Dula's Blog

The people of Ethiopia face dire economic hardships, compounded by abject poverty, limited access to technology, and ongoing food insecurity, making peace an urgent necessity. According to recent UN findings, nearly 68% of Ethiopians live in poverty and are unable to meet daily sustenance needs. Amid these significant internal challenges, Ethiopia faces the looming threat of conflict with neighboring nations, leaving little room to waste resources on  unnecessary internal conflicts. Today, the call to prioritize national unity and economic resilience over military pursuits has never been more pressing.

The ongoing war in the Amhara region is both unwinnable and unnecessary. The Fanos don’t threaten the Abiy regime if resolved peacefully. What’s needed is not force but dialogue, fair representation, and free elections, which can address long-standing grievances and give voice to all groups in a peaceful, democratic manner. True, certain groups—like the Fano if the conflict is resolved peacefully—might gain representation in parliament. Yet, they would remain in the minority and not pose a significant threat to the sitting government. However, their inclusion would strengthen Ethiopia’s democracy by ensuring that all voices have a place in the governing body. By ending hostilities and pursuing fair elections in the Amhara region, Ethiopia can avoid the destructive path of fragmentation and preserve its unity. How Civil War Starts: A must read

The Pretoria Peace Agreement ended the conflict in Tigray by giving the Tigray people a chance for local governance and electing their representatives. The same opportunity should be given to the Amhara people or region without delay and end the conflict.

If the war continues, Ethiopia risks weakening itself to vulnerability, inviting potential external threats and disintegration. The longer the conflict endures, the more the divisions among Ethiopia’s ethnic groups widen, endangering the country’s stability and sovereignty. The consequences of further fracture could devastate Ethiopia’s economy, security, and social fabric and threaten the survival of the country and millions who depend on every ounce of national resources to improve their lives.

Call to Action: Unite for Peace and Prosperity

We call on all Ethiopians and the international community to stand in solidarity against this unnecessary conflict. Demand an immediate cessation of hostilities in the Amhara region. advocate for free and fair elections that provide all ethnic groups and political factions a voice within Ethiopia’s governance structure. By supporting peaceful dialogue and democracy, we can prevent Ethiopia from being torn apart by war and instead move forward toward an era of unity and economic renewal.

It’s time to reserve the nation’s resources not for warfare but for fostering growth, reducing poverty, and building a stable, self-sustaining Ethiopia. Let Ethiopians work together to end the cycle of conflict and invest in a future that values peace and human dignity for all Ethiopians.

The article “Chocking Ethiopia with Wars and Conflicts” critiques Ethiopia’s ethnic-based governance, costly development projects, and ongoing conflict, urging a shift towards investment in human capital over superficial infrastructure and war. The article calls for the abandonment of ethnic federalism in favor of a merit-based system and for ending internal conflicts. It advocates that redirecting resources towards education, technology, and entrepreneurship could drive sustainable growth and avoid future disputes, creating a united Ethiopia grounded in shared progress rather than ethnic divisions.

 A Call to Prioritize People Over Palaces in Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s path to unity and progress is threatened amid economic struggles and persistent conflicts. An end to costly wars and ethnic federalism is needed to redirect resources toward education, technology, and local enterprise. Imagine a nation where young minds thrive in modern technology hubs, and resources fuel innovation, not war. By prioritizing peace, Ethiopia can escape the cycles of ethnic division and financial strain that have hampered progress.

A Vision for Lasting Change

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has a unique opportunity to reshape Ethiopia’s legacy by addressing the structural divides that fuel these ongoing conflicts. The urgent need for reform can no longer be ignored. Ethiopia’s future hinges on investing in a unified vision, strengthening the rule of law, and fostering an inclusive economy.

In this pivotal moment, Ethiopians should urge the Ethiopian government to:

1. End Internal Conflicts: Redirect military spending to support human development.

2. Promote National Unity: Replace ethnic federalism with a governance model focused on merit and equal opportunity.

3. Invest in People: Direct funds from non-essential construction toward technology, education, and infrastructure to improve daily life.

Ethiopia’s global potential lies in its people, not its monuments. Peace, education, and opportunity will establish a prosperous and unified Ethiopia.

Dr. Abiy is choking out Ethiopia’s oxygen with relentless war, conflicts, tribalism, and unwise economic policies. Forget the controversial deals with Somaliland; the war in the Amara region, building palaces and corridors are draining the nation’s economic lifeblood. Imagine if some of the billions spent on wars, constructing palaces, corridors, and Shegger City were redirected toward education, technology, and entrepreneurship.  Trying to duplicate Dubai in Ethiopia while waging a senseless war, maintaining a centralized economy, and a tribal structure is senseless and reckless. By the way, tribalism does not only lead to civil war, but it also stunts economic growth. How Civil War Starts: A must read

Cruel Evictions: A Humanitarian Crisis in the Making

Even more disturbing than the superficial grandeur of these projects is the heartless demolition of homes and businesses, leaving countless families homeless and destitute. In the name of progress, hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians have been forcibly removed from properties they’ve owned for decades, often without advance notice or adequate compensation. Businesses, some built over generations, have been shuttered overnight, stripping owners of their livelihoods. Families are left to fend for themselves in the cold, rain, and dark, without shelter or recourse, as their homes are demolished to make way for Shegger City or corridors and other projects. While desirable, urban spaces with roads, boulevards, and glimmering LED lights are hollow in their ability to address Ethiopia’s fundamental challenges.

The human toll of these evictions is devastating. Children, driven out of schools and onto the streets, join their parents in a bleak struggle for survival. In some horrifying cases, homeless children have fallen prey to ravaging hyenas, a grim reminder of how vulnerable these displaced communities have become. Parents weep over the loss of their homes, their businesses, and their dignity as they watch their lives crumble under the weight of bulldozers and indifference. This violent eviction, carried out without proper notice, compensation, or the slightest regard for the welfare of Ethiopian citizens, is nothing short of a gross human rights violation and heartless.

In the shadow of these developments, Ethiopia’s inflation continues to soar, largely driven by unchecked government spending, leaving average citizens struggling to meet their basic needs. Furthermore, the currency reform or building corridors will not solve Ethiopia’s deep-rooted problems fueled by ethnic division, lack of security, corruption, inept and overreaching government, and lack of rule of law.

Bricks or Brains: The True Foundation of Progress

Ethiopia’s future potential lies not in its buildings but in the capabilities of its people. A sustainable economy must be built on innovation, entrepreneurship, and the cultivation of human capital. Unfortunately, Abiy’s administration seems oblivious to building a sound economy. Instead of investing in research, technology incubators or funding startups that could drive the country forward, the government is pouring resources into building more structures. The truth is, skyscrapers alone cannot uplift a nation—what’s needed is a well-educated, innovative workforce. Imagine if the some of the billions spent on constructing palaces, corridors and Shegger city were redirected toward education, technology, and entrepreneurship. Ethiopia could harness the energy and creativity of its vast population to produce world-class scientists, entrepreneurs, and innovators. This shift in focus could create jobs, spur economic growth, and transform Ethiopia from a nation often associated with famine and inflation into a formidable global competitor.

Lessons from History: Skyscrapers Don’t Solve Crises

Consider Ethiopia’s magnificent historical monuments—Axum, Lalibela, Gonder Castle—architectural wonders that reflect the nation’s rich history. But for all their beauty, these structures have done little to address the country’s enduring economic and social struggles. In much the same way, modern-day skyscrapers and new cities will not rescue Ethiopia from its financial and social problems unless they are paired with a clear plan for economic growth, job creation, and stability.

The truth is that Ethiopia, beyond Addis Ababa, remains largely outside the federal government’s control. Ethnic violence and instability make travel and commerce between regions dangerous, while insecurity discourages tourists and investors alike. So, what’s the point of constructing grand new developments if the foundational issues—ethnic division, political instability, and lack of rule of law—remain unresolved?

Prioritizing People Over Palaces

Ethiopia’s true wealth lies not in its buildings but in its people. It’s time for the government to recognize that investing in education, technology, vocational training, and research is the key to unlocking the country’s potential. Imagine Ethiopia as a hub for AI development, with hundreds of technology centers and startups that foster entrepreneurial thinking. With a focus on improving productivity, targeting export markets, and driving innovation, Ethiopia could leap from being a nation struggling with inflation and poverty to a country that competes on the global stage.

Infrastructure is indeed important, but it cannot stand alone. Without a corresponding investment in creating jobs and security, nurturing entrepreneurs, and equipping citizens with the skills needed for a modern economy, even the most grandiose structures will eventually stand empty, mere symbols of missed opportunities, even face the possibility of being destroyed by frustrated citizens.

The Hidden Cost of War: Bleeding the Economy Dry

Beyond the misplaced priorities of façade-building, Ethiopia’s economic troubles are further exacerbated by ongoing conflicts, especially in the Amhara region. War has drained the country’s human and financial resources, diverting much-needed funds that could otherwise support productive sectors of the economy. Instead of fueling education, industry, and innovation, the government is channeling its resources into a destructive cycle of conflict. War doesn’t just take lives—it devastates infrastructure, cripples businesses, and erodes investor confidence. Human capital, which should propel the nation forward, is being lost to battlefields, while the ever-present specter of violence is driving away potential investments.

The consequences of war go beyond the battlefield. They deepen inflation, reduce productivity, and narrow the country’s growth prospects. Ethiopia’s future is being sacrificed for short-term political aims, and without addressing these conflicts, any economic recovery remains out of reach.

The Road Ahead: A Sustainable Vision for Ethiopia

Abiy Ahmed’s vision for Ethiopia could be truly transformative if it focused less on building façades and more on building the country’s human capital. By diverting resources from war, palaces and skyscrapers toward education, innovation, and entrepreneurship, Ethiopia could set itself on a path to real economic transformation. It’s not the buildings that define a nation—it’s its people’s skills, ingenuity, and determination. The sooner the government recognizes this, the sooner Ethiopia can realize its full potential.

The path forward is clear: an end to the cruel destruction of homes and businesses that have rendered millions of Ethiopians homeless and unemployed. This inhumane practice, all in the name of building cities or corridors must stop immediately. Families cannot continue to be torn from their homes, left to face the elements, while the government prioritizes superficial projects over human lives. Ethiopia must also bring an end to the senseless war in the Oromia and Amhara regions, which have drained the nation of its potential and caused untold suffering. For justice, sanity, and economic progress, it is time to prioritize the well-being of Ethiopia’s citizens and build a sound economy that serves its people.

The future of Ethiopia lies not in palaces or corridors but in peace, education, and equal opportunity. It’s time for the government to invest in what truly matters: its people. 

Ethiopia is the origin of humanity, center of great civilization, and one of the longest and independent surviving nations and it will continue despite machination by Egypt, other foreign and domestic enemies.

While the heinous murder of Hachalu Hundessa, Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen and others are tragic and sad, the perpetrator(s) of this criminal act should be brought to justice; however, the conflagration is due to Killil (segregation of people by ethnicity). TPLF, divide and rule system, Ethiopians are transformed into ethnic monsters instead of human beings.

Oromos without a doubt have historical grievances; Oromos like many other ethnic groups were discriminated and oppressed. Now the Oromos are in control of every echelon of government. So, what’s the problem? The problem is some Oromo leaders like Jawar want to be in charge, and they are using the Oromo youth to mastermind a violent change instead of using the ballot, where they are incapable of articulating any sensible solution to alleviate the economic and political problem facing the youth and people in general, except trying to make Ethiopia a slaughterhouse for Oromos and others. Often, they tantalize them to help them become another S. Sudan or Eritrea. Good luck in case it happens. Whatever the driving force, killing innocent people is a high crime in any religion and jurisprudence. The genesis of such behavior among Ethiopians was planted by TPLF in order to marginalize Oromos and others. Unfortunately, some Oromo, Amhara and other leaders conveniently want to forget this fact in order to grab power.

I also stated in the past that “Ethiopia cannot survive as a viable and peaceful nation under a Killil system. It will face more violence and disruption if the system is continued.”

One of the reasons for the current mayhem in Tigre, especially in major cities and towns is primarily due to Killil that made it possible for ethnic militia, and policing.

TPLF was able to build a strong army legally because of the ethnic federalism. Furthermore, the duty of a police officer is public safety irrespective of once religion or ethnicity. The police in in every ethnic enclaves think lives of other Ethiopians don’t matter. Ethiopians are being killed and burned alive for no apparent reason rather than being a different ethnic group. This is simply ethnic cleansing and the police, the police chief, and the mayor should be charged as such, as enablers and collaborators.

Despite being a product of Woyane indoctrination, the people should listen to the voices around the world that say, “Black Lives Matter”, and “All Lives Matter.”  Unfortunately, ethno-nationalist is preaching that other Ethiopian lives don’t matter. Vigilantes roaming around town are able to destroy property, kill and burn innocent people because they are given a free pass, often welcomed or aided and abetted by the local police force.

While we are deeply saddened by the untimely death of Hachalu, Dr. Mekonnen, General Tsige and others, the killers could be from any ethnic group or foreign enemy like Egypt that has been plotting to undertake similar action to thwart the building of the GERD. Unfortunately, any incident can spark an ethnic warfare. Any country or any group can spark such a conflict and destroy Ethiopia.  There is no reason to kill more innocent Oromos, Amhara or others. Thus, there has to be law and order in Ethiopia. If not, enemies of Ethiopia or ethnic agitators can start an ethnic war by simply killing any famous person. Ethiopians should not fall for such bait and get innocent people killed or burned alive by these angry mobs.

Dr. Abiy was warned about this ethnic inferno built by Woyanes and fanned by the likes of ethnonationalists from various sources that can implode anytime.

The ethnic system has to be dismantled and abandoned immediately. A merit system has to take its place. Nobody should be given a preferential treatment because of his or her ethnicity. It has been a major sore point during Meles, even during Haile Selassie.

Tigres, Amharas, Oromos or any group should be able to compete without any preferential treatment. Any preferential treatment for being born an Oromo, Tigre or Amhara should be eliminated. Such a system is anachronistic, unfair, and dangerous.

In the meantime, start training a police force that is professional and diverse, and representing all Ethiopians. Professionally trained Oromos, Amharas, Somalis, and other police officers should be able to work anywhere in Ethiopia. If they are lacking language, they should learn the local language and Amharic.

Dr. Abiy should bite the bullet and bring an end to chaos and Killil that displaced millions and resulted in the loss of so many innocent lives. Otherwise, it will continue to spread further like wildfire with devastating results.

Dr. Abiy inherited this evil and dangerous system; however, failing to take drastic action is an abdication of leadership and courage. Again, time is the essence for him to act decisively if he wants to save Ethiopia and his government.

Furthermore, it might be advisable to create a more economically integrated regional boundaries without any consideration to ethnicity or revert back to the old provincial system. The U.S. and other countries have states or provinces, and they seem to be working fine. Ethiopia should not be an exception to the rule for the wrong reason. In the long run, moving the capital city to a neutral location should be considered to provide better security, better planning, and the potential to reduce congestion.

Tribal based media and parties should be discouraged or banned, or there should be strict guidelines not to incite or promote tribalism, hate, and violence. Instead, they should focus on hard and factual news, besides promoting peace and economic advancement of all Ethiopians. The safest course would be to discourage even make it illegal to form a political party or media based on ethnicity because of their potential to incite further division and bloodshed like they did in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Burma and other places.

I like the theme of “no more apartheid in Ethiopia” it means no more Killel or ethnic enclaves where minorities are suppressed and their human, civil and voting rights are denied. Without destroying Killel, you can’t save and create a peaceful and prosperous Ethiopia.

To kill ethnic divide, a good start could be a move back to provincial designation or to form economically integrated regions where go​verners are elected by the people based on issues where ethnic mongering or playing ethnic politics is prohibited or secondary to other important issues of commonality, Ethiopianism and peace. Furthermore, cities like Adam​a, Dire Dawa, Harrar and others, a mayor elected by the people run it or administer the city on behalf of the residents rather than tribal chief siting anywhere in the world.

Last but not least, federalize the militia immediately after the war. If Abiy can’t do these, he can’t be taken as a serious leader for Ethiopia. ​The indomitable, Hermela Aregawi is promoting Pan-Africanism with the #nomore movement and other venues, it will be unimaginable for Ethiopia to stay in a tribal and apartheid system and still promote Pan-Africanism. It will be a great contradiction and Abiy will be a laughingstock once people find out that he is running a tribal system or Killil , akin to Apartheid if not worse, while espousing pan-Africanism.

As a leader, Dr. Abiy is accountable to the current and future bloodshed despite the fact that he inherited the system from TPLF but failing to take drastic action will eventually erode his leadership and eventually his regime. In a previous blog entitled “Kill Killil” I said “time is the essence to act decisively and immediately to end the impending cloud of anarchy. Act today, as tomorrow may be too late to save lives and the whole country from imploding.” I hope he listens this time, as any time wasted can be catastrophic.

When my wife decided to go to Ethiopia with our three kids to see their grandparents despite my reservation, I decided to go on a vacation somewhere else too. I flew to Cuba with my oldest daughter. While I was in Cuba I felt at peace with no fear or concern for our safety, on the other hand, I was worried about the safety of my family in Ethiopia and the safety of the Ethiopian people as a whole.

I had a mixed feeling about Cuba which could be described as a fascination for its revolutionary spirit but disdain for its failure to adopt like the Chinese or Vietnamese to usher a vibrant mixed economy.

Unlike many places that I visited I found the Cuban people especially in Havana color-blind and respectful of foreigners and each other regardless of color or sex. You see women walking by themselves the dead of night without fear despite the absence of police like other major cities.  Street after street I saw Cuban kids; black, mulattos and white playing like any kids with no inkling about their color or gender.

Whether you go to the beaches, parks, clubs or other places the idea that someone is paying attention to you about your pigmentation or gender seems to disappear because you just become a human being. Of course, as a tourist you have to be careful not to be taken advantage of by taxis or anyone else.  Nonetheless, you have no fear of being robbed or attacked.

One of my biggest disappointments when visiting Ethiopia last August was traffic pollution and potholes. In Cuba the roads are wide, clean and I did not see one pothole during my range of travel, which included both cities and the country side like valley of  Viñales. One of the reasons for the smooth traffic could be linked to government control of imports and exorbitant tariffs. This is despite the fact that one of  the dreams of many Cubans is to own a car.

Cuba like Ethiopia is a resource poor country, despite that you don’t see homeless Cuban, beggars, and I am told by many Cubans that no one in Cuba goes to bed hungry.

Despite many interesting aspects about Cuba, its telecom system is terrible and the economy is stagnant instead of growing given Cuba’s highly educated workforce. You see elaborate and eye-catching mansions, buildings and homes unkempt but still being occupied. Just a nice paint or selling some of them to private owners will bring them alive. Since they are government owned it takes a long, long time to address such neglect.

Cuba’s free healthcare and free education system have created an equal and intelligent society. What Cuba needs to do is unleash its massive human capital without destroying its almost color-blind society and highly egalitarian system.

For countries in Africa, they should look to Cuba to embody the mantra of live and let live and coexistence while creating a level playing field for their citizens under a benign free market system.

Despite the history of master and slave legacy, the white, blacks and the mulatto communities in Cuba have integrated to form a cohesive society. They regard the Cuban nationality as their citizenry and don’t identify as ethnic groups.

In Ethiopia, the road that Dr. Abiy chose is the correct way. Partial privatization and lessening ethnic animosity or differences, that was magnified and exploited by TPLF will bring peace economic growth, and prosperity at last. Leveling the playing field for all Ethiopians regardless of their religion or ethnicity and respecting individual rights is the only path to peace.  It also shows that with the right leadership it is possible to overcome ethnic, economic and other challenges and create a peaceful and sustainable economy for all citizens.

Despite Cuba’s some shortcomings, it is wonderful that there is a place that you don’t have to look over your shoulder because of your ethnicity or gender. I hope Ethiopia will move towards an ethnic-blind society while firing its economic engines to address years of economic malaise and neglect to transform itself as leading technological and economic power in Africa. Ethiopians should strive to lift the stigma of being known a country of famine, displacement and ethnic conflicts. Without a doubt, Ethiopia’s failure to build a democratic institution will be catastrophic to all ethnic groups, both small and large. The world is eager to see the cradle of mankind ascend to the mecca of democracy. To get there, Ethiopians should listen to peace makers instead of prophets of hate and ethnic agitators if they want survive and thrive.

Source:Wikipedia

Ethiopian Muslims, as taxpayers, have the right to use any public facility in Ethiopia. The recent controversy raised by the Ethiopian Orthodox Church through its patriarch Office or other government officials to deny Ethiopian Muslims to use Maskel Square for Grand Ethiopian Iftar or for any other purpose is unwarranted. Maskel Square is just a name, it does not say it belongs to Christians only or to anybody. It will serve the enemies of Ethiopia to divide Ethiopians now among religious divisions. Since a TPLF supporter leads the Orthodox Church or other reactionaries, there should be a severe analysis if this is designed to drive a wedge among Ethiopian Muslims and Christians to serve narrow nationalist or TPLF interest or the actual wishes of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church followers. This denial in Addis may be in line with the philosophy in Axum, where Muslims are not allowed to build a mosque since the beginning of time. 

 After TPLF took over the Orthodox Church, TPLF had its eye on the Muslim leadership. In the process, it tried to pit Muslims against the Orthodox Church, especially against Amharas. However,  through the leadership of Imam Haji Zumakan Jemal of the grand Anwar Mosque, Ethiopian Muslims refused to join TPLF. Consequently, many Muslims were killed and imprisoned, including Imam Zumakan, when TPLF sent armed people to remove the leadership and put its appointed leaders.

The recent controversy could be a scheme by the current Patriarch or others to drive wedges between Christians and Muslims and to serve anti-Ethiopian interests. Furthermore,  this can antagonize Ethiopian Muslims and make them feel like second-class citizens, which was often the case before 1974.

The intervention of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church (EOTC) and statement led by the Patriarch’s Office suggesting that the event be held somewhere else other than Mesqel Square was unfortunate, as this negates the equality of all religions in Ethiopia and equal access to public venues for Muslims. This could be interpreted as EOTC wants to keep its dominance and preferred status and delegate other religions to second-class status or drive a wedge between the two religions.

The Abiy regime has always stayed silent when tragedies happen in Ataye, in Wollega, and elsewhere. It cannot prevent conflicts before they happened because of poor intelligence or intervene with force when they happened. 

I recall the celebration of Irreechaa and other festivals at the Maskel Square/Adebaby. I am not sure if Maskal Square is the proper venue for religious or traditional celebrations. However, what is good for the goose is good for the gander. If it can be used by any religious group or by traditional groups, it would have been fair to allow Muslims to access it. This is a clear indication that there are forces bent backward to destroy Ethiopia by any means necessary, either inflaming ethnic tension or religious differences. 

The Abiy regime has failed so far to curtail these forces either by lack of will, lack of power, or in cahoots with them. Nobody knows, but it looks like, in matters of importance to the nation’s survival, he often goes AWL. 

Despite his flowery rhetoric and reconciliatory speeches, he is driving Ethiopia into the abyss. People have to be cognizant of this fact and make sure Muslims, Christians, and ethnic groups do not fall for this trap. Imam Haji Zumakan Jemal was my uncle, and I was proud of him when he defied Meles Zenawi to collude with him against Christians. He paid a small price; nonetheless, Ethiopia is in a mortal danger than ever before. If a leader cannot comprehend the gravity of such a mistake, such as oppressing or antagonizing almost half of the country’s population in a trivial matter like this is unfortunate. Furthermore,  failure to respond to a TPLF patriarch’s damning press release, allowing Jawar, and others plot to kill Hachalu to start an ethnic war,  allow Asamnew Tsege to plot the assassination of Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen, and allowing TPLF to slaughter Ethiopian soldiers while asleep because of poor intelligence shows lack of wisdom and the foresight and abdication of responsibility. It might be time for new leadership or for a new party or for both.

Ethiopia and Egypt may go to war thanks to Donald Trump. On Friday, October 23, 2020 at news conference, he encouraged and goaded Egypt to bomb the Abay Dam, the largest dam in Africa.

Former Secretary Tillerson described Donald Trump as a moron, now I believe he is not just a moron, but a reckless one too, otherwise, he would not be saying something crazy like encouraging Egypt to bomb the Abay Dam.  Instead of using the U.S. diplomatic channels to find a peaceful solution, he opted to act as a lackey for his favorite dictator probably as a payback for the illegal $10M donation in 2016.

If Egypt heeds his advice, it is likely Ethiopia will blow up the Aswan Dam, and it will be more costly to Egypt (no electricity and millions will perish). Furthermore, Ethiopia has so many unemployed engineers, it can build so many irrigation dams in all tributaries and along the Abay River, there will be no or little water flowing to Egypt.

This may also entail a war between Black Africa and the Arabs, and it will be a continental war, U.S. and Egypt versus Black Africa and the rest of the world.

Ethiopia is only asking an equitable share of the Nile, no more or less. Egypt is not losing any water now or in the future except there might be a chance during the filling period. At that time, Egypt has enough reservoir or water stored on the Aswan Dam to compensate during that period. So there is no ground for war unless Donald Trump sparks it to win an election or payback for the loan in such dangerous fashion.

Ethiopia had many wars with Egypt, some of them lead by  Confederat American generals, but Ethiopia always prevailed. It will prevail again, but Egypt will forever lose it goodwill with Ethiopia and potential any water, as Ethiopia may put many small to medium irrigation dams instead of huge electric dams. If Egypt opts to invade, it will lose and it has to pay to build the dam if they want any water again.

Ethiopia is the origin of humanity, center of great civilization, and one of the longest and independent surviving Black nations, and it will continue despite machination by Egypt, Donald Trump, and others.

At the behest of Egypt, and indirectly Saudi Arabia, the U.S enticed Ethiopia to enter into a discussion on the Great Renaissance Dam that Ethiopia is building on the Abay (Nile) River. Steven Mnuchin, Treasury Secretary, and Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law were assigned to engage in foreign policy, an expertise belonging to the State Department. It looked very suspicious and odd for the two gentlemen to engage in water conflicts and African diplomacy.

Why did Trump choose Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner instead of seasoned diplomats from the State Department to solve a diplomatic and water dispute? Both have no qualifications whatsoever in the technology of building dams, colonial history of Africa, or water conflicts.

Kushner, Trump and Mnuchin are allies of Saudi Arabia and friends of President Sisi. Was the verdict written by Egypt before the arbitration started, as it was announced without an agreement and in the absence of Ethiopia? It smells like the old justice system in Dixie where blacks were picked randomly as murder suspects and thrown into a death row cell before trial or a verdict.

Egypt outwitted Ethiopia, especially Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who has just been in power for less than two years to engage the U.S. without fully understanding the influence of Saudi Arabia and Egypt on the Trump administration. Both can get away with murder as long as Donald Trump is in the White House, like Saudi Arabia did with the murder of journalist Jamall Kashoggi and Egypt with thousands of Egyptian lives.

Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner presented an agreement without consulting Ethiopia that stated any infringement on Egypt’s water consumption from the Nile River is unacceptable. The Arab League followed suit and stated that any infringement against Egypt water quota is a declaration of war on the whole Arab world. Now Ethiopia is facing a confrontation with Egypt backed by the United States and the Arab World.

Now embolden by U.S. and the Arab world, Egypt wants to dictate every aspect of the operation of the dam, otherwise threatening to destroy it and even declare war on Ethiopia. Furthermore, instead of creating a diplomatic and an economic solution to the problem, Egypt is going for a diplomatic and military knockout by isolating Ethiopia.

British colonial treaty signed in 1929 excluded Ethiopia and gave virtual control over the river to Egypt, even though Ethiopia is supply 85% of the water. Another British treaty in 1959 between Sudan and Egypt assigned 55.5 billion cubic meters of the river flow to Egypt and 18.5 to Sudan, but none to Ethiopia or other downstream nations.

It is highly disturbing why Steven Mnuchin or Jared Kushner were engaging in water conflicts or diplomatic issues involving Africa. Most of all Steven Mnuchin or Jared Kushner are not a student of history or colonialism that Egypt is relying to preserve its share of the water coming from Ethiopia. Britain set the ground rule on the usage of the Nile River without consulting any of the upstream countries in favor of Egypt, which was a British colony. Egypt is flexing its political and military power to keep a one sided colonial treaty in force.

Unfortunately, Egypt’s arrogant stand emanates because it has the military and diplomatic advantage over Ethiopia and because of a strong relationship between President Sisi, Donald Trump and support from Saudi Arabia.

Donald Trump’s failure to be a neutral arbitrator may end up causing a big war. Egypt may be tempted to strike the dam with American weapons. Egypt is the largest recipient of America’s aid in Africa despite being a dictatorship. On the other hand, Dr. Abiy is a Nobel Laurette that introduced democracy, free press,   free market, and made peace with Eritrea.

Now his ambitious plan to transition Ethiopia into a democracy will be short lived if he were to engage in war with Egypt because of Donald Trump’s abdication to serve as a neutral arbitrator instead of a hired gun.

This unprecedented involvement of Donald Trump in diplomatic affairs in Africa may lead to a war between Africa and the Arab World.  A war unfortunately none of them can afford.

If the task of arbitration was given to someone versed in diplomacy and history of colonialism in Africa, it could have been avoided. Both Steven Mnuchin and Jared Kushner are real estate gurus not diplomats. Mnuchin got notoriety as “Foreclosure King” during the Great Recession for foreclosing on U.S. homeowners mostly minorities, often profiting on their misfortunes to make millions.

Ethiopia is a very a poor and proud country trying to address urgent economic and energy needs of its growing population, standing around 110 million. It has faced many invasions in the past from Europeans and two major ones from Egypt. If Egypt bombs the dam and make it inoperable, Ethiopia can retaliate. This opens the possibility for Ethiopia to destroy the Aswan dam, as well as divert water using tributaries of the Blue Nile, especially during the summer months. This may force Egypt to invade Ethiopia. As in the past, Egypt will lose the war and the result could be devastating economically to both countries; however, Egypt will lose forever any leverage or ability to dictate to Ethiopia with uncompromising demands.

It will be smart for Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia to open their borders and promote economic integration instead of looking to the West and the Middle East for their survival, which has not paid off so far besides making them client and dependent states.

There is no love lost between Egypt and Ethiopia. For years, Egypt has consistently tried to keep Ethiopia in turmoil and underdeveloped by supporting secessionist groups, supplying arms to invaders such as Somalia during 1977-78 war. In 1993, Egypt orchestrated to make Ethiopia landlocked by supporting the secession of Eritrea with the help of then UN Secretary Boutros-Boutros Ghali, an Egyptian in contravention of U.N Chapter 1 and article 2 that demands respect for the territorial integrity of all of its members. Eritrea’s secession was finalized in six month, while Somaliland, Western Sahara and others have been waiting for decades because of Egypt’s and Boutros Ghali’s desire to harm Ethiopia.

On the other hand, the people of Ethiopia and Egypt have many common bonds. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church and the Egyptian Orthodox Church are both Coptic and follow similar rituals. Many Ethiopian Muslims admired Gamal Abdel Nasser as a great leader of Africa and a champion of the Muslim cause.

The State Department or the Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, Tibor Nagy was not present or invited to the mediation of the three African countries.  It was a fait accompli. The cards were stacked against Ethiopia, which has only wanted to build a dam still supplying 85% of the water for Egypt.

The mediation by the U.S. was a charade primarily aimed at pleasing Egypt and Saudi Arabia.  This is unfortunately a recent pattern of U.S. diplomacy sacrificing one ally to please another with a stronger influence or deeper pockets. A similar scenario was played in conflicts between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Russia and Ukraine and numerous others. Everything is transactional, not grounded on principle or diplomatic norms.

Sadly, Egypt and other Arab governments still maintain a colonial mentality like the Europeans when it comes sub-Sahara Africa. They want to dominate and have a superiority complex. Even now, their pejorative term for all Black people is abd, slave.

Instead of assigning the task to an impartial and honest broker, Donald Trump showed his true transactional spirit and sacrificed Ethiopia to appease friends with deep pockets. This, of course, did not come as a surprise to anyone who had been paying attention to the Trump administration’s policies and alliances in the Middle East. Ethiopia is less valuable in Donald Trump’s transactional world, so it is worthy throwing to the dogs.

According to Tom Campbell, professor of economics at Chapman University, Ethiopia successfully managed to keep outside interference in the negotiation between the parties. It only accepted U.S. mediation thinking that the U.S. was a neutral party and a friend of Ethiopia. What a disappointment?

Approximately 65 percent of Ethiopians do not have reliable electricity. Without electricity, Ethiopia cannot grow its economy and end its recurring famine and abject poverty.

Unless the U.S. changes it blind support for Egypt, this will lead to a war between the Arab world and Sub-Sahara Africa; and Donald Trump will have blood on his hands.