and to debunk accusations of complicity and hanging it squarely on the necks of OLF and TPLF.

In June, 2018 anti-reform forces tried to assassinate Dr. Abiy, in June, 2019 assassinated General Seare Mekonnen,Chief of General Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense, and in June, 2020, they assassinated Hachalu, all in an effort to restore the TPLF regime or fan genocide against Amharas and other minorities.

The minister of justice and the Prime Minister’s Office failed to share adequately with the local and the international media who orchestrated these attacks, and recently who financed the killing of Hachalu and why.

Despite the detention of three individuals, the international and even local media helped by the OMN and OLF-Shane supporters was awashed with the news that the Ethiopian government was the culprit. The news media including human rights organization such as Amnesty International were overwhelmingly influenced by OMN and OLF narrative that the Ethiopian government was the suspect in the death of Hachalu.

In addition, OMN and OLF were able to inform their supporters that the Ethiopian government was again the perpetrator of Hachalu’s death. This would have required a swift rebuttal by  the ministry of justice or any relevant arm of the government.

Unfortunately, there was no clear and unambiguous refutation of these charges, charges made by OLF and its followers. The media was completely blanketed by the death of Hachalu, but the loss of life and property that followed in the aftermath was barely covered. This failure by the Ethiopian government to share with the international media has turned Ethiopia and its citizens forever as killer of Hachalu for expressing his views. Of course, his views were not anti-Ethiopia, but it was shared in that manner by OMN.

Failure to properly and adequately relay the tragedies that followed the killing of Hachalu and the aftermath was maddening and unfortunate. Failing to expose the schemers, the financiers, and architects of Hachalu’s killing, will make it possible for such acts to be repeated.

This failure to articulate clearly this tragedy has left a big void and the majority of the Oromos still believing that Hachalu was killed because of his ethnicity by anti-Oromo forces.

For example, in the U.S. during any tragedy let alone in the scale that took place in Ethiopia where hundreds killed, billions of property destroyed in the city of Shashamene and others, even in the death of one person in such heinous act would have required many press releases and news conferences immediately and thereafter so that the public knows the truth and only the truth without any equivocation. The Ethiopian government seems to want to bury the truth or does not have a strategy to defend its reputation.

The government of Ethiopia has failed and  left a big scar or deep wound for another ethnic conflict by failing to discharge all the facts regarding the beloved Hachalu death and the plotters.

There should have been an extensive education of the Ethiopian people as to why, who, and how regarding the killing of Hachalu. Even Dr. Merera Gudina was planning to raise this question to Dr. Abiy during a meeting with parliament if he was given an opportunity.

These doubts need to be addressed to build public confidence in the government. Did OLF, with the help of OMN, orchestrated all this in order to take over Ethiopia or was it an unplanned spontaneous reaction that resulted in death and destruction? People are thirsty for facts. The facts will set them free and bring a swift healing to all parties.

I have tried to look at all the press releases and pronouncements regarding Hachalu’s death, but so far I have not seen anything  convincingly to refute these charges that the Ethiopian government has nothing to do with it. While I am not accusing  the government; however, I have not seen any significant effort to inform and educate the public about the facts. I am sorry to express my disappointment of this failure by the Ethiopian government to articulate to the world the truth about Hachalu’s killing instead of creating the appearance of a cover-up or sheer incompetence in managing its public relations.

The justice minister’s brief press release was highly inadequate and not convincing. In such a momentous and dire situation, one is expected to have mastered all available facts and express with confidence and straight eye to the world, that the Ethiopian government is sharing all the evidence in its possession and no stone was left unturned in doing that.

It’s great to be a great communicator, like Dr. Abiy is, but there is nothing more important than using such talent to save Ethiopian from another tragedy like that happened in June associated with the death of Hachalu and its aftermath.

The Ethiopian government should have invited all local and international media and share all the facts and to cast any doubts and to help and heal all Ethiopians who felt such a great loss by the death of Hachalu.

The Rwandan genocide, Holocaust and other saddest moments in history are shared and told often, so that they will not be repeated. Ethiopia’s tragic situation deserve the same in order to avoid a repeat.

The Ethiopian government will not be able to stop another tragedy if it is not willing or able to tell the world what really happened in Ethiopia on June 29 and thereafter. It should have made documentary of the mayhem share it for the world to witness the tragedy. It should have  invited the international media to visit Shashamene, Zeway and other cities to see the devastation, the homeless, and to talk  to those who lost love ones.

The current narrative as shared by OLF-Shane media is that the Oromos are the victims,  without mentioning the people that were slaughtered and burned in Shashamene and other places or those who lost their homes, properties and made homeless by the actions of OLF supporters.

In Shashamene and other cities, the police and the mayors of these cities and towns looked the other way when people were being killed and property being destroyed because Ethiopia sadly has a constitution based on ethnicity that pits one group against another. All the leaders of these cities are appointed based on their ethnic origin instead of being elected or based on competence.

Such tragedies will continue by design as well as by catalysts like the killing of prominent Oromos or Amharas and others. Instead of looking for justice to take its course, groups rush for vengeance against other ethnic groups because the system is designed to pit one against another and the people have been miseducated to believe that they are enemies instead of citizens of Ethiopia. This system has become a catalyst in creating millions of displaced people and hundreds of deaths and billions of property destruction.  Ethiopia has more internally displaced people than any country and the agony will continue because of the current constitution designed by the previous anti-Ethiopian regime remains.

Until the Ethiopian government fully exposes the architects of Hachalu’s killers and vindicate itself, eliminate ethnic policing, allows elections of mayors, as well as educate citizens through public and private media in the importance of rule of law, similar tragedies will be part and parcel of Ethiopia. 

Ethiopia besides being the seat of the African union, cradle of mankind, carries great historical symbol for  people of African origin. Ethiopia earned this position as one of the longest independent nations, and for repulsing Western colonial occupation. Despite this legacy, Ethiopians have never enjoyed rule of law or fair and free election.

Representative of warring factions from South Sudan are in Ethiopia to hammer out their differences and to form democratic union where all different groups can live in peace. Unfortunately, Ethiopia is not a place to teach such lessons. The Ethiopian regime pretended for long for things that it is not in order to earn respect and foreign aid.

In Ethiopia the government perfected the Machiavellian system where ethnic groups are pitted one against another, embraced the bantustanization of Ethiopia, resources are controlled like in North Korea and Cuba by the state, where the state owns land, access to Internet, telecommunication, banking and  all other vital means of production causing many Ethiopian to live a precarious often miserable economic and political existence. Freedom of the press, free assembly, civil societies, and political parties are barley existent or survive at the whims of the regime.

In 2005, the late Meles Zenawi allowed unfettered debate among candidates believing that he was assured of victory, but when the polls started coming, he realized that he was losing in all major cities and in most of the country side except in Tigre, Silte, Hadre regions, so he stopped the countdown and declared victory. When protest erupted  he used deadly force killing over 190 peaceful protesters and arrested hundreds of thousands. The U.S. government and African leaders looked the other way because the sway Ethiopia holds in Africa.  After  Meles emerged unscathed except condemnation by a few representatives in Europe and the U.S.,  leaders in Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Sudan realized that if  Meles can get  away by stealing an election, they can do it too. The Kenyan attempt was bloody, others were less bloody, but the pattern for dynasties or one party apparatus were set in motion. Now some elections in Africa are ceremonial because the winner is predetermined.

Ethiopia holds the key to democracy in Africa. So in order to restore democracy in Africa, Ethiopia as the seat of the OAU has to uphold the rule of law,  respect free and fair election, then the rest of Africa will follow suit. Ethiopia plays a significant leadership role and that role has to include in promoting democracy in the continent. African leaders come to Ethiopia in a regular basis at least once a year and see  Ethiopia’s oppressive system year after year surviving and the West giving a blind eye. So  goes the rest of Africa.

Ethiopia will hold its true place in history not as the physical capital of Africa, or as the cradle of man kind, only when it upholds the rule of law and becomes  a pride for the rest of the oppressed African masses, as it did during pre-colonial Africa. The Obama administration has tremendous power on Ethiopia, a country landlocked and far dependent on aid ill can afford to alienate the West.

All Africans from  Eritrea, Ethiopia and others are yearning for democracy and for American leadership. Unfortunately, leadership has been reactionary only willing to put out fires instead of building a roadmap for democracy for the continent.

Some countries like Ethiopia are exempt from respecting the rule of law despite their repeated defiance. Many African leaders are aspiring to anoint themselves and their children for life whether it is good for the country or whether the people support it or not. The West especially Washington is eager to acquiesce in the name of stability, which in this case is a mirage, because there is no stability without respect for rule of law.

Billions of souls from Third World nations are potential terrorists, unless we end their extreme poverty, oppression and suffering. For Africa, the first place to start is Ethiopia.

Unless other African countries including Ethiopia pledge to hold free and fair election, respect the rule of law and respect the rights of their citizens regardless of their tribe or religion, the leaders of South Sudan may not want to be an exception to the norm. In the long run, for Africa to enjoy peace, stability and economic growth, ethnic and/or one party dictatorship has to be forbidden.  The writer can be reached at  dula06@gmail.com