Dula's Blog

By Metha Obang,

Ethiopians: Let us Prepare Ourselves Before the Peoples’ Revolution to Oust an Ethiopian Dictator Reaches Ethiopia (Part I)
February 5, 2011. For thousands of years, life in Egypt has been greatly sustained and nurtured by the Nile waters coming from the rivers of Ethiopia and beyond; flowing through the beautiful land we all share. The Nile is like the blood of our shared humanity that passes through the veins of every human being; preserving life through generations past, present and future.

Yet, over the last days and weeks, the ingredients for renewed life are coming from Egypt to Ethiopia; as if the great river has reversed its flow and is going upstream to nurture a land where hopes of a better future had dried up. As it flows, the winds are also blowing seeds of change to and fro in the world; some of these seeds will find life in the fertile soils of discontent.

The inspiring message that comes from seeing masses of people stand up with courage and in solidarity as they demand freedom and justice after years of repression will find some of that fertile soil, ready for planting, in Ethiopia; tilled to perfection by the strongman himself—Meles Zenawi—who rightfully fears that Ethiopia will be next.

Like Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, when cornered, Meles—like any other typical dictator—will likely use the “same-old” tactics (see below) both he and others have used before, but to a more intense degree now; especially division, all of which should be publically exposed, especially to the western donors, and immediately countered. We anticipate he will:

1) strengthen his power-base in Ethiopia through “strongman techniques”—bribes, threats, intimidation—harshly clamping down further on democratic and civil rights
2) close down communication lines further; particularly the Internet, social media and outside sources of radio and TV broadcasts like the VOA, Deutshe Welle or ESAT
3) lobby himself and his regime in the international community by falsely claiming they are the only ones capable of maintaining stability and fighting terrorism; particularly should new threats emerge from these uprisings in Egypt, Yemen and beyond, despite many gifted, capable and moderate Ethiopians from diverse groups who are committed to stability and security in the country
4) loot Ethiopian assets and resources (particularly land and mineral rights) at an accelerated pace, while he can still do it; stashing investments and profits in foreign banks and companies
5) Play the ethnic card through new campaigns of propaganda and government sponsored ethnic attacks and/or events meant to:
a. create fear among Tigrayans like he did in 2005; claiming that allegiance to him is their only option for security
b. spread propaganda to Oromos and minority groups that the Amhara are coming to dominate
c. incite conflict or government-sponsored violence; including where there is peaceful protest, in order to justify draconian counter measures against the people

The irony is that if Meles takes such steps to prevent an uprising of the people, he may find he is simply better preparing the soil for a broad-based, massive peoples’ movement. His actions may all backfire, making the people more determined than ever to resist.
What Meles does not understand is that Ethiopians want a NEW ETHIOPIA that has room for all its beautiful and diverse people; not the Ethiopia of Menelik, Haile Selassie, Mengistu or his own ethnic-based apartheid government of the TPLF, which has not only ruled with an iron hand, but has poisoned Ethiopian society by promoting ethnic-based hatred, division and alienation among the people. This has included an attempt to isolate his own ethnic group from the mainstream through favoritism, isolation, scare tactics and repressive measures against dissenters in an attempt to maintain their support; however, much of this support is superficial and will disappear once the people rise up and demand the end of any ethnic-based governments. Only then will Ethiopians live in greater peace for “no one will be free until all are free.”
With this in mind, and as we receive reports of great discontent in Ethiopia, we believe it is only a matter of time before there is a peoples’ movement in the country that rises up to demand freedom, justice, equality and respect for human and civil rights. The SMNE is not in a position to make that call—for it will come organically from within Ethiopia—but instead, the SMNE seeks to give guidance, a manual to all Ethiopians as a whole, for how to help such actions produce a better Ethiopia rather than costly efforts that end up being hijacked, sabotaged or worse yet; become another force of destruction to Ethiopians. Ethiopians have had enough misery, suffering and pain. Periods of change can be for good or for bad; regardless of what we have had before. Honoring God and principles that value all human life should be primary. Greed and thirst for power have no place.
In Part II, we will more directly address seven different groups; giving more specific recommendations for how different sectors of our society might contribute to the overall success of a movement for freedom once the people of Ethiopia rise up.
The following are some suggestions for how we might counter some of Meles’ efforts to block the people. Please do what you can and come up with your own ideas. Here are some:
• Expose Meles; letting others know that Meles is one of the worst dictators in the world—get this information broadcast through the media, social networks, Alejazeera, BBC, CNN, Fox NEWs, bloggers, Tweeters, public radio, faith organizations, human rights organizations and any others who are interested in democratic movements.
• Support others who are also standing up for their universal human and civil rights; letting them know that the people of Ethiopia stand in solidarity with them.
• Ethiopians who are skilled in IT, this is your movement and your time! You are needed. Call us!
• Join one of the active and well-known tweeters to inform them about the brutal dictatorial regime in Ethiopia
• Others.

Please do not hesitate to e-mail your comments to Mr. Obang Metho, Executive Director of the SMNE, at: obang@solidaritymovement.org . You can click at the following link http://www.solidaritymovement.net/index.cfm and filling out the required fields to be adds on our mailing lists or to subscribe or to suggest material for inclusion. For a full archive and other resources, see http://www.solidaritymovement.org/ You can also join us on the Face book page.

Ethiopians can learn from the Egyptian and Tunisian experiences. The foundation for change in Ethiopia is unambigiously present, if the Ethiopian people
can overcome fear. The Ethiopian people have nothing to fear, but fear itself. I recently wrote a piece about dictators. The title was “Dictators are like giant elephants with a feet of clay. Simply, if push them at the right time, they will collapse. Meles will not engage in massacring the people of Ethiopia at this age and time while the world is looking. Consequently, if the Ethiopian people get their courage that they had shown with past common enemies like the Italians and others, their victory against their current oppressor is inevitable. Please enjoy the following video.

By Ethioguardian

The United States of America today accused the Ethiopian government of favoring one ethnicity in appointing government positions. Mr. Douglas M. Griffiths, USA representative in the United Nations Human Rights Council, stated that: “Independent observers have noted…that most senior government positions are overwhelmingly represented by one ethnicity”, and recommended Ethiopia to examine and adjust the ethnic balance in government positions as the Ethiopian governments policy of Ethnic Federalism promotes. The Vatican also emphasized on the importance of a more equitable power sharing. Watch The Video (Use RealPlayer)

USA Mr. Douglas M. Griffiths English
Holy See (The Vatican) Mr. Hubertus Matheus Van Megen

Over 50 countries forwarded questions and recommendations to the government of Ethiopia in the Universal Periodic Review, the human rights exam of the United Nations, held in Geneva today.

In response to the American criticism the Head of the Ethiopian delegation, H.E. Mr. Fisseha Yimer, Special Adviser to the Minister at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, classified the accusation as “speculation”, “off the mark” and “wrong”. He promised the countries interested in this issue to come up with proof of the opposite.

Many participants asked questions about the infamous Charities and Societies Proclamation, The Mass Media Law and Anti terrorism Law, restrictive legislations, which are widely condemned by donors and international human rights groups.
In his introductory statement Mr. Yimer indicated that the Ethiopian population misunderstands international human rights norms, which makes it difficult for the government to implement international human rights standards in the Ethiopian society. This shows how the Ethiopian regime underestimates its own people. Knowing the amount of political prisoners, media repression and reports of violations of human rights at the moment, the Ethiopian delegation tried to cover up the dictatorial nature of the regime.

Answering questions from France on the 2005 election and its bloody aftermath, Mr. Yimer said that it was a past issue and that the outcome of the national inquiry was satisfactory. Many members of the opposition fled the country in 2005, including some members of the inquiry commission, after being harassed by Ethiopian government forces. Harassment on opposition and media freedom, raised by Australia, made Mr. Yimer laugh out loud and say: “There is no harassment!”.

Questions about the case of Birtukan Mideksa, the imprisoned leader of Ethiopia’s main opposition party, were completely ignored by the Ethiopian delegation.

Most of the countries asked access to detention centers and visits of special rapporteurs, individuals working on behalf of the United Nations who bear a specific mandate from the UN Human Rights Council, to investigate issues on arbitrary detention, extrajudicial executions, torture etcetera. In the past years, the Ethiopian government was requested to grant access to these special rapporteurs, requests which have not been granted so far. Mr.Yimer, the head of the delegation, answered saying this was not possible due to the limited capacity of the country.

The grave human rights violations committed by Ethiopian government military forces in the Somali region (Ogaden), described by Human Right Watch as genocide, were also raised by, mainly Western, countries. Mr.Yimer ignored answering these questions.
Unsurprisingly, countries benefiting from Ethiopia’s recourses, such as India and China, and most African countries, were mostly praising the Ethiopian regime for their achievements on the Millennium Development Goals and Social, Economic and Cultural Rights.

Guerilla Economics  – Hard to Understand

Dictator Meles and former Marxist guerilla leader may be providing western media including Bloomberg with bogus economic data. Recently, Bloomberg compared Ethiopia with the BRIC nations(Brazil, Russia, India and China) as possessing one of the fastest growing economies.  Given the current institutional constraints, such as  government control of the major means of production,  including housing stocks, all land, Internet etc. , it will be highly improbable if not impossible for the Ethiopian economy to enjoy the same growth like the BRIC nations. Unlike China or India, direct investment in Ethiopia is limited by the Ethiopian Diaspora or foreigners because of the high risk the country poses due to the lack of rule of law, which is manifested in the need sometimes to pay protection money to government agents and  often to members of Meles tribe.

Claims that the Ethiopian economy will grow  10-14.5% per annum in the next five years , much higher than the achievement of the BRIC nations  is highly improbable  for a country like Ethiopia. There are many reasons why the Ethiopian economy cannot enjoy similar or faster growth than the BRICs, because the current regime denies Ethiopians access to technology, voluntarily made Ethiopia land locked,  and provides no property rights or rule of law to protect  investors.  These factors discourage Ethiopia from achieving rapid economic growth. Of course, the injunction of ethnocentrism also causes the misallocation of resources and inhibits the free flow  of capital to its efficient destination with in Ethiopia.

BRIC nations can brag for growing their economies  with demonstrable benefits to their citizens such as job growth and  capital formation,  instead of imposing  price control and throwing business owners to jail as is the case in Ethiopia.  This is what some call truly dictatorial economics, where the ruler controls everything; land, Internet, cell phone, etc. , but assigns blame when the economy starts to stumble.

Dictator Meles claims that the Ethiopian economy will double in 5 years, that would require the economy to grow at or above 14.5% a year with zero inflation or if one were to include the current inflation level, the economy has to grow by 29% per annum, an economic feat never achieved before.   

For the last 20 years  Meles promised  free and fair election to appease international donors and to bring hope to the suffering people of Ethiopia, but when people voted to oust him in past elections, he used bullets to silence them.  So his economic projection of doubling the economy in the next five years may be another way  to prolong his rule with a false promise.  For the last 20 years, the Ethiopian economy grew on average  3.6%, significantly lower than other developing countries.

 Currently, Ethiopians are going through a severe economic situation, as in the past,  Meles is blaming the business community instead of his own wrongheaded policy, this includes the balkanization of Ethiopia,  lack of property rights, lack of access to technology, lack of transparency, and rule by an ethnic minority that also raises the risk premium against any investment in Ethiopia.

Meles’ attempt to control inflation using price control misses the point. The price control strategy as witnessed in the U.S. in the 70’s under president Nixon does not work.  Now the regime is engaged in the blame game with its faltering economy. The government is lashing out on defenseless businesses by taking their property and throwing them in to the dungeon. Hardly a solution to a seriously flawed economic policy pursued for the last 20 years  with state control of the vital organs of the economy and printing money, which is the primary cause of inflation in the absence of real economic growth and productivity.

Retired opposition leader and former World Bank director, Bulcha Demeksa described recent government price control measures as “classical dictatorial” response to a failed economic policy.

Meles has refused to do the obvious despite the advise of the international community and sometimes of his own advisors, free the economy from the shackles of state control and establish  property rights and the rule of law.

In many economies, the government sector is one of the smallest and the least contributor to economic growth. The Marxist regime believes otherwise.

The Ethiopian people should stop buying  government  propaganda such as blaming businesses instead of the economic policy  promoted by Meles, which is driving prices and misallocating resources.

Ethiopian businesses and consumers need to rally against the farce and dictatorial economy of Meles and his ploy to  blame others instead of his failed and flawed economic policy to avoid unnecessary bloodshed and conflicts among Ethiopians.  It is also well known that  Ethiopians continue to suffer  drowning in the Indian Ocean or getting killed in refugee camps fleeing this draconian dictatorship.

 The current regime, besides denying the Ethiopian people their basic human rights, may also denying them the opportunity to create a viable economic system for current and  future generations to come.  What is going on in Ethiopia under the current dictatorship some argue being equivalent to undeclared war on liberty and the very survival of the Ethiopian people and the Ethiopian nation.

Dula Abdu, a real estate and investment consultant and a former banker, and adjunct professor of economics.  He can be reached at dula06@gmail.com or www.ethiodemocrat.org

This website is dedicated to promoting democracy and rule of law in Ethiopia, which has been lacking for centuries. It is about time  for change. Can you be a change agent and join Ethiodemocrat.

In my recent article, I wrote about Dictators are like giants with a feet of clay, and if you put enough pressure they will collapse. In Ethiopia, that could happend if we do our part.

To read one of my most recent articles, please click here: http://www.ethiomedia.com/above/2005.html