Dula's Blog

Aug 21

TPLF Plotted With Egypt and Sudan to Overthrow the Abiy Government

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | Tags: Abdella Hamdok of Sudan, Border conflict, Did Eritrea participate in the war, Dr. Abiy, Egypt, Ethiopia, General Sisi of Egypt, Sudan, The War in Tigray, TPLF | Categories: Events | No Comments

Various indicators suggest that TPLf was in cahoots with anti-Ethiopian forces to restore its hegemony for another 27+ years. Thanks to Eritrea and Ethiopian armed forces, it did not happen. The devastating and horrendous attack on Ethiopian armed forces on November 3, 2020 was planned and executed in consultation with Egypt and Sudan. There is no specific public document yet, but the surprise visit by Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to Ethiopia on December 13 was to salvage a failing enterprise without realizing that Ethiopia had already destroyed most of TPLF forces.

The agreement TPLF engineered was meant to satisfy Sudan’s claim on land and to address Egyptian concern on the Abay Dam in return for their support of TPLF to reclaim power. Helping TPLF win the war was designed to accommodate both Egyptian and Sudanese demands.

Eritrean involvement in helping Ethiopia became clearer because Eritrea did not want TPLF in Addis again. According to Egyptian and Sudanese calculations, if TPLF can destroy 60-80% of Ethiopian armed forces and equipment that was located in Tigray, Ethiopia’s ability to fight back would be impossible or insignificant. In case, if Ethiopia tries to fight back and the war becomes extended, Egypt and Sudan will come to the aid of TPLF.

Tedros visit to Egypt is a good indication of coordination

Egyptian public and media statements and visit by Tedros Adhanom to Cairo all indicate coordination. Tedros’s visit was to urge Egypt to intervene when TPLF’s so called blitzkrieg (lightning war), as described by Sekuture Getachew did not work and TPLF started to retreat (TPLF Admits Starting the Conflict). Instead of directly intervening, Egypt may have given a nod for Sudan to make a move on Ethiopia’s territory. Egypt is very careful in rushing into a war since June 1967, after Israel stunned Egypt by destroying the entire Egyptian air force on the ground in in a single day. However, if the war has dragged, it was possible for both Egypt and Sudan to enter in some capacity. For the sake of Ethiopia, the swift end of the war has frustrated this plan.

Eritrea saved itself and Ethiopia by helping Ethiopia in some capacity, such as allowing retreating Ethiopian troops to enter and regroup. Whether Eritrea intervened materially or not, Eritrea’s support was pivotal. We may never know the truth, but without Eritrea’s support Ethiopia’s situation would have been quite different and dreary.

Failure of Intelligence by both Eritrea and Ethiopia

Failure of Ethiopia and Eritrea to anticipate and abort TPLF’s plot is disturbing and one hopes they learned their lesson now and work to end Sudanese and Egyptian machination. Sudanese move to claim land from Gonder or the Amhara region, while leaving out area controlled by TPLF, shows a clear indication of a coordinated plot. Dr. Abiy took a chance given improved relations under his administration with Sudan and out of urgency to move troops to counter TPLF attacks, leaving the Sudanese border unprotected.

Ethiopians are accustomed to disappointment and frustration. However, the Sudanese invasion and TPLF attacks and betrayal were quite shocking and unexpected.

Diplomacy is critical for both Eritrea and Ethiopia

Hopefully, Ethiopia and Eritrea mend their past differences, build their intelligence network, and work towards building their economy while avoiding an unnecessary war with Sudan. Though the combined forces of Sudan and Egypt pose an existential threat, Ethiopia or Eritrea should not rush into war despite provocations from Sudan and Egypt. Frankly, none of them can afford to go to war at this time. The most potent instrument is enhancing more than ever their diplomatic campaign to expose Sudanese invasion as a violation of international law and garner IGAD, African Union and UN support with utmost urgency.

Jul 21

U.S. Diplomacy Wreaks Havoc on Lives of Millions around the World. Americans Rarely know the Truth.

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | Tags: Broken piples, carbon monoxide, dirty water, Egypt, electricity, Energy, Ethiopia, GERD, Rolling Blackout, Sudan, Texas Storm, War, water | Categories: Events | No Comments

While people across Texas and other parts of the U.S. recently suffered from a lack of electricity and water as a result of a winter storm, millions of people in other countries live with blackouts year-round. One of those countries is Ethiopia, where 60% of the population of 115 million has no electricity, and the rest regularly endure blackouts that last hours or even days. And while many developing countries have no way out of their predicament, Ethiopia is one of a few with a plan to change its situation. Ethiopia’s objective depends, however, on the completion of a controversial dam on the “Blue Nile” or Abay River, which contributes the biggest share of the water needs of Egypt and Sudan. Those countries are opposed to Ethiopia’s completion of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as any activity affecting the flow of the river may have an adverse impact on their share of the water, and U.S. involvement in the matter has not helped.

The role of former president Donald Trump in resolving the dispute between Ethiopia and the two upstream countries was a disaster. Trump decided to become a mediator among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt, as a favor to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi and to help himself win the Nobel Peace Prize. Trump referred to General Al-Sisi as his “favorite dictator” after Al-Sisi supposedly made a $10 million donation to Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. General Al-Sisi enjoyed President Trump’s support despite engaging in egregious human rights violations in his own country, declaring himself “president for life” and overthrowing a democratically elected government. According to Tom Campbell, professor of economics at Chapman University, Ethiopia accepted U.S. mediation thinking that the U.S. was a neutral party and a friend to the country.

When Ethiopia refused to accept a deal crafted by Egypt, however, Trump suggested Egypt bomb the dam if Ethiopia proceeds without the proposed agreement, leading some to speculate that Trump’s stance would embolden Egypt to go to war with Ethiopia. Moreover, Trump froze all economic aid to Ethiopia as long as Ethiopia does not sign the agreement, effectively giving Egypt “veto power” regarding the dam. Last year, Egypt received $1.42 billion from the U.S. – a substantial increase from previous years. Egypt has garnered over $81 billion in foreign aid from U.S. taxpayers’ money since 1946. Some of the funds are used to purchase Russian arms, oppress civil society, install puppet regimes in the Horn of Africa, and destabilize non-cooperating states in that part of Africa.

Although the Ethiopian dam is designed to produce power, not irrigation, Egypt is still apprehensive of its consequences. As a result, Egypt is using domestic and foreign proxies to thwart any development efforts in Ethiopia. Egypt was given a monopoly by Britain that ruled Egypt as a protectorate from 1882 to 1956. The British colonial treaty signed in 1929 excluded Ethiopia and gave virtual control over the Nile River to Egypt, even though the Blue Nile originates in Ethiopia, with that country supplying 86% of the water. Another British treaty in 1959 between Sudan and Egypt assigned 55.5 billion cubic meters of the river flow to Egypt and 18.5 billion to Sudan, but none to Ethiopia or other downstream states. Egypt is using diplomatic, military, and economic pressure on Ethiopia to derail the completion of the dam. It indirectly supported Sudan’s invasion of Western Ethiopia and is accused of plotting with the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on November 3, 2020 to overthrow the reformist government led by Ethiopian Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed in the capital Addis Ababa.

Meanwhile, most Ethiopians continue to suffer from a lack of access to water and electricity, without which the country cannot escape its current hardship, grow its economy, and end recurring famine and poverty. Despite its need for electricity, the country was unable to secure financing from the World Bank or other financial institutions on which Egypt had put pressure, so Ethiopia has to rely exclusively on internal financing to build the dam. Now, Egypt and Sudan are threatening Ethiopia with an invasion or sabotage if it proceeds with the dam without their approval or an agreement favorable to their own water supplies. This comes in total denial of Ethiopia’s entitlement to use the Blue Nile for its development to overcome the poverty and famine to which the country has been subjected for many decades.

The U.S. role in expanding access to water and electricity is critical for humanitarian reasons and to promote stability around the world. Also, the U.S. should serve as an impartial mediator to solve world conflicts when needed. Many people lack electricity in developing countries, while others suffer outages and rolling blackouts. In countries like Ethiopia, water is scarce and dirty, and deaths including child mortality from waterborne diseases occur regularly. Because electricity is a scarce commodity, women and young girls are forced to fetch wood in the forest to make a living, rendering them vulnerable to attack. The use of firewood as fuel leads to carbon monoxide poisoning, another common cause of death.

The excruciating life experience pervasive throughout the developing world by no means minimizes the suffering and deaths that took place in Texas and other states – tragedies that could have been avoided with proper preparation. Until countries such as the U.S. set aside greed and ideological and political differences in the interest of managing resources carefully, water, electricity, and other essentials of living will remain scarce for millions of people – not only in Ethiopia but also throughout the world. More importantly, failure to apply U.S. diplomacy in a fair and judicious manner can also create a permanent havoc on the lives of millions around the world.

May 21

Ethiopian Muslims Rights Should be Respected

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | Tags: Abiy Ahmed, Addis Abeba, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Eid, Eid el Fitr, Ethiopia, Ethiopian Muslims, Grand Anwar Mosque, Imam Haji Zumakan Jemal, Irreechaa, Maskal Square, Muslims in Ethiopia, Ramadan | Categories: Events | No Comments

Ethiopian Muslims, as taxpayers, have the right to use any public facility in Ethiopia. The recent controversy raised by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church through its patriarch Office or other government officials to deny Ethiopian Muslims to use Maskel Square for Grand Ethiopian Iftar or for any other purpose is unwarranted. Maskel Square is just a name, it does not say it belongs to Christians only or to anybody. It will serve the enemies of Ethiopia to divide Ethiopians now among religious divisions. Since a TPLF supporter leads the Orthodox Church or other reactionaries, there should be a severe analysis if this is designed to drive a wedge among Ethiopian Muslims and Christians to serve narrow nationalist or TPLF interest or the actual wishes of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church followers. This denial in Addis may be in line with the philosophy in Axum, where Muslims are not allowed to build a mosque since the beginning of time.

After TPLF took over the Orthodox Church, TPLF had its eye on the Muslim leadership. In the process, it tried to pit Muslims against the Orthodox Church, especially against Amharas. However, through the leadership of Imam Haji Zumakan Jemal of the grand Anwar Mosque, Ethiopian Muslims refused to join TPLF. Consequently, many Muslims were killed and imprisoned, including Imam Zumakan, when TPLF sent armed people to remove the leadership and put its appointed leaders.

The recent controversy could be a scheme by the current Patriarch or others to drive wedges between Christians and Muslims and to serve anti-Ethiopian interests. Furthermore, this can antagonize Ethiopian Muslims and make them feel like second-class citizens, which was often the case before 1974.

The intervention of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church (EOTC) and statement led by the Patriarch’s Office suggesting that the event be held somewhere else other than Mesqel Square was unfortunate, as this negates the equality of all religions in Ethiopia and equal access to public venues for Muslims. This could be interpreted as EOTC wants to keep its dominance and preferred status and delegate other religions to second-class status or drive a wedge between the two religions.

The Abiy regime has always stayed silent when tragedies happen in Ataye, in Wollega, and elsewhere. It cannot prevent conflicts before they happened because of poor intelligence or intervene with force when they happened.

I recall the celebration of Irreechaa and other festivals at the Maskel Square/Adebaby. I am not sure if Maskal Square is the proper venue for religious or traditional celebrations. However, what is good for the goose is good for the gander. If it can be used by any religious group or by traditional groups, it would have been fair to allow Muslims to access it. This is a clear indication that there are forces bent backward to destroy Ethiopia by any means necessary, either inflaming ethnic tension or religious differences.

The Abiy regime has failed so far to curtail these forces either by lack of will, lack of power, or in cahoots with them. Nobody knows, but it looks like, in matters of importance to the nation’s survival, he often goes AWL.

Despite his flowery rhetoric and reconciliatory speeches, he is driving Ethiopia into the abyss. People have to be cognizant of this fact and make sure Muslims, Christians, and ethnic groups do not fall for this trap. Imam Haji Zumakan Jemal was my uncle, and I was proud of him when he defied Meles Zenawi to collude with him against Christians. He paid a small price; nonetheless, Ethiopia is in a mortal danger than ever before. If a leader cannot comprehend the gravity of such a mistake, such as oppressing or antagonizing almost half of the country’s population in a trivial matter like this is unfortunate. Furthermore, failure to respond to a TPLF patriarch’s damning press release, allowing Jawar, and others plot to kill Hachalu to start an ethnic war, allow Asamnew Tsege to plot the assassination of Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen, and allowing TPLF to slaughter Ethiopian soldiers while asleep because of poor intelligence shows lack of wisdom and the foresight and abdication of responsibility. It might be time for new leadership or for a new party or for both.

Apr 21

Withdrawing my Articles About Tigray

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | Tags: Abiy Ahmed, Axum, BBC, Eritreans, Ethiopia, Isias Afeworki, Tigray, Tigray Peoples Liberation FRong, TPLF | Categories: Events | No Comments

Given some doubts about the situation in Tigray in terms of possible multiple human rights violations, I am withdrawing all my pieces about the situation until further notice.

Despite my opposition to TPLF, I have great respect and admiration for the people of Tigray for their hard work and spirit of Ethiopiawinet.

So I hope any human rights violation against the people of Tigray stops immediately and without any delay.

Jan 21

Why COVID-19 is Killing Black People Disproportionately?

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | | Categories: Events | No Comments

America has the worst income inequality among the developed world because it has failed to honestly and boldly address its legacy of slavery. Since the Civil War, America managed to make cosmetic changes to absolve itself from its shameful history of enslaving millions of Africans. COVID-19 brought to the front that legacy that many Americans hoped to forget, but never sought to address.

Now many Americans including Anthony Cararamuchi, former Trump White House Communication Director and managing partner of investment firm Skybridge, Ray Dialo, largest hedge manager in the U.S., want it acknowledged and addressed.

Research shows this tragic legacy is harmful to the U. S. economy and has become a stain to the American reputation.

The passing of the CARES Act to soften the economic blow from the pandemic was necessary, as was the case in U.S. rescue of Europe after World War 2, and the rescue of banks during the Great Recession, albeit a controversial one.

The current pandemic disproportionately hit minorities, especially blacks who remain in the bottom of the economic ladder. The pandemic also exposed the economic disparity that translates to inadequate access to education and healthcare.

Ray Dialo added, “Widening income inequality and under-investment in public education pose an existential risk for the U.S.” and “leaving so many children in poverty and not educating them well is the equivalent of child abuse”

Larry English, Special to the Times said, inequality is a disease that passes down through generations and now partnered with COVID-19 became a toxic brew killing the old and weak.

Income inequality is also hurting America’s ability to grow its economy and utilize its citizens gainfully and productively. Recent research by McKinsey found this economic disparity has other consequences. It has a dampening effect on consumption and investment costing the US economy between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion in the next ten years. This is equivalent to 4 to 6 percent of the projected GDP in 2028. Closing the racial economic gap is a win for African-Americans and for the economy.

Anthony Cararamuchi thinks the coronavirus crisis could be an opportunity to close the economic gaps in our society. He also thinks this should be “a wake-up call” for policymakers, politicians, macro-economists, the very wealthy, and the Forbes 400 to do something about it, as the pandemic exposed the gap between the haves and have-nots.

COVID’s disproportionate killing of African-Americans is not a coincidence. It only shows their economic standing and vulnerability in this society. McKinsey & Company, a consulting firm found that African-American’s net worth is one-tenth of white people.

Many countries, and businesses under duress often get subsidies or relief from the U.S. government. The majority of Blacks in America have been under duress and in jeopardy under the current system, facing abject poverty and injustice just to name a few.

Since the beginning of this great nation justice and economic parity for Black people has yet to come despite its great motto “justice for all and under God”

A bill for the rescue of the poor and blacks from their current predicament is a moral and economic imperative. It does not have to include handouts. How would the rescue program be handled? It will include funding Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), distressed schools, and establishing vocational and STEM centers in minority districts.

Nonprofits like Appropriate Development Technology, Inc., promote and encourage underprivileged children to gravitate towards STEM-education so that they can become future engineers and scientists in order to break the cycle of poverty that is prevalent in the African-American community. Many nonprofits have a problem of scaling such program for lack of funding. Increasing minority presence in STEM to 12-15% from 3% where stands now can have a dramatic effect. The absence of African-American in STEM is a factor exacerbating income disparity and a barrier to bridging income inequality.

The rescue plan is not a handout, but for a lasting solution, where underprivileged adults are given a chance for vocational training, and children to immerse in STEM education to improve their economic standing. This will reduce welfare, unemployment, and the prison population.

Some kind of intervention is overdue because it’s a moral and economic imperative. The African-American community needs a rescue plan because it’s in jeopardy and under duress.

When a member of a family is under duress, the whole family is under duress. Blacks are a member of the American family whether we like it or not, when they are under duress the whole country is under duress.

The fact that COVID is killing more blacks is no coincidence, but it means they remain vulnerable to any economic and health shocks. Poor education, poor health services, and living in high crime area are contributing factors. It is simply their economic standing that made them vulnerable to COVID. It may be now or never for President Biden and Congress to consider a rescue or a CARES Act for African-Americans. It will be a sad moment and a great moral failure if this opportunity is missed.

.

Dec 20

Trump Declares War on Ethiopia: Ethiopia at a crosshair!

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | Tags: Addis Abeba, Africa, Aswan Dam, Blue Nile, Cairo, Donald Trump, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Egypt, Ethiopia, GERD, Great Rennaisance dam, Jared Kushner, Khartoum, Money laundering by Egypt to help Donald Trump, President of the United States, President Sisi, Prime Minister of Ethioia, River Nile, Saudi Arabia, Steven Mnuchin, Sudan, war between Egypt and Ethiopia, War between Ethiopian and Egypt, Water Conflicts | Categories: Events | 1 Comment

Ethiopia and Egypt may go to war thanks to Donald Trump. On Friday, October 23, 2020 at news conference, he encouraged and goaded Egypt to bomb the Abay Dam, the largest dam in Africa.

Former Secretary Tillerson described Donald Trump as a moron, now I believe he is not just a moron, but a reckless one too, otherwise, he would not be saying something crazy like encouraging Egypt to bomb the Abay Dam. Instead of using the U.S. diplomatic channels to find a peaceful solution, he opted to act as a lackey for his favorite dictator probably as a payback for the illegal $10M donation in 2016.

If Egypt heeds his advice, it is likely Ethiopia will blow up the Aswan Dam, and it will be more costly to Egypt (no electricity and millions will perish). Furthermore, Ethiopia has so many unemployed engineers, it can build so many irrigation dams in all tributaries and along the Abay River, there will be no or little water flowing to Egypt.

This may also entail a war between Black Africa and the Arabs, and it will be a continental war, U.S. and Egypt versus Black Africa and the rest of the world.

Ethiopia is only asking an equitable share of the Nile, no more or less. Egypt is not losing any water now or in the future except there might be a chance during the filling period. At that time, Egypt has enough reservoir or water stored on the Aswan Dam to compensate during that period. So there is no ground for war unless Donald Trump sparks it to win an election or payback for the loan in such dangerous fashion.

Ethiopia had many wars with Egypt, some of them lead by Confederat American generals, but Ethiopia always prevailed. It will prevail again, but Egypt will forever lose it goodwill with Ethiopia and potential any water, as Ethiopia may put many small to medium irrigation dams instead of huge electric dams. If Egypt opts to invade, it will lose and it has to pay to build the dam if they want any water again.

Ethiopia is the origin of humanity, center of great civilization, and one of the longest and independent surviving Black nations, and it will continue despite machination by Egypt, Donald Trump, and others.

At the behest of Egypt, and indirectly Saudi Arabia, the U.S enticed Ethiopia to enter into a discussion on the Great Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia is building on the Abay (Nile) River. Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary, and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law were assigned to engage in foreign policy, an expertise belonging to the State Department. It looked very suspicious and odd for the two gentlemen to engage in water conflicts and African diplomacy.

Why did Trump choose Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner instead of seasoned diplomats from the State Department to solve a diplomatic and water dispute? Both have no qualifications whatsoever in the technology of building dams, colonial history of Africa, or water conflicts.

Kushner, Trump and Mnuchin are allies of Saudi Arabia and friends of President Sisi. Was the verdict written by Egypt before the arbitration started, as it was announced without an agreement and in the absence of Ethiopia? It smells like the old justice system in Dixie where blacks were picked randomly as murder suspects and thrown into a death row cell before trial or a verdict.

Egypt outwitted Ethiopia, especially Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who has just been in power for less than two years to engage the U.S. without fully understanding the influence of Saudi Arabia and Egypt on the Trump administration. Both can get away with murder as long as Donald Trump is in the White House, like Saudi Arabia did with the murder of journalist Jamall Kashoggi and Egypt with thousands of Egyptian lives.

Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner presented an agreement without consulting Ethiopia that stated any infringement on Egypt’s water consumption from the Nile River is unacceptable. The Arab League followed suit and stated that any infringement against Egypt water quota is a declaration of war on the whole Arab world. Now Ethiopia is facing a confrontation with Egypt backed by the United States and the Arab World.

Now embolden by U.S. and the Arab world, Egypt wants to dictate every aspect of the operation of the dam, otherwise threatening to destroy it and even declare war on Ethiopia. Furthermore, instead of creating a diplomatic and an economic solution to the problem, Egypt is going for a diplomatic and military knockout by isolating Ethiopia.

British colonial treaty signed in 1929 excluded Ethiopia and gave virtual control over the river to Egypt, even though Ethiopia is supply 85% of the water. Another British treaty in 1959 between Sudan and Egypt assigned 55.5 billion cubic meters of the river flow to Egypt and 18.5 to Sudan, but none to Ethiopia or other downstream nations.

It is highly disturbing why Steven Mnuchin or Jared Kushner were engaging in water conflicts or diplomatic issues involving Africa. Most of all Steven Mnuchin or Jared Kushner are not a student of history or colonialism that Egypt is relying to preserve its share of the water coming from Ethiopia. Britain set the ground rule on the usage of the Nile River without consulting any of the upstream countries in favor of Egypt, which was a British colony. Egypt is flexing its political and military power to keep a one sided colonial treaty in force.

Unfortunately, Egypt’s arrogant stand emanates because it has the military and diplomatic advantage over Ethiopia and because of a strong relationship between President Sisi, Donald Trump and support from Saudi Arabia.

Donald Trump’s failure to be a neutral arbitrator may end up causing a big war. Egypt may be tempted to strike the dam with American weapons. Egypt is the largest recipient of America’s aid in Africa despite being a dictatorship. On the other hand, Dr. Abiy is a Nobel Laurette that introduced democracy, free press, free market, and made peace with Eritrea.

Now his ambitious plan to transition Ethiopia into a democracy will be short lived if he were to engage in war with Egypt because of Donald Trump’s abdication to serve as a neutral arbitrator instead of a hired gun.

This unprecedented involvement of Donald Trump in diplomatic affairs in Africa may lead to a war between Africa and the Arab World. A war unfortunately none of them can afford.

If the task of arbitration was given to someone versed in diplomacy and history of colonialism in Africa, it could have been avoided. Both Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner are real estate gurus not diplomats. Mnuchin got notoriety as “Foreclosure King” during the Great Recession for foreclosing on U.S. homeowners mostly minorities, often profiting on their misfortunes to make millions.

Ethiopia is a very a poor and proud country trying to address urgent economic and energy needs of its growing population, standing around 110 million. It has faced many invasions in the past from Europeans and two major ones from Egypt. If Egypt bombs the dam and make it inoperable, Ethiopia can retaliate. This opens the possibility for Ethiopia to destroy the Aswan dam, as well as divert water using tributaries of the Blue Nile, especially during the summer months. This may force Egypt to invade Ethiopia. As in the past, Egypt will lose the war and the result could be devastating economically to both countries; however, Egypt will lose forever any leverage or ability to dictate to Ethiopia with uncompromising demands.

It will be smart for Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to open their borders and promote economic integration instead of looking to the West and the Middle East for their survival, which has not paid off so far besides making them client and dependent states.

There is no love lost between Egypt and Ethiopia. For years, Egypt has consistently tried to keep Ethiopia in turmoil and underdeveloped by supporting secessionist groups, supplying arms to invaders such as Somalia during 1977-78 war. In 1993, Egypt orchestrated to make Ethiopia landlocked by supporting the secession of Eritrea with the help of then UN Secretary Boutros-Boutros Ghali, an Egyptian in contravention of U.N Chapter 1 and article 2 that demands respect for the territorial integrity of all of its members. Eritrea’s secession was finalized in six month, while Somaliland, Western Sahara and others have been waiting for decades because of Egypt’s and Boutros Ghali’s desire to harm Ethiopia.

On the other hand, the people of Ethiopia and Egypt have many common bonds. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church and the Egyptian Orthodox Church are both Coptic and follow similar rituals. Many Ethiopian Muslims admired Gamal Abdel Nasser as a great leader of Africa and a champion of the Muslim cause.

The State Department or the Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Tibor Nagy was not present or invited to the mediation of the three African countries. It was a fait accompli. The cards were stacked against Ethiopia, which has only wanted to build a dam still supplying 85% of the water for Egypt.

The mediation by the U.S. was a charade primarily aimed at pleasing Egypt and Saudi Arabia. This is unfortunately a recent pattern of U.S. diplomacy sacrificing one ally to please another with a stronger influence or deeper pockets. A similar scenario was played in conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Russia and Ukraine and numerous others. Everything is transactional, not grounded on principle or diplomatic norms.

Sadly, Egypt and other Arab governments still maintain a colonial mentality like the Europeans when it comes sub-Sahara Africa. They want to dominate and have a superiority complex. Even now, their pejorative term for all Black people is abd, slave.

Instead of assigning the task to an impartial and honest broker, Donald Trump showed his true transactional spirit and sacrificed Ethiopia to appease friends with deep pockets. This, of course, did not come as a surprise to anyone who had been paying attention to the Trump administration’s policies and alliances in the Middle East. Ethiopia is less valuable in Donald Trump’s transactional world, so it is worthy throwing to the dogs.

According to Tom Campbell, professor of economics at Chapman University, Ethiopia successfully managed to keep outside interference in the negotiation between the parties. It only accepted U.S. mediation thinking that the U.S. was a neutral party and a friend of Ethiopia. What a disappointment?

Approximately 65 percent of Ethiopians do not have reliable electricity. Without electricity, Ethiopia cannot grow its economy and end its recurring famine and abject poverty.

Unless the U.S. changes it blind support for Egypt, this will lead to a war between the Arab world and Sub-Sahara Africa; and Donald Trump will have blood on his hands.

Aug 20

Ethiopia: Expose architects of Hachalu’s Death

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | Tags: Amhara, Dr. Abiy, Ethiopia, Hachalu Hundessa, Killil, OMN, Oromo, Shashamene, Zeway | Categories: Events | No Comments

There are certain events that require adequate and prompt explanations because the very future of the country depends on it. There was nothing more pressing, more important and burning issue than the need to adequately explain the death of Hachalu Hundessa in particular who orchestrated the killing and why.

In June, 2019, the handling or lack of prompt and adequate explanation of the murder of Amhara regional president Ambachew Mekonnen and General Asaminew Tsige has alienated many Amharas from the Abiy government. In June, 2020, the same thing is going with Oromos. By failing to fully expose the architects of Hachalu’s killers, Dr. Abiy has angered and alienating many Oromos. The enemies of Ethiopia who orchestrated these tragedies every year including the attempted assassination of Dr. Abiy are eroding his base of support, winning the PR game, and destabilizing the country. Unfortunately, the government of Ethiopia has gone AWOL in its responsibility to apprehend the culprits before the act or refute and to debunk accusations of complicity and hanging it squarely on the necks of OLF and TPLF.

In June, 2018 anti-reform forces tried to assassinate Dr. Abiy, in June, 2019 assassinated General Seare Mekonnen,Chief of General Staff of the Ethiopian National Defense, and in June, 2020, they assassinated Hachalu, all in an effort to restore the TPLF regime or fan genocide against Amharas and other minorities.

The minister of justice and the Prime Minister’s Office failed to share adequately with the local and the international media who orchestrated these attacks, and recently who financed the killing of Hachalu and why.

Despite the detention of three individuals, the international and even local media helped by the OMN and OLF-Shane supporters was awashed with the news that the Ethiopian government was the culprit. The news media including human rights organization such as Amnesty International were overwhelmingly influenced by OMN and OLF narrative that the Ethiopian government was the suspect in the death of Hachalu.

In addition, OMN and OLF were able to inform their supporters that the Ethiopian government was again the perpetrator of Hachalu’s death. This would have required a swift rebuttal by the ministry of justice or any relevant arm of the government.

Unfortunately, there was no clear and unambiguous refutation of these charges, charges made by OLF and its followers. The media was completely blanketed by the death of Hachalu, but the loss of life and property that followed in the aftermath was barely covered. This failure by the Ethiopian government to share with the international media has turned Ethiopia and its citizens forever as killer of Hachalu for expressing his views. Of course, his views were not anti-Ethiopia, but it was shared in that manner by OMN.

Failure to properly and adequately relay the tragedies that followed the killing of Hachalu and the aftermath was maddening and unfortunate. Failing to expose the schemers, the financiers, and architects of Hachalu’s killing, will make it possible for such acts to be repeated.

This failure to articulate clearly this tragedy has left a big void and the majority of the Oromos still believing that Hachalu was killed because of his ethnicity by anti-Oromo forces.

For example, in the U.S. during any tragedy let alone in the scale that took place in Ethiopia where hundreds killed, billions of property destroyed in the city of Shashamene and others, even in the death of one person in such heinous act would have required many press releases and news conferences immediately and thereafter so that the public knows the truth and only the truth without any equivocation. The Ethiopian government seems to want to bury the truth or does not have a strategy to defend its reputation.

The government of Ethiopia has failed and left a big scar or deep wound for another ethnic conflict by failing to discharge all the facts regarding the beloved Hachalu death and the plotters.

There should have been an extensive education of the Ethiopian people as to why, who, and how regarding the killing of Hachalu. Even Dr. Merera Gudina was planning to raise this question to Dr. Abiy during a meeting with parliament if he was given an opportunity.

These doubts need to be addressed to build public confidence in the government. Did OLF, with the help of OMN, orchestrated all this in order to take over Ethiopia or was it an unplanned spontaneous reaction that resulted in death and destruction? People are thirsty for facts. The facts will set them free and bring a swift healing to all parties.

I have tried to look at all the press releases and pronouncements regarding Hachalu’s death, but so far I have not seen anything convincingly to refute these charges that the Ethiopian government has nothing to do with it. While I am not accusing the government; however, I have not seen any significant effort to inform and educate the public about the facts. I am sorry to express my disappointment of this failure by the Ethiopian government to articulate to the world the truth about Hachalu’s killing instead of creating the appearance of a cover-up or sheer incompetence in managing its public relations.

The justice minister’s brief press release was highly inadequate and not convincing. In such a momentous and dire situation, one is expected to have mastered all available facts and express with confidence and straight eye to the world, that the Ethiopian government is sharing all the evidence in its possession and no stone was left unturned in doing that.

It’s great to be a great communicator, like Dr. Abiy is, but there is nothing more important than using such talent to save Ethiopian from another tragedy like that happened in June associated with the death of Hachalu and its aftermath.

The Ethiopian government should have invited all local and international media and share all the facts and to cast any doubts and to help and heal all Ethiopians who felt such a great loss by the death of Hachalu.

The Rwandan genocide, Holocaust and other saddest moments in history are shared and told often, so that they will not be repeated. Ethiopia’s tragic situation deserve the same in order to avoid a repeat.

The Ethiopian government will not be able to stop another tragedy if it is not willing or able to tell the world what really happened in Ethiopia on June 29 and thereafter. It should have made documentary of the mayhem share it for the world to witness the tragedy. It should have invited the international media to visit Shashamene, Zeway and other cities to see the devastation, the homeless, and to talk to those who lost love ones.

The current narrative as shared by OLF-Shane media is that the Oromos are the victims, without mentioning the people that were slaughtered and burned in Shashamene and other places or those who lost their homes, properties and made homeless by the actions of OLF supporters.

In Shashamene and other cities, the police and the mayors of these cities and towns looked the other way when people were being killed and property being destroyed because Ethiopia sadly has a constitution based on ethnicity that pits one group against another. All the leaders of these cities are appointed based on their ethnic origin instead of being elected or based on competence.

Such tragedies will continue by design as well as by catalysts like the killing of prominent Oromos or Amharas and others. Instead of looking for justice to take its course, groups rush for vengeance against other ethnic groups because the system is designed to pit one against another and the people have been miseducated to believe that they are enemies instead of citizens of Ethiopia. This system has become a catalyst in creating millions of displaced people and hundreds of deaths and billions of property destruction. Ethiopia has more internally displaced people than any country and the agony will continue because of the current constitution designed by the previous anti-Ethiopian regime remains.

Until the Ethiopian government fully exposes the architects of Hachalu’s killers and vindicate itself, eliminate ethnic policing, allows elections of mayors, as well as educate citizens through public and private media in the importance of rule of law, similar tragedies will be part and parcel of Ethiopia.

Jul 19

Body cameras alone will not solve police brutality against Black People

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | Tags: Black lives matter, Donald Trump, income inequality, Police Body Cameras, Police brutality, prejudice, President Obama, Slavery, systematic racism, USA | Categories: Events | No Comments

Body cameras alone will not solve the problem with police brutality against Blacks. Eric Garner’s episode was videotaped. Bill Clinton successfully unseated George H. W. Bush by saying ” It’s the economy, stupid”. It is not only Police Brutality that President Obama has to worry about. It is economics. Most of the blacks killed by police are usually poor, unemployed or underemployed.

President Obama said the Eric Garner case “speaks” to the larger issues that we’ve been talking about now for the last week, the last month, the last year — and sadly, for decades. And that is, the concern on the part of too many minority communities that law enforcement is not working with them and dealing with them in a fair way. He is right that there is mistrust, but he is wrong about the primary cause of the conflict between Blacks and cops around the country. It is pure economics that he has failed so far to address.

The primary issue is minority unemployment and underemployment. I see many young African-Americans hanging out near car washes, near convenient stores and on corner streets seeking a means to make a living, while exposing themselves to the dangers of police suspicion.

The president’s recent immigration bill is also a cause for concern for Blacks struggling to make a living and competing for low skilled jobs. Many of the immigrants are low wage workers who will directly compete with low wage African-Americans. Most employers prefer Hispanics and others ethnic groups over Blacks primarily because immigrants demand less wages and are willing to perform tasks without question or demands.

According to the New York Times (5/12/2013), interest groups are shaping the immigration bill, but there is no plan to upgrade or train especially Blacks that will be displaced by waves of new immigrants for low skilled jobs. This undoubtedly impacts negatively some poor and unskilled blacks that will be displaced.

The focus is not to blame the Police or the new immigrants for the predicament of Blacks in America. African-Americans make up roughly 11% of the U.S. population, but represent only 1% of the workforce employed by Silicon Valley and other high tech companies. In addition, the race gap in wealth between the median black family and the median white family is 20 fold according Pewresearch. Furthermore, the U.S. incarcerates more African-Americans than any country in the world on a per capita basis.

For unskilled or less educated blacks there is no route to escape lifelong poverty unless Congress and President Obama step up to create job training or education for this largely disaffected and vulnerable group.

Eric Ganter and Michael Brown are victims of economics, not just police brutality. Eric Garner was trying to make a living by selling loose cigarettes to support his six children and a wife. If he was trained as a welder, pipefitter, air conditioning technician, plumber or in some other trade craft, he would not have become a victim of police brutality.

The conflict between Blacks and police and Blacks and the rest of society is directly related to the lack of gainful employment that forces some to gravitate to the wrong crowd and to other dangerous jobs such as selling drugs, hanging out in car washes, in the corner store, shop lifting cigarettes or other un-salutary behaviors

In year 2000 under President Clinton, we proposed putting technology training centers in the Ghettos and Barrios to train minorities and other economically disadvantaged groups when another Immigration Bill was introduced to bring over one million tech workers from India and Taiwan to support the tech industries. The powerful technology lobby derailed the amendment and another opportunity to transform America and the minority community was lost.

Dula Abdu is a strong advocate for leveraging technology to bridge the economic divide. He is a former banker and economist. Currently runs a small technology center in Houston. He can be reached at dula06@gmail.com

Jul 19

Bridging the Economic Divide in America

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | | Categories: Events | No Comments

In order to bridge the economic divide that has been going on for a long time and that is getting worse requires innovative solutions. Some of the countries that are succeeding in bridging the economic divide are those leveraging technology.

Such a strategy requires reaching out to the most economically disadvantaged communities. The simplest and the most cost effective strategy will be to create a mini Silicon Valley / technology corridors close to disadvantaged areas by bringing government and private partnership to transform these communities.

Those countries that realized that importance of technological skills include countries like Israel, Ireland, S. Korea and many more. Those that have employed technology effectively have improved their productivity and their standard of living for good. For the economically disadvantaged, leveraging technology is imperative. This will enable them to bridge the economic gap with minimum expenditure of capital and in a shorter time.

How to go about it? Simple, imitate other successful models used in the creation of the Silicon Valley in San Francisco , the Research Triangle in the North Carolina, and the Silicon Wadi (Valley) in Israel and many others places that systematically improved the living standards of their citizens and brighten their futures. The fact that there are many Indian doctors and engineers around the world is no accident, it was the work of visionary leaders in the 60s who planted the seed by establishing many IT centers.

To serve historically disadvantaged communities would require attracting minority students to science and technology and providing vocational and advanced technological education to those suffering from unemployment and underemployment. “African-Americans make up roughly 11% of the U.S. population, but represent only 1-2% of the workforce at most Silicon Valley and tech companies. In addition, the race gap in wealth between the median black family and the median white family is 20 fold according to Pew research. Also the U.S. has the highest per capita incarnation of Black people in the world. This is related to f lack of education that leads to gainful employment.

Why technology education? International Labor Organization (ILO) in the past projected that there will be 1.2 billion young people around the world looking for work and only 300 million jobs to go around. According to Forbes Magazine over 90% of the 300 million jobs will be in science, technology and mathematics.

Thus the most efficient way to address these gaps and the faster way to transform these communities once and for all is to leverage technology and provide skill-based training. The alternative is to keep the status quo and see the racial polarization and eventually racial violence to continue. The most dynamic economies or communities are those who leverage technology. For example, Austin as a city, Silicon Valley in San Francisco, Research Triangle in North Carolina, countries like Singapore, Israel, China, Taiwan, S. Korea or most of the other Asian Tigers did not happen by accident. Leaders with a vision made it possible.

To lift the people out of poverty once and for all and make them a beacon of hope for others would require; training people in the community in vocational and technology related fields and simultaneously inviting tech companies to relocate. The technology courses will be demand driven serving the Energy and the high tech industry especially in cities like Houston, and will be short and cost effective.

With proper foundation it will be possible to create/mint the necessary workforce to meet the needs of industry and to transform communities. Such an investment has rendered the highest return for real estate owners, industry and the community, as demonstrated in Silicon Valley and other similar settings.

It behooves one to make a note of the fact that Silicon Valley, the Research Triangle, Silicon Wadi, and other successful institutions did not happen by accident. Visionary leaders created them and transformed those communities. The U.S. has the opportunity to change the course of history. The question is does it have the gusto to dare such a drastic transformation or not.

Jan 16

Have we failed the future generations?

Posted by Ethiodemocrat | | Categories: Events | No Comments

Our brothers and sisters in Ethiopia, their children, grandchildren and all future generations to come have been put at risk because the action or in-action of the current generation. Have w failed them and put their lives and their futures at risk?

Whether it was our making or that of DERG, EPLF, Woyanes, we let it happen by becoming mere spectators. Of course, some helped or made financial donations to Kingit, EPRP, Ginbot 7 or other national or secessionist organizations with the believe that they will do the job or just to absolve us from guilty feeling.

Some of the actions that we have taken in terms of donation, chitchat at the coffee shop, at seminars, or writing articles did not bear any fruits, as they have irreparably worsened the future and the plight of all Ethiopians.

We have failed them. Ethiopians because of our inaction or actions feel trapped; feel hopeless. There are secessionist like Eritreans that think divorce will bring them same solace, happiness or freedom; there are those who think the removal of Woyanes will bring them hope and peace; there are those who do not care.

Despite these pressing and precarious times, most of us in the Diaspora have done little, despite our capacity to shape the direction and the future of Ethiopia. Of course, there are those who think the future of Ethiopia can be shaped by engaging in armed struggle because the Woyanes have repeatedly stated that is the only way they will relinquish power and there are those who gave up.

Unfortunately, most change in government does not come by force of arms. If they come by force of arms, they have to be taken again by force of arms. The only stable democratic transitions are those taken using civil disobedience. The recent demonstrations attest to this fact. Students in Oromia region did not use force to stalemate Woyanes, but civil disobedience and activism. If the rest of the country were to join them with a common purpose, the system could be brought to a standstill.

Those of us in the Diaspora can force Washington, as the Guy lobby did to listen to our demands and tell Woyanes to stop the killing and to listen to the people of Ethiopia.

Of course, we don’t want chaos to reign with an abrupt departure or collapse of the regime, but a formation of a transition government with a call for a fair and free election will bring some hope and peace to Ethiopia.

In order to do that, we need to win friends in Congress by creating a strong and broad PAN-Ethiopian lobby that can shape the transitional government and the future of Ethiopia politically and economically.

Ethiopians and African people face hopeless economic and political conditions with rampant corruption, religious and ethnic conflicts. The future appears dismal. Africa has immense natural resources, but faces abject poverty due to catastrophic leadership. Using our PAN-Ethiopian lobby, we can advocate good governance, rule of law and establish a means to safeguard political, economic, and religious freedom. The objective of the PAC will include the promotion of transparency, free and fair election, and lobby against leaders who undermine the rule of law.

In order to ensure that Ethiopia becomes a viable contender in the economic and political arenas of the world and safeguard the future generation, we have to challenge the existing political structure and bring it to an end by uniting, and organizing all Ethiopians at home and abroad.