There should be a silver lining to the AGOA situation. Ethiopia can move from manufacturing to a high-tech country for more sustainable development. When France refused to sell planes and parts to Israel during the Six-Day War, Israel immediately opted to build its airplanes and technology not to be hostage again. Consequently, with a population of 9 million, Israel is a powerhouse of technology and one of the strongest economies in the Middle East.

Industrial Parks are not sustainable solutions
Industrial parks, as they are set up now, are transients. They are temporary solutions to unemployment. Ethiopia uses cheap labor to attract companies to establish cloth and textile-driven manufacturing plants. Manufacturing plants based on labor alone are transient and do not provide good or living wages or sustainable solutions; like rivers; they flow in one direction with cheap labor. Most of the manufacturing plants moved from China, Bangladesh, and other regions to take advantage of cheap labor in Ethiopia. I am sure they will move whenever such an opportunity arises anywhere else. The life expectancy of industrial parks can be cut short and leave people without Jobs and the area with environmental damages. Of course, the suggestion is not to dismantle such plants immediately but to transition to a long and lasting solution to Ethiopia’s economic woes.

 Ethiopia can be like Israel, China, and other Asian tigers in 10-15 years by planting the seeds for sustainable development bolstered by technology. Turning Industrial Parks into technology parks or hubs by fostering and promoting innovation for technology, where a high density of startup companies, engineers, and other innovators cluster together to produce goods and services driven by markets can be the solution. Besides technology parks, universities and cities can provide co-working spaces for technology hubs and incubators with funds supplied by diaspora, private companies, and the government for equity interest or loans. Alternatively, the Ethiopian government can issue bonds to sell to the diaspora or the diaspora can set up their own venture capital to fund these projects.

Moving to the Fourth Industrial Revolution is the Solution

 To catch up with the rest of the world, Ethiopia needs to leap to the fourth Industrial Revolution that focuses on robotics, AI, nanotechnology, blockchain, biotechnology, the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, 3D printing, and others without totally discounting manufacturing. The government should prioritize the introduction of the Fourth Industrial Revolution by opening up Internet access, broadband, and Research and Development in these areas.

To grow the economy, the current government is promoting manufacturing by inviting companies from China, Turkey, India, and others by enticing them with low wages and tax breaks. Dr. Abiy should prioritize direct foreign investment in high technology transfer jobs rather than low-wage manufacturing to provide a platform for sustainable economic development.

The typical trajectory of moving from agriculture to manufacturing is no more an option for Ethiopia. Because of TPLF’s fear of social media and denial of access to technology, Ethiopia failed to enjoy the full benefit of the digital revolution. Given this failure, Ethiopia has no time to go through these stages and catch up with the rest of the world technologically and economically. Jumping to the Fourth Industrial Revolution will accelerate its economic and technological development, save it from future famine, ecological damage emanating from manufacturing, and massive economic disruption that arises in manufacturing phase-out.

Manufacturing undertaken by Chinese and other companies will not save Ethiopia from its permanent third-rated status or fill empty stomachs. Huajian is one of the most celebrated Chinese Companies with over 5000 employees. According to AP “Amazing China” (May 2, 2018), Ebissa Gari, a 22-year-old employee of Huajian, earns 966 Birr ($35) a month. The average worker at Huajian factory earns $50 a month. According to Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research, a basic living wage was about 3000 Birr or ($109) a month in Ethiopia. On the other hand, Artificial Intelligence (AI) specialists with little or no industry experience can make between $300,000 and $500,000 a year in salary and stock. “Top names can receive compensation packages that extend into the millions” (NYT, April 19, 2018).

The increased productivity, efficiency, lower operating costs, and high wages are a product of access to technology. The Heritage Foundation recently reported that not all Ethiopians had enjoyed economic growth evenly. It argued that more economic freedom is needed to grow the economy and reduce civil strife.

Ethiopia will need 177 years to catch up with the U.S

Given the economy and the state of technology, Ethiopia is pre-industrial, where Britain was in the 1840s. Unless Ethiopia skips some steps, it will need hundreds (100) of years to catch up. Of course, this assumes the rest of the world will stand still and wait for Ethiopia. For example, at a reasonable growth rate of 5%, Ethiopia will need 177 years to catch up with the U.S. growing at an average of 2.5% holding everything constant. At a 10% rate, it will take 60.5 years. The calculation is derived using a per capita of $50,000 for the U.S and $700 for Ethiopia.

Technology has the potential to be a tremendous tool in advancing the well-being of humankind by improving the quality of life and lifting the standard of living. Leveraging technology allows us to work from anywhere and enhances productivity. The progress of the industrial revolution from the steam engine, electric power, and digital and information technology is the foundation for the fourth industrial revolution.

 Over 80% of the jobs will be AI and IT-driven in the next two decades.

Artificial intelligence will be pervasive based on autonomous products, from cars to robots. Over 80% of the jobs will be AI and IT-driven in the next two decades. AI will increasingly take over mundane tasks to the most sophisticated, including fabrication, surgery, and ground and space warfare.

 Ethiopia is 120th out of 139 countries in the Network Readiness Index (NRI)

According to Global Information Technology 2016, Ethiopia is 120th out of 139 countries in the Network Readiness Index (NRI), which measures access to the latest technologies to individuals, businesses, and government, ease of starting a business, the efficiency of the legal system, infrastructure, capacity for innovation and more. Ethiopia’s ranking could have been much better had it not been for TPLF’s fear of technology and lack of interest in advancing Ethiopia’s technological and digital capability.

Leveraging technology underpinning the Fourth Industrial Revolution will create a solid and sustainable economic foundation. The people who generate the wealth (the next Apple, Google, etc.), the carpenters, the risk-takers, and inventors should be appreciated much more than talking heads or politicians. After all, the hard-working and creative Ethiopians with strong work ethics will be the catalyst to propel Ethiopia to be an economic and technical juggernaut.

The technology revolution is taking place at a breakneck speed led by Artificial intelligence, the Internet of things, the cloud, and 3D printing. Ethiopians need to demand unfettered access to technology and the internet as a right for their survival and to avoid future famines.

Dr. Abiy needs to leapfrog Ethiopia to the fourth Industrial Revolution and unleash innovation to create a better future for Ethiopia. If he does not leverage the technology revolution, grow the economy with open competition, transparency, property rights, and unfettered access to technology and the internet, he will leave Ethiopia with a distressed economy and more hungry and angry people.

Dula Abdu, a retired banker, economist and is the founder of a non-profit that promotes access to technology to underserved communities. Currently supports underserved schools in the US and in Ethiopia by providing a STEM-based educational database that works without the internet. The article was adapted from a previous article entitled “Ethiopia needs to leapfrog to the Fourth Industrial Revolution.”

Former U.S. ambassadors to Ethiopia and some Western institutions are lambasting Ethiopia based on information gleaned from social media or their contacts, enlisted during the last three decades of TPLF rule, an ethnic cabal famous for silencing the opposition, disinformation and dazzling Westerners.

Critics of the current reformist government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia are responsible  for propagating misinformation, creating an impression of a monster regime bent on abusing its citizens in Tigray by serving as a conduit for the TPLF, which created the current unstable and conflict-laden environment in the country, not only by firing the first shots at the various military barracks in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia , but also by establishing ethnic federalism that has been the main source of ethnic conflicts and of displacement of millions of people around the country.

Western Critics use Unreliable Sources and engage in Exaggerated Narratives

One of the major problems with Westerners is their failure to differentiate between the people of Tigray, and the TPLF Junta, which was an “equal opportunity oppressor” of the people of Tigray and Ethiopia. Most of the critics of Dr. Abiy are members of the junta, as well as friends and beneficiaries. If the Junta really cared, millions of people in Tigray would not have remained dependent on international food aid to this day.

Furthermore, crying foul by external critics and internal detractors of PM Ahmed over the presence of Eritrean troops is a clear illustration of a double standard. The U.S. or its Ambassadors to Ethiopia, for example, never complained when Ethiopians troops went to Somalia to fight Al Shebab at the behest of America and other Western countries, or found fault with the U.S. presence in Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq, S. Korea, Japan, or Europe.

Eritrea Saved the Horn from Imploding with Chaos

If Eritrea is present in the northern region of Tigray at the invitation of Ethiopia, there is no reason to deride Eritrea based on unproven Twitter and social media allegations of misconduct. If it were not for Eritrea, Ethiopia and the whole Horn of Africa might have imploded with violence and social upheaval. Besides warning Sudan and Egypt not to take advantage of Ethiopia while at war with a rebellious regional government in the north (Tigray), Eritrea enabled Ethiopia to end the conflict in a matter of weeks by allowing Ethiopian troops to retreat and regroup in Eritrea.

From all indications, it is clear that there is an organized effort to distort facts and portray Ethiopia in a negative image, to the extent of branding it as an aggressor or provocateur of war in the media. This is true even in the eyes of some members of the U.S. Congress. Such a narrative is orchestrated by agents of TPLF and their highly organized PR machine in the U.S. and Europe.

Critics of Ethiopia were Coopted or Hoodwinked by TPLF

Critics like Susan Stigant of USIP charged that Ethiopia may be characterized as a failed state during a congressional testimony last December. But she failed to mention that it is the system, which many of the current critics supported during the 27 years of TPLF’s minority ethnic rule that is responsible for the predicament in which Ethiopia finds itself today. Ms. Stigant and her colleagues failed to condemn such system despite numerous warnings and pleas from the opposition about the danger of creating ethnic federalism in Ethiopia, which the TPLF championed while governing under an ethnic-based oligarchy.

The disinformation about the war in Tigray and Eritrea’s involvement in it is fanned by TPLF social media, critics, and friends of TPLF in the academia, and in some diplomatic circles. For example, BBC apologized to Dr. Abiy Ahmed for falsely accusing him of a plan to bomb civilians in Tigray, based on uncorroborated report.  The Washington Post discovered that TPLF agents took over or monopolized the Twitter traffic with their false narrative portraying Ethiopia as the aggressor and then demanding a ceasefire when TPLF started losing the war. This was also to obfuscate the fact that TPLF initiated the war by killing Ethiopian soldiers, many of them while in sleep at their military posts guarding the international border with neighboring Eritrea, looting their equipment, and forcing the rest to flee naked to Eritrea.

TPLF PR and Money Spread Disinformation

The TPLF Junta ruled the country for 27 years by using a strategy of silencing the Ethiopian Diaspora and muzzling the domestic opposition from revealing its criminal enterprise, which included stealing from Ethiopia billions, and disproportionately controlling the military and commerce, and other parastatals, as well as powerful state agencies. Consequently, most of the billionaires and millionaires in Ethiopia today are Tigrayans, though they constitute only 6% of the population.

Many intellectuals and government representatives, such as Tony Blair of Great Britain, former U.S. President Jimmy Carter, Nobel Laureates, and others were victims of a highly organized PR propaganda that prevented them from acknowledging the plight of the Ethiopian people as they were fed with distorted narratives. To show their power, recently TPLF agents supposedly garnered over 2300 signatures from “who’s who” in academia and other professions around the world in less than a week to sign in support of TPLF narratives, leading some political pundits  in Europe and the USA to demand Ethiopia to stop defending itself; EU suspended aid to Ethiopians a result. One wonders what Ethiopia would have looked like if TPLF’s coup attempt succeeded.

Should Ethiopian Soldiers Have Surrendered to TPLF?

As a historical illustration, the American Civil War was started when Southern rebels attacked federal forces. Would a reasonable person ever expect Lincoln to acquiesce to the confederate takeover, slavery, or the breakup of the Union? Some countries including the U.S. engage in preemptive attacks against an enemy because of perceived threat or fear without the other party firing one single shot. However, Ethiopia was blamed for responding in a proportionate and calculated manner while protecting civilians and historical sites, and for coming to the rescue of its soldiers.

Another illustration is the recent attack on Capitol Hill by white nationalists and supporters of former President Trump, which was condemned universally, but none of you condemned the TPLF attack using thanks, rockets, and machine guns to slaughter Ethiopian soldiers while asleep, or even the most recent Sudanese invasion of Ethiopian territory for that matter.

In an interview with BBC, US Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Tibor Nagy, had corroborated that Ethiopia was attacked, its soldiers were killed, and its military hardware looted. We believe most of your colleagues have access to the same information as that of the diplomat. The false narrative focusing on Ethiopia and Eritrea without mentioning this egregious TPLF heinous crime against Ethiopian soldiers is demonstrably biased and unforgiveable. To attack a poor country like Ethiopia, USIP,  CSIS and other U.S. agencies are often fooled by propaganda hatched and disseminated by agents of the former regime. For many Ethiopians, TPLF was the worst regime ever came to power in Ethiopia, and some even compare it to Khmer Rouge and other notorious regimes around the world. TPLF posed a mortal danger to the survival of Ethiopia as a state and brought untold misery and agony on the Ethiopian people without the world ever realizing it.

TPLF Left Ethiopia Ungovernable and Unlivable

I argue that the TPLF regime and the ethnic federalism it created, which some of you fervently supported, made Ethiopia unstable, unlivable, ungovernable, and difficult to live in, to trade or travel for the majority of Ethiopians due to the ethnic animosity the system created.

Ethiopians are deeply dismayed about the Western media and the disinformation campaign they are waging against Ethiopia by relying on opinions of so-called regional experts, who have very limited knowledge about the complexities of politics, economics, and history of the Horn of Africa. For instance, Alex De Waal, a British national at Tuft’s university, memorialized Seyoum Mesfin, the politburo   member and foreign minister of TPLF and the architect of the coup.  Martin Plaut, another former BBC correspondent, reported, “The Ethiopian government stole the Ark of Covenant from Axum and executed 750 priests in front of the church.” This false statement could only have come from the most zealous supporter of the TPLF, not a professional journalist who reports for one of the most renowned foreign news agencies. As a longtime observer of Ethiopian politics, I know these statements are not based on facts but on fabricated, partisan accounts that normally originate from agents of the TPLF. I also suggest in the strongest terms possible that you read the distorted reporting of the Economist, another British magazine’s innuendo alleging that Ethiopia is deliberately starving the people of Tigray to win the war.

Ethiopians Dismayed by Western Critics and Media

Because of these and many negative portrayals of Ethiopia, American citizens of Ethiopian descent here in the states feel that our country of origin is becoming the “punching bag” of the Western media. We feel that Ethiopia is not getting a fair treatment by Western media and so-called Ethiopian experts of foreign backgrounds. Of course, TPLF built a huge PR machine, a strong relationship in the media and other important places during the last 30-40 years using stolen funds from the country and was able to stifle the voices of the opposition. As a result, we are very concerned about the continuous distortion of facts, disinformation, and the appearance of a double standard used against Ethiopia. We regard USIP, CSIP, and former American Ambassadors to Ethiopia as allies only if they take the time to check all the facts on the ground and not be swayed by disinformation and past personal relationships that they built with some members of the criminal TPLF regime.

Social media-driven misinformation against vaccination, election, and other issues are causing considerable discord and fear in America; however, the impact of disinformation on Ethiopia could be very destabilizing and catastrophic. In a country with more schism because of the country’s constitution that is gerrymandering ethnic groups into enclaves, it is easy to drop a match to burn the whole country.

In 2018, a glimpse of hope for democracy and unity rose above the Ethiopian horizon, with the election of Dr. Abiy Ahmed, who quickly went to work to correct the wrongs of TPLF.  He immediately established peace with Eritrea, released thousands of political prisoners, and invited opposition parties in exile to join him in transforming the country. Unfortunately, this did not go well with Tigray Peoples Liberation Front or TPLF, so they fled to Tigray, the province they represented.  On the morning of November 3, 2020, TPLF forces attacked Ethiopian troops while asleep, killed thousands, and took more prisoners to overthrow the Abiy government. UN:TPLF’s pre-emptive strike started the war.

TPLF Ruled as an Ethnic Cabal

TPLF ruled Ethiopia with an iron fist for 27 years. They designed and implemented various tactics to destroy Ethiopia’s social fabric and national identity, including denigrating its former leaders and history. close to what Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia. Unlike the Khmer Rouge, TPLF operated as an ethnic cabal, controlling every aspect of the government, army, economy, and foreign policy establishments, even though TPLF accounted for only 6% of the population. Many government officials became billionaires and millionaires by embezzling while Ethiopians starved. TPLF family members and loyalists took advantage of government-funded scholarships at home and abroad, thus becoming the country’s wealthiest and the best educated. They called all the shots.  Nothing happened without their approval, whether opening a business, hiring, firing or even enforcing the law. In effect, they were the judge, jury, and executioners.

Foreign Media is Being Hoodwinked

Boko Haram victims were placed in Axum, and the photograph was shared with Amnesty International and BBC; unfortunately, both published this false report Click here to read more.

While any atrocities should be condemned and independently investigated, there are indications TPLF supporters are going beyond reporting such atrocities but fabricating. Pictures of Boko Haram victims in Nigeria are photo-shopped with a caption to make them appear victims in Tigray and sent to social media, to CNN, BBC, Amnesty International, and other organizations.

Michael Berhe aka Woldemariam, an imposter orthodox priest, falsely claimed he was in Axum to witness a massacre. He is lives in Boston, and he is a catholicMicheal Berhe Video.

A former TPLF soldier named Mona Liza told  BBC and Aljazeera that she was attacked by Eritrean soldiers but was wounded in combat with Ethiopian soldiers in the Raya zone, according to her father. TPLF supporters show a picture of a plane shot down in Ukraine as evidence of TPLF’s success in downing the Ethiopian plane BBC -on Fake News. Michael Berhe living in Boston, claims he witnessed a massacre in Axum and sends out a video that is picked up by BBC and Amnesty International. These and some real atrocities have generated a massive backlash against the Ethiopian government, which claims it is only engaged in law enforcement operations after a coup attempt, not attacking civilians. Worse supporters of the TPLF, such as Martin Plaut and Alex De Waal, and other friends are engaged in fabrications. For example, Martin Plaut tweeted on January 9, 2021, stating that 750 individuals and priests were taken out of the church and massacred to steal the Ark of the Covenant from the Axum Zion Church. The church denied all of his allegations. Alex De Waal claimed that the Ethiopian government is deliberately starving Tigray’s people, despite the government spending billions in meeting this need. One other ridiculous lie was a post claiming that the U.S. is going to Bomb Ethiopia: Click here to read.

Martin Plaut falsely alleged Ethiopia massacred 750 people to steal the Ark of the Covenant.

TPLF supporters mastered the art of fabricating stories through their domestic and foreign surrogates and supporters (Lawrence Freeman-Disinformation Campaign by TPLF). So far, the Ethiopian government is not responding to or countering these allegations, and the media is not doing an excellent job in investigating or checking TPLF sources or informants. Most of their sources are setups or TPLF soldiers who fled to Sudan as refugees. TPLF supporters are banging on the doors of Congress, the White House, and the UN to sanction Ethiopia, often based on unsubstantiated charges. Martin Plaut caught teaching according to the attached video https://youtu.be/LKlDCoosMfM?t=200 TPLF supporters how to fool the western media by creating plausible or fabricated videos and documentaries about Ethiopia. He said most media outlets are hungry for news about Ethiopia, especially VOA and BBC Amharic services.  In the same idea, Dr.  Natalia Vasquez, an Eritrean government critique shares her finding where TPLF forced Eritrean refugees to dress like Eritrean troops and forced them to slash the breasts of innocent women. The purpose was to ascribe the blame to Eritrean troops. Please note the video is mostly in Amharic.

Weaponizing Disinformation to Punish Ethiopia

TPLF is weaponizing disinformation to shame and charge Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers with a massacre, with a crime against humanity, genocide, ethnic cleansing, and more without corroboration. Furthermore, they are appealing to the international community to impose economic sanctions on Ethiopia. This does not mean that combatants from either side or both sides don’t commit such crimes, but the fabrication makes it difficult for the truth to be told.

Unfortunately, TPLF may have mastered the art of disinformation. At first, they targeted Eritreans, now Ethiopia. Daily, TPLF is sharing with BBC and others unbelievable crime videos involving Ethiopian troops. Here is another storytelling how TPLF fabricates:  Refugees forced to dress up as Eritrean troops to make a false documentary

In one episode, you see Ethiopian soldiers digging a grave and throwing TPLF soldiers and shooting them inside the tomb, and one of the soldiers is heard saying, don’t waste no more than one bullet for each. Ethiopian soldiers are not monolotic, each unit and division is represented by various ethnic groups. So there is likely Tigrayan officers who not let such atrocities take place and for one 

In another location, Ethiopian soldiers are seen shooting civilians and throwing them over the cliff. Ethiopian soldiers record all these and share them with TPLF and to the media. Both videos start and stop as if they have been put together in a studio.

This criminal act is unbelievable that any soldier with the right mind, let alone a professional soldier, will commit such crimes against their own people and share them with the media. The conclusion is that TPLF is concocting and fabricating these videos to shame Ethiopia and to seek UN and US intervention, and put economic sanctions.

Massacre of Ethiopian Soldiers / Waging a Coup d’état

TPLF staged an unsuccessful coup, resulting in thousands of Ethiopian troops’ death and the looting of Ethiopia’s military equipment. Due to the war with Eritrea from 1988-2000, most Ethiopian forces and equipment were located in Tigray. Many Ethiopian soldiers were killed while asleep, and others were shot after they refused to join the coup d’état. Those who survived and fled narrated their predicament with tears, describing the horror as betrayal, humiliation, and being condemned to death at the hands of their comrades or fellow Ethiopians who happened to be from a different ethnic group. To isolate the soldiers and finish them off, TPLF disabled all communication networks, forcing surviving units to defend themselves during 8-12 days without food, water, or any supplies.

Impact of the conflict

Now the conflict has resulted in making an already precarious life more portentous. Close to two million people in Tigray were already reliant on international aid. Locusts wiped some of the crops, and most of the remaining harvest was disrupted because of the war. The six million people living in Tigray are in danger of starving because of the conflict. The blame for this tragedy should lie squarely on the TPLF that created the condition for both the war and oppressive and corruption-riddled governance for 27 years.

TPLF’s Seasoned PR Machine

The current Ethiopian government being new, does not yet have the sophistication to articulate or frame the issues and influence media reports. Consequently, it is being simmered by TPLF’s surrogates, vast networks, highly educated elites, and massive resources. In the past, the PR effort by TPLF has swayed many political luminaries, such as Tony Blair and Jimmy Carter, and academicians to support their oppressive and anti-democratic system without a wince. Now the PR machine is in full display, leveraging social media like Twitter, as exposed by the Washington Post on Twitter War by TPLF Supporter.

As Washington Post reported, TPLF planned the coup well in advance, as evidenced in the Twitter attack that started at the outset of the war and was continuing after that. TPLF knew a coup would be brutal to sell to the international community, so it set up a PR machine to sell it before starting the war. TPLF supporters monopolized the Twitter narrative immediately in the wee hours of the war to shape the agenda in their favor. That continues to this day.

 TPLF Motto was filled with Greed and Arrogance

The majority of Ethiopians detests TPLF’s rule because they thought of themselves as having a God-given right to rule and abuse. There was no mercy and shame in their heart. To achieve such power, they devised ethnic federalism, a divide, and rule system like Apartheid that kept all ethnic groups at bay and to feud against each other. TPLF is still trying to resurrect itself by weaponizing disinformation to absolve itself from its criminal history and extend its rule in northern Ethiopia. Remember, Dr. Abiy, like Abraham Lincoln in 1861, was forced to go to war due to a gruesome attack in the dead of night against Ethiopian forces in 100 locations by a 250,000 strong TPLF army.

Ethiopia is one of the longest surviving African nations, a key partner against terrorism, one of the most significant contributors to the U.N. peacekeeping mission, and the headquarters of the African Union. Western governments should refrain from accepting every TPLF’s disinformation campaign to punish and destabilize a long-standing ally, Ethiopia. Dr. Abiy Ahmed has shown his progressive and transformational vision by freeing political prisoners, opening markets, and promoting peace in the region.  U.S. intervention in many countries, including Iraq, was based on disinformation provided by the like of Curveball or al-Janabi (Read WMD Story).  The Democrats, through TPLF allies, are making a similar mistake in Ethiopia.  Ethiopia lasted for over 3000 years; a betrayal by the Democrats is not going to change that equation or stop Ethiopia from protecting its sovereignty from outside and inside forces. However, the U.S. position will suffer lasting damage in sub-Sahara Africa, and Democrats will pay a heavy price come to the next election in swing states like Georgia, where Ethiopians and Africans can be a factor.

Various indicators suggest that TPLf was in cahoots with anti-Ethiopian forces to restore its hegemony for another 27+ years. Thanks to Eritrea and Ethiopian armed forces, it did not happen. The devastating and horrendous attack on Ethiopian armed forces on November 3, 2020 was planned and executed in consultation with Egypt and Sudan. There is no specific public document yet, but the surprise visit by Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok to Ethiopia on December 13 was to salvage a failing enterprise without realizing that Ethiopia had already destroyed most of TPLF forces.

The agreement TPLF engineered was meant to satisfy Sudan’s claim on land and to address Egyptian concern on the Abay Dam in return for their support of TPLF to reclaim power. Helping TPLF win the war was designed to accommodate both Egyptian and Sudanese demands.

Eritrean involvement in helping Ethiopia became clearer because Eritrea did not want TPLF in Addis again. According to Egyptian and Sudanese calculations, if TPLF can destroy 60-80% of Ethiopian armed forces and equipment that was located in Tigray, Ethiopia’s ability to fight back would be impossible or insignificant. In case, if Ethiopia tries to fight back and the war becomes extended, Egypt and Sudan will come to the aid of TPLF.

Tedros visit to Egypt is a good indication of coordination

Egyptian public and media statements and visit by Tedros Adhanom to Cairo all indicate coordination. Tedros’s visit was to urge Egypt to intervene when TPLF’s so called blitzkrieg (lightning war), as described by Sekuture Getachew did not work and TPLF started to retreat (TPLF Admits Starting the Conflict). Instead of directly intervening, Egypt may have given a nod for Sudan to make a move on Ethiopia’s territory. Egypt is very careful in rushing into a war since June 1967, after Israel stunned Egypt by destroying the entire Egyptian air force on the ground in in a single day. However, if the war has dragged, it was possible for both Egypt and Sudan to enter in some capacity. For the sake of Ethiopia, the swift end of the war has frustrated this plan.

Eritrea saved itself and Ethiopia by helping Ethiopia in some capacity, such as allowing retreating Ethiopian troops to enter and regroup. Whether Eritrea intervened materially or not, Eritrea’s support was pivotal.  We may never know the truth, but without Eritrea’s support Ethiopia’s situation would have been quite different and dreary.

Failure of Intelligence by both Eritrea and Ethiopia 

Failure of Ethiopia and Eritrea to anticipate and abort TPLF’s plot is disturbing and one hopes they learned their lesson now and work to end Sudanese and Egyptian machination. Sudanese move to claim land from Gonder or the Amhara region, while leaving out area controlled by TPLF, shows a clear indication of a coordinated plot. Dr. Abiy took a chance given improved relations under his administration with Sudan and out of urgency to move troops to counter TPLF attacks, leaving the Sudanese border unprotected.

Ethiopians are accustomed to disappointment and frustration. However, the Sudanese invasion and TPLF attacks and betrayal were quite shocking and unexpected.

Diplomacy is critical for both Eritrea and Ethiopia

Hopefully, Ethiopia and Eritrea mend their past differences, build their intelligence network, and work towards building their economy while avoiding an unnecessary war with Sudan. Though the combined forces of Sudan and Egypt pose an existential threat, Ethiopia or Eritrea should not rush into war despite provocations from Sudan and Egypt. Frankly, none of them can afford to go to war at this time. The most potent instrument is enhancing more than ever their diplomatic campaign to expose Sudanese invasion as a violation of international law and garner IGAD, African Union and UN support with utmost urgency.

Given some doubts about the situation in Tigray in terms of possible multiple human rights violations, I am withdrawing all my pieces about the situation until further notice.

Despite my opposition to TPLF, I have great respect and admiration for the people of Tigray for their hard work and spirit of Ethiopiawinet.

So I hope any human rights violation against the people of Tigray stops immediately and without any delay.

When my wife decided to go to Ethiopia with our three kids to see their grandparents despite my reservation, I decided to go on a vacation somewhere else too. I flew to Cuba with my oldest daughter. While I was in Cuba I felt at peace with no fear or concern for our safety, on the other hand, I was worried about the safety of my family in Ethiopia and the safety of the Ethiopian people as a whole.

I had a mixed feeling about Cuba which could be described as a fascination for its revolutionary spirit but disdain for its failure to adopt like the Chinese or Vietnamese to usher a vibrant mixed economy.

Unlike many places that I visited I found the Cuban people especially in Havana color-blind and respectful of foreigners and each other regardless of color or sex. You see women walking by themselves the dead of night without fear despite the absence of police like other major cities.  Street after street I saw Cuban kids; black, mulattos and white playing like any kids with no inkling about their color or gender.

Whether you go to the beaches, parks, clubs or other places the idea that someone is paying attention to you about your pigmentation or gender seems to disappear because you just become a human being. Of course, as a tourist you have to be careful not to be taken advantage of by taxis or anyone else.  Nonetheless, you have no fear of being robbed or attacked.

One of my biggest disappointments when visiting Ethiopia last August was traffic pollution and potholes. In Cuba the roads are wide, clean and I did not see one pothole during my range of travel, which included both cities and the country side like valley of  Viñales. One of the reasons for the smooth traffic could be linked to government control of imports and exorbitant tariffs. This is despite the fact that one of  the dreams of many Cubans is to own a car.

Cuba like Ethiopia is a resource poor country, despite that you don’t see homeless Cuban, beggars, and I am told by many Cubans that no one in Cuba goes to bed hungry.

Despite many interesting aspects about Cuba, its telecom system is terrible and the economy is stagnant instead of growing given Cuba’s highly educated workforce. You see elaborate and eye-catching mansions, buildings and homes unkempt but still being occupied. Just a nice paint or selling some of them to private owners will bring them alive. Since they are government owned it takes a long, long time to address such neglect.

Cuba’s free healthcare and free education system have created an equal and intelligent society. What Cuba needs to do is unleash its massive human capital without destroying its almost color-blind society and highly egalitarian system.

For countries in Africa, they should look to Cuba to embody the mantra of live and let live and coexistence while creating a level playing field for their citizens under a benign free market system.

Despite the history of master and slave legacy, the white, blacks and the mulatto communities in Cuba have integrated to form a cohesive society. They regard the Cuban nationality as their citizenry and don’t identify as ethnic groups.

In Ethiopia, the road that Dr. Abiy chose is the correct way. Partial privatization and lessening ethnic animosity or differences, that was magnified and exploited by TPLF will bring peace economic growth, and prosperity at last. Leveling the playing field for all Ethiopians regardless of their religion or ethnicity and respecting individual rights is the only path to peace.  It also shows that with the right leadership it is possible to overcome ethnic, economic and other challenges and create a peaceful and sustainable economy for all citizens.

Despite Cuba’s some shortcomings, it is wonderful that there is a place that you don’t have to look over your shoulder because of your ethnicity or gender. I hope Ethiopia will move towards an ethnic-blind society while firing its economic engines to address years of economic malaise and neglect to transform itself as leading technological and economic power in Africa. Ethiopians should strive to lift the stigma of being known a country of famine, displacement and ethnic conflicts. Without a doubt, Ethiopia’s failure to build a democratic institution will be catastrophic to all ethnic groups, both small and large. The world is eager to see the cradle of mankind ascend to the mecca of democracy. To get there, Ethiopians should listen to peace makers instead of prophets of hate and ethnic agitators if they want survive and thrive.

Source:Wikipedia