Evil Genius, Dictator Meles of Ethiopia

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 Meles uses brute force at home and a  massive PR machine abroad to crowd out the opposition and to hide his evil empire. Until their fall many evil geniuses like Ivan the Terrible, Pol Pot, Idi Amin, and Leopold II of Belgium exhibited similar behavior.

 Internationally, far too many individuals have become unintentional victim and a party to the Ethiopian untold tragedy. Meles has on his side notables like, Joseph Stiglitz, Paul Krugman, Donald Levine, Dick Army, Nancy Polesi (via Richard Gephardt), Senator James Inhofe and more.

 He has hired who is who in America to parlay  non-existing achievement. He has become  a  modern alchemist, who invents something out of nothing, higher GDP in land of abject poverty and starvation, democracy in land of oppression .

 Meles sounds great on many fronts on prima facie; however, further scrutiny it turns out that he has been a disaster for Ethiopia in many areas: economy, national integrity, national unity, social cohesion, and hope for the new generation.

Unraveling his economic system shows it is built on wrong statistics and baked to control the country by creating an illusion of progress, false nationalism, especially by antagonizing Egypt and Eritrea and by engaging in the construction of the Nile Dam, which is a gigantic misuse of resource that will unravel sooner or later.

Meles’s 20 year rule will leave a huge cleavage of cicatrize of a scar that will never heal from the wedges he promoted, from making Ethiopia landlocked, and from driving the economy into the shades in his attempt to enrich his clan, with little empathy for the rest of Ethiopia.

Despite Meles’ rhetoric about transforming Ethiopia, Ethiopia was found to be one of the failed states following countries like Somalia, Chad, and others.

Meles besides putting or wasting Ethiopia’s meager resources in Tigre in projects that have no investment merits such as Wind Turbine ($220 million Euro), the failed

Tekeze hydroelectric dam ($360 million dollars),  and planned Rails from Djibouti to Mekele,  has nothing to show for his last 20 years of wretched rule. This also vindicates those of us who always stated that he is leading Ethiopia not only to a failed estate, but close to an economic Armageddon (see Voodoo economics..) at http:www.ethiodemocat.com.

The Index published by Foreign Policy magazine and the Fund for Peace found that Ethiopia is critically in danger of becoming a failed estate based on demographic pressure, refugee flows, group grievances, human rights violations, uneven development, economic decline, and the continued deligitimization of Ethiopian nationalism. The most vulnerable states next to Ethiopia are Somalia, Chad, Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Haiti.

None of these countries have such a flamboyant and arrogant leader like Meles, who brags about a fabricated GDP growth data to keep his wretched rule and continued economic decline of the wretched country.

Though Ethiopia is the birth place of humanity and one of the cradles of civilizations, but for the  last four decades, it has been one of the most wretched place on earth with little hope of reversing that scenario given the current leadership of the country.

There is no place on earth who has taken greater abuse by nature and  abuse by dictators like the Ethiopian people. Despite facing major resource constraints as demonstrated by constant famine and drought, in 1991 the country was declared land locked by Meles with the secession of Eritrea, making the country worse off and dependent again on one of its former possessions, now independent state of Djibouti.

There is no one on earth who has taken greater abuse from nature and abuse from dictators like the  Ethiopia people.

With the arrival of Meles,  secessionist and anti-Ethiopian force overwhelmed the national government and took over power, thus misdirecting resources, destroying institutions and promoting ethnic and religious division once a very cohesive nation.

To stifle further the country’s economic growth, Meles decided to create ethnic blocks likes in Apartheid South Africa, thus creating tensions and making commerce almost impossible,  cutting existing trades relations, while Europe was forming the European Union and the U.S. was pushing the North American Free Trade Agreement. In Ethiopia small traders, primarily  Gurages  were massacred and their possession ransacked by ethnic groups aligned with Meles.

To add insult to injury, he confiscated land and denied access to technology for the majority, except in Tigre where Mekele University and Mekele Institute of Technology (MIT) are provided unfettered access and grants.

The advent of Internet and technology as a whole was heralded by some as a panacea to ending not only the economic divide between the have and the have-nots, but also between the developing countries and the developed world. Unfortunately, Ethiopia was left out by design by Meles because Meles was afraid  that technology will be used to organize against him by the majority of Ethiopians as it happened in North Africa and elsewhere.

Ethiopia void of access to technology, void of free market and good leadership is toiling on the brink of economic disaster that will lead to further starvation and famine beyond the current 13 or more million people being fed by World Food Program.

Ethiopia needs an industrial policy that will move it from an agrarian society to a technology driven society. The normal course was from Agriculture, to manufacturing, and industrialization, but with the right leadership, technology makes it possible to move to technological society by skipping all the other steps and create a higher standard of living.

Technology or reengineering has been the most important productivity tools for economic growth, however,  like land it is controlled by the government.  In Ethiopia technology is primarily used for spying on Ethiopians and blocking websites. Access to technology is correlated to a higher standard of living for current and future generation. Government ownership of land, denial of access to technology, being landlocked remain as a major road block to rapid economic growth. Land ownership of the state is not for any altruistic reason, it is primarily to manipulate the political currents and to keep the majority of Ethiopians who rely on agriculture a hostage.

Despite creating these roadblocks, Meles has stated that the Ethiopian economy will grow 11-14.5 % in the next five years. No landlocked country or no country in Africa, especially a country estranged within by lack of free market, lack of access to technology, respect for property rights and human rights or forced into tribal polarization can enjoy such phenomenal economic growth.

According to data provided by Meles to the CIA and World Bank, Ethiopia’s GDP per capita was close $100 in 1991 when Meles starting ruling the country. Now, it is reported to be $900, a nine fold increase which is much better than what China enjoyed in those periods.

China’s growth is driven by manufacturing and education, but in Ethiopia manufacturing has not changed much for the last 20 years. Education has lost ground with the introduction of ethnic education, where the majority of ethnic groups are encouraged or forced to use their own ethnic language without requiring them to learn the official language; a recipe for disintegration of the country.

How does Meles gets away with such statistical abnormality and cruelty. My guess is like other evil geniuses from Pol Pot, Ivan the Terrible, or Idi Amin; it takes time to unravel such evil doers. However, I would like to compare Meles with another evil genius, Leopold II of Belgium who committed murder and looting of the Congo from 1865-1909. Leopold II was the most brutal ruler of Congo, he controlled a country many times the size of Belgium as

his personal domain through his private army, like Meles. Luckily, he was eventually forced to end his evil rule after the conscience of the Western world could not bear it any more.

Dula Abdu writes on economics, finance, and real estate. Currently, runs his own real estate investment company from Texas.

Voodoo Economics Unraveled by the World Bank

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The World Bank unravels Meles’ voodoo economics by declaring it ” unsustainable”. In departing and frank remark, Ken Ohashi, World Bank’s director for Ethiopia, said Ethiopia’s five-year plan is a fantasy ” short of discovering huge oil reserves.” on June 8, 2011 to Bloomberg News.

He asserted that besides unrealistic saving and growth assumptions, the government  domination or monopolization of key industries such as telecommunications, banking,  power generation, are the major road blocks to Ethiopia’s economic growth and viability.

As stated in my February, 2011 article entitled “Guerilla Economics” Meles, the Ethiopian dictator, has been  providing western media including Bloomberg with bogus economic data.  For example,  Bloomberg compared Ethiopia with the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) as possessing one of the fastest growing economies. 

Slick marketing aside, given the current institutional constraints, such as  government ownership of the major means of production and restricted access to technology to Ethiopia’s 83 million people,  it will be highly improbable if not impossible for the Ethiopian economy to enjoy the same growth like the BRIC nations. For example, in China citizens are denied much of their freedom, but their government has been able to provide them with steadily rising standard of living and good education. To the contrary in Ethiopia, lack of  basic freedom is compounded by steadily deteriorating standard of living and poor education, causing a significant proportion of the population to suffer starvation. Insecurity created by the regime, such as lack of property rights, lack of access to technology, and the vagaries of nature are creating a vicious cycle that is starting to spin faster and faster.

 According to Helpage International, an NGO based in UK, ” Food price has trebled in the last three years.”  http://www.helpage.org/search/blogs/?bid=283&keywords=ethiopia. According to the same agency, approximately 1,070 older people surveyed in Addis Abeba  last year,  845 or 79%, said they ate only once or twice a day. Price hike means less food.  Furthermore, The New York Times, May 12, 2011 article confirms  that under Meles  “More than 13 million people in Ethiopia are kept alive by sacks of grain and cans of cooking oil from the United Nations World Food Program.” The paper stated again that the situation is unsustainable and the number of starving people will grow; the number of bags of food needed to keep them alive will grow too.

Of course, there are  other reasons why the Ethiopian economy cannot enjoy similar or faster growth than the BRICs,  besides blocking access to technology, Ethiopian Diaspora remains unwilling to invest its tremendous intellectual and financial capital in Ethiopia because of the government’s ethnic policy, lack of  property right protection and runaway inflation.   Furthermore,  the injunction of ethnocentrism inhibits the free flow  of capital to its efficient destination with in Ethiopia and causes the misallocation of resources.

Despite these problems, Meles claims that the Ethiopian economy will grow  10-14.5% per annum in the next five years, much higher than the BRIC nation,   without even considering lack of the primacy of  the rule of law, property rights, free market economy or Ethiopia’s lack of  free access to the sea for flow of goods and services.

BRIC nations can brag for growing their economies  with demonstrable benefits to their citizens such as job growth and  capital formation,  instead of imposing  price control and throwing business owners to jail as is the case in Ethiopia.  This is what some call truly dictatorial economics, where the ruler controls everything; land, Internet, cell phone, etc. , but assigns blame when the economy starts to stumble.

Meles claims that the Ethiopian economy will double in 5 years, that would require the economy to grow at or above 14.5% a year with zero inflation. However,  if one were to include the current inflation level, the economy has to grow by 49.2% per annum, an economic feat never achieved before.  According to Bloomberg, inflation accelerated to 34.7% in May from 29.5%  the month before.  It was 64.5% last year.

For the last 20 years,  Meles promised  free and fair election to appease international donors and to bring hope to the suffering people of Ethiopia, but when people voted to oust him, especially in the 2005 election, he used bullets to silence them.  So his economic projection of doubling the economy in the next five years may be another way  to prolong his rule with a false promise.  For the last 20 years, the Ethiopian economy grew on average  3.6%, significantly lower than other developing countries.

 Currently, Ethiopians are going through a severe economic situation, worse than any time in history,  Meles is blaming the business community instead of his own wrongheaded policy, this includes the balkanization of Ethiopia, government domination of key industries,  lack of transparency, and rule by an ethnic minority that also raises the risk premium against any investment in Ethiopia.

Meles’ attempt to control inflation using price control misses the point. The price control strategy as witnessed in the U.S. in the 70′s under president Nixon does not work.  Now the regime is engaged in the blame game with its faltering economy. The government is lashing out on defenseless businesses by taking their property and throwing them in to the dungeon. Hardly a solution to a seriously flawed economic policy pursued for the last 20 years  with state control of the vital organs of the economy and printing money, which is the primary cause of inflation in the absence of real economic growth and productivity.

Retired opposition leader and former World Bank director, Bulcha Demeksa described recent government price control measures as “classical dictatorial” response to a failed economic policy.

Meles has refused to do the obvious despite the advice of the international community and sometimes of his own advisors, free the economy from the shackles of state control and establish  property rights and the rule of law. In many economies, the government sector is one of the smallest and the least contributor to economic growth. The Marxist regime believes otherwise. At the same time, recent price jumps have worsened the hunger situation in urban areas as well as in the rural areas. The rapid rise in population has outstripped Ethiopia’s ability to meet demands for major staples such as teff,  wheat, corn, berbere and others.

While the economy continue to get worse, the Ethiopian people are encouraged  to buying into the divide and conquer scheme planted by the regime in terms of tribe, religion, business against consumer, even though these are less relevant than solving their own and future generation economic survival.

To divert attention from the current economic crisis that the country is facing, Meles found two foreign adversaries, Egypt and Eritrea. The scheme to build the Millennium dam and declaring war on Eritrea were concocted to stem the revolutionary wind blowing from the Middle East against dictators and to beguile some gullible nationalists rather than to bring relief to the suffering people of Ethiopia

The current regime, besides denying the Ethiopian people their basic human rights, has  also denied them the opportunity to create a viable economic system for current and  future generations to come. The current scheme by the regime amounts to an undeclared war  on the very survival of the Ethiopian people and the Ethiopian nation or to put it mildly,  an economic genocide.

In the past, Meles talked a good game, offered much-ballyhooed proposals, but this time he went over the top by putting forward a  voodoo economics proposal, with an extra fantasy, and a mean-spirited hoax on the people of Ethiopia.

Dula Abdu, a real estate and investment consultant and a former banker. He can be reached at dula06@gmail.com or https://ethiodemocrat.org

World Without Dictators – A New Paradigm Shift

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Slaughtered by Dictator Zenawi soldiers while witnessing a massacre during 2005 peaceful protest in Ethiopia.

A new paradigm shift is taking place that may result in the demise of dictators.  The world without dictator will be fantastic  and now it’s possible. The Egyptian people besides giving one of the seven wonders of the world, the Pyramids, have also shown the  oppressed masses of  Africa and Asia how to conquer fear and earn their freedom in a non-violent way using  discipline and organization.

The new world order through the UN should declare dictators an abomination and  work towards their  eradication like Polio or any other  plagues because of their enormous power to kill and destroy.

The confluence of events led by social media, Aljazeera, CNN, a more sympathetic and enlightened administration in Washington, and  the peoples believe in their  inalienable right to be free  are the driving force to end authoritarian regimes.

 Events in North Africa, are shaking dictators around the world from their  foundation.  People in Africa and Asia are learning how to conquer fear and replace it with joy and happiness with the believe that freedom is not too  far away. Dictatorship does not only saps people’s rights and freedom, but it also significantly reduces their creative spirit and economic well being.  Most of the starvation, and civil strife happen in countries more often controlled by dictators. Oppressive regimes and systems are also a seeding ground for terrorism.

Unfortunately, the worst dictator  in the world  hail from Africa: Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritrea, and Zimbabwe to name a few.  One can deduce the primary reason for Africa’s poverty and under development could be attributed to the prevalence of these dictators who rule with the barrel of the gun instead of with reason, rule of law, and  sound economic policy to grow their economy and to eradicate poverty.

Recent developments are encouraging. The world’s attention to the plight of the Libyan people against Kaddafi could not have happened a year ago and in the past.  Historically, many countries looked the other way when dictators in Africa or anywhere mowed down their own people.  For example hundreds of peaceful protestors were mowed down in Ethiopia in  the aftermath of the 2005 election. Except a few congressmen such as Chris Smith of New Jersey (R), nobody bothered to protest such  massacres  in public. The State Department and the White House gave nonchalant response and business   as usual  continued. President Bush despite high and mighty rhetoric never took his vision  seriously to challenge dictators who are in line with American foreign policy agenda.

President Obama’s administration has been a force for good in recent events. Restraining the Egyptian army, imposing sanction on Kaddafi are the right steps in the right direction.  This new paradigm shift will be most helpful  to the people of Africa. The world without dictators will save lives, eradicate famine, decrease the need for  international aid to poor countries. President Obama has the chance to achieve this milestone if he dares.

Other innocent victims of the November 2005 Massacre

Unlike  dictators  in S.Korea, Singapore, even in China, the African dictators did not grow their economy, besides acting as a parasite and siphoning resources to their bank account in Switzerland like Hosni Mubarak  did by stashing an estimated $70 billion.   

Slowly but  surely that the world is notifying dictators around the world that they cannot shed innocent blood  and get away with it.  The presence of the media, the people’s ability to organize in mass using the social media has changed the equation in favor of peaceful protestors, as well as  overcame the bias and outright disinformation of events by  government controlled press. The confluence of events has shown  the people’s power to bring down dictators. This  paradigm shift  by itself requires a great worldwide celebration like the  defeat of the Hitler, Mussolini  and other evils of the past.  President Obama, and the EU should seize the moment and give unequivocal warning to all dictators to leave town so that democracy and respect for human dignity will blossom.

Dula Abdu, originally from Africa, writes on foreign policy. He can be contacted at dula06@gmail.com

Victory is at our Finger tips

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Victory is at our finger tips. The question is who is going to drive it? All the stars are aligned to free Ethiopia and we should not let this pass us by without taking advantage of it.

In one of my articles entitled “Dictators are like Giant Elephants with a feet of clay”, I reiterated the belief that dictators despite appearing impregnable lack a foundation and justification for their existence, thus they collapse easily with a little push.

The primary objective now has to be to generate that push by coordinating the forces in the Diaspora and at home.  During a brief personal visit to Houston, Aba Biya Aba Jobir, told me in August, 1991 that the Woyanes will be gone in six months. That was almost 20 years ago. Thus I will not discount in the ability of Meles to finesse a strategy to stay another 20 years unless we unite and outsmart him this time.

In order to dismantle the Meles regime we need to connect with the Ethiopian people at home. Despite recent setbacks, the Ethiopian people are known for their bravery and for preserving their freedom and independence for thousands of years from the Europeans, Turks, Arabs and others. Repelling the Italians in 1896, driving them out in 1941, repelling the Ottoman, Arabs and other invaders is a testimony to the bravery and tenacity of the Ethiopian people. This has earned the Ethiopian people a place in history among Africans and many others.

Meles knowing that has devised a scheme to divide and conquer them. He was able to pick on Oromos, Amharas, Gurages, Somalis and other one at time and silence them. Now, all alienated groups, Somalis, Oromos, and the Southern people have realized that division served Meles well rather than anybody.
It has become clear to many that a democratic Ethiopia has a room for every Ethiopian regardless of tribe, religion or where they come from. So the Ethiopian spirit of unity and fighting the common enemy is back and the time for the Woyane is over.

To dismantle the Woyanes, we need to connect with students, labor unions, businesses, and others in Ethiopia to make the revolution a united force like the one in Egypt to shatter the Woyane design of divide and conquer. The idea of breaking up Ethiopia by tribe as concocted by TPLF and EPLF was plan to control and to subjugate all Ethiopians into a second class status. Simply, such idea only serves enemies of the Ethiopian people. In the past, the Woyanes were able to pick on one group at a time, but this time we are united and nobody can defeat a united Ethiopia, as witnessed by past enemies of Ethiopia. Woyanes picked on labor unions, Taxi drivers, bankers, Gurages, Amharas, Oromos one by one to silence and to put them out of actions. Think the possibility of all Ethiopians coming out in mass or refusing to obey Woyanes like the Egyptians did. If the Ethiopian people can generate a unity like the Egyptians and the people of Tunisia, no one in the world let alone Woyanes can defeat the Ethiopian people.

Given this recognition, all Ethiopians from Gambella to Ogaden should be united. Once united, nobody can defeat them and victory is at their finger tips. Mubarak in the past used to kill hundreds of the Muslim brothers and used to get away with such murders, like Meles got away in 2005. But when the Egyptians united regardless of their religion, race and ideology, they became unstoppable for Mubarak and for the army. In Ethiopia, the majority of the military people are coming to the recognition that they are not willing to kill to preserve a regime hated by the majority of the people. The majority of the foot soldiers hail from the rest of Ethiopia, except the top leaders. Fortunately, according to the recent database, now we know where the top brasses live, work and all their tentacles and if they were to massacre our people, there are forces to wipe them out as well. So it is unlikely, that they will engage in a massacre.

After Meles, there is a need to establish a reconciliation and truth committee like the one in South Africa, to forgive and forget for the sake of ending the saga of retribution that Meles started. A transitional government representing all sectors of the Ethiopian people need to be constructed immediately to lead to a free and fair election and to lay a democratic foundation for Ethiopia. However, we need to put the Horse before the cart. First, let us work on igniting the revolution while iron is hot for liberation. Meles is scared, but he is capable of creating another means to abort this revolution using his proxies in the West or at home. A call by the U.S. Embassy to bring the opposition and the Woyanes together is another plot to abort the revolution and to protect U.S. interest. Strategies to sustain the revolution: Revolutionary forces in the Diaspora and in Ethiopia need to coordinate a time table to oust Meles before the worldwide revolution for democratic change cool off.

The major tasks and scenarios should be clearly worked out. The Woyanes are merciless and shrewd and they might have already put a plan of action in place how to thwart everything. This time, Ethiopians cannot think conventional, meaning they have to outsmart the Meles and his agazie army until victory.
In order to avoid the abortion of the movement, all the participants especially in Ethiopia need to have a concept of “shared awareness” like a military outfit, that allows each participant to know what the immediate situation is as well as know his/her responsibilities during the course of the struggle and until final victory with all the back up plans in place.

In Ethiopia, we will not have the luxury of the social media to stay connected, to respond to the unexpected. An authoritarian government like Meles fears technology instead of taking it as a blessing and will do everything in its power to cut all sorts of communication from Internet, cell phone, and land lines too, while relying on its military mobile unit for its communication. So the movement has to be disciplined, coordinated, as well as creative to overcome this irrational regime.

Other scenarios include for example how to bring parties in Ethiopia or in the Diaspora together?
How to create the infrastructure to keep the revolution alive. How do we get the media, especially the International media to become an integral part of the revolution and a witness to report it and to put a restraint on Woyanes from using excessive force to kill the movement. Simply, we need to have a time table, as well as a plan of actions in taking into account all the scenarios and to start the revolution.

The revolution has to be nationwide. Gojam, the Southern people, Gonder, Wollega, Harar, Addis Abeba, students and labor unions have to revolt to overwhelm the Woyanes. If not, they may kill and leave another mayhem like they did in the past. So the coordination at home and abroad is important. The day of awakening or the day of revolution has to be announced to all concerned and fear has to be conquered, Woyane has to be defeated and Ethiopia has to be free. A new generation has to lead Ethiopia, because the old establishment has failed miserably.

The young people in Egypt and Tunisia brainstormed on the use of technology, how to evade surveillance, to organize barricades, how to handle rubber bullets, overcome gases, wear masks and other tactics in order to drive their revolution. They handled everything as a military outfit and they believed in their god given right to be free from unjustified and unwarranted oppression for the rest of their lives. The Muslim brothers, the Coptic Christians, doctors, the nerds, the soccer players, professors, lawyers and all of them combined their energy and operated like a brain surgeon using the nonviolent resistance. Of course, they were willing to die, but they knew that with such meticulous plan, organization and discipline it was just a matter of time for the people to be victorious against Mubarak, the military or any of Mubarak’s thugs. The Ethiopian people need to break from the past, which was designed to divide them and to control them.

Breaking free from past artificial divisions created by the ruler of Ethiopia is critical. The people of Ethiopia need to unite to stop the bleeding, the suffering and the backwardness that was bestowed on them by past ruler and oppressors. The Ethiopian people never took things into their own hands, consequently they continued to suffer. Division has served past rulers well because they were able to shape Ethiopia to fit their interest not the interest of the Ethiopian people. This division often manufactured by the ruling cliques shaped our mind set and kept Ethiopia divided and impoverished forever.

Freedom for Ethiopia is at our finger tips, so let us unite and drive the revolution to victory without fear and restore Ethiopia’s coveted status as a free and proud country.

A must Watch From Egypt

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The article and the video show what went underground to make the Egyptian revolution. As Newton’s First Law states that an object will remain at rest unless acted upon by an external force. Also any change in motion can cause accelertion.

In Ethiopia we have to end this interia of Woyane rule for the last 20 years. Woyane has divided the country, destroying its economy, its identity and overall welfare.

The Egyptian revolution did not happen by accident. It was those who sought the need and sat down and put a plan together. Simply, it was not spontaneous. It took months to carefully plan and put into operation. Sothe video and the text provide valuable lessons.

CAIRO — The Egyptian opposition’s takeover of the area around the parliament this week began with a trick.
First, they called for a march on the state television building a few blocks north of their encampment in Tahrir Square. Then, while the army deployed to that sensitive communications hub, they moved into the lightly defended area around the parliament to the south.

The feint gave a taste of how a dozen young activists managed to outwit Egypt’s feared security forces to launch a historic uprising now in its 17th day—and hint at how the organizers hope to keep pressure on a regime that has dug in its heels.

On Jan. 25, the first day of protests, the organizers had a trick up their sleeves in the impoverished slum of Bulaq al-Dakrour, on Cairo’s western edge.

There amid the maze of muddy, narrow alleyways, a seemingly spontaneous protest caught security forces on their heels and swelled in size before those forces could react to crush it.

That protest was anything but spontaneous. How the organizers pulled it off, when so many past efforts had failed, has had people scratching their heads ever since.

After his release from detention on Sunday, Google Inc. executive Wael Ghonim recounted his meeting with Egyptian’s newly appointed interior minister. “No one understood how you did it,” Mr. Ghonim said the minister told him. He said his interrogators concluded there had to have been outside forces involved.

The plotters, who now form the leadership core of the Revolutionary Youth Movement, which has stepped to the fore as representatives of protestors in Tahrir Square, have shared their secret in recent days for the first time.

Their accounts reveal a core of savvy plotters who have managed to stay a step ahead of the security forces with decoy marches and smart politicking that has sustained popular support for their protests.

In early January, when they decided they would try to replicate the accomplishments of the protesters in Tunisia who ousted President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, their immediate concern was how to outfox the Ministry of Interior, whose legions of riot police had managed to contain and quash protests for years. The police were expert at preventing demonstrations from growing or moving through the streets, and at keeping ordinary Egyptians away.

“We had to find a way to prevent security from making their cordon and stopping us,” said Basem Kamel, a 41-year-old architect who is a member of Mohamed ElBaradei’s youth wing and was one of the dozen or so plotters.

They met daily for two weeks in the cramped living room of the mother of Ziad al-Alimi, a leading organizer for the opposition group formed by Mr. ElBaradei and one of the chief plotters.

Mr. Alimi’s mother, a former activist herself who served six months in prison for her role leading protests during the bread riots in 1977, lives in the middle-class neighborhood of Agouza on the west bank of the Nile.

The group of plotters included representatives from six youth movements connected to opposition political parties, groups advocating labor rights and the Muslim Brotherhood.

They chose 20 protest sites, usually connected to mosques, in densely populated working-class neighborhoods around Cairo, hoping that a large number of scattered protests would strain security forces, draw larger numbers, and increase the likelihood that some would be able to break out and link up in the city’s central Tahrir Square.

The group publicly called for protests at those sites for Jan. 25, a national holiday celebrating the country’s widely reviled police force. They announced the sites of the demonstrations on the Internet and called for protests to begin at each one after prayers at about 2 p.m. But that wasn’t all.

“The twenty-first site, no one knew about,” Mr. Kamel said.

To be sure, they weren’t the only ones calling for protests that day. Other influential activist groups rallied their resources to the cause. The Facebook page for Khaled Said, the young man beaten to death for no apparent reason by police in Alexandria, had emerged months earlier as an online gathering place for activists in Egypt.

There was an Arabic page and an English page, and each had its own administrators. Mr. Ghonim, the Google executive, has now been identified as one of the administrators, but the pages’ other administrators remain anonymous.

An administrator for the English language page, known only by his online moniker El-Shaheed, or The Martyr, recounted the administrators’ role in the protests in an interview with The Wall Street Journal via Gmail Chat.

El-Shaheed said he was chatting online with the site’s Arabic-language administrator on Jan. 14, just as news broke of Tunisian President Ben Ali’s flight from the country. Mr. Kamel and his cohorts, who had already begun plotting their protest, now had another powerful recruiting force.

“I was talking with Arabic admin and we were watching Tunisia and the moment we heard Ben Ali ran away, he said, we have to do something,” said El-Shaheed.

The Arabic administrator posted on the Arabic page an open question to readers: “What do you think we should give as a gift to the brutal Egyptian police on their day?”

“The answer came from everyone: Tunisia Tunisia :),” wrote El-Shaheed.

For the final three days before the protest, Mr. Kamel and his fellow plotters slept away from home, fearing police would come to arrest them in the middle of the night and disrupt their plan. They stopped using their own cell phones and in favor of those owned by family members or friends that were less likely to be monitored.

They sent small teams to do reconnaissance on the secret 21st site in Bulaq al-Dakrour. That site was the Hayiss Sweet Shop, whose storefront and tiled sidewalk plaza meant to accommodate outdoor tables in warmer months would make an easy-to-find rallying point in an otherwise tangled neighborhood no different from countless others around the city.

The plotters knew that the demonstrations’ success would depend on the participation of ordinary Egyptians in working-class districts such as Bulaq al-Dakrour, where the Internet and Facebook aren’t as widely used. They distributed flyers around the city in the days leading up to the demonstration, concentrating efforts on Bulaq al-Dakrour.

“It gave people the idea that a revolution would start on January 25,” Mr. Kamel said.

The organizers sent small teams of plotters to walk the protest route repeatedly in the days leading up to the protest, at a slow pace and at a fast pace, to get their timing down for sychronizing when the separate protests would link up.

On Jan. 25, security forces predictably deployed by the thousands at the sites of each announced demonstration. Meanwhile, four field commanders chosen from the organizers’ committee began ordering their men to the secret gathering point at the sweet shop.

The organizers divided themselves into cells of 10—with only one person per cell aware of the secret destination.

In these small groups, the protesters advanced toward the Hayiss Sweet Shop, massing into a crowd of 300 demonstrators free from police control. The lack of security prompted neighborhood residents to stream by the hundreds out of the neighborhood’s cramped alleyways, swelling the crowd into the thousands, according to employees at the Hayiss Sweet Shop who watched the scene unfold.

At 1:15 p.m., they began marching toward downtown Cairo. By the time police realized what was under way and redeployed a small contingent to block their path, the protesters’ numbers had grown so quickly that they easily overpowered the police.

The other marches organized at mosques around the city failed to reach Tahrir Square, their efforts foiled by riot-police cordons. The Bulaq al-Dakrour marchers, the only group to reach their objective, occupied Tahrir Square for several hours until after midnight, when police attacked demonstrators with tear gas and rubber bullets.

It was the first time Egyptians had seen such a demonstration in their streets, and it provided an explosive tipping point credited with emboldening tens of thousands of people to come out to protest the following Friday.

That day, they seized Tahrir Square again, and they haven’t given it up since.

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More info at :http://www.ethiomedia.com/above/2120.html

Lessons learned from Egypt

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Lessons learned from Egypt is that people have power. Dictator Mubarak is about to bow down to the will of the people. If so, can the Egyptian style resistance movement work in Ethiopia. Of course, we have by in large an army primarily repesenting and serving an ethnic group and an ethnic dictator. A dictator is a dictator, so they have no standing if the people organize and rise to the challenge. People have fought decades to liberate themselfes from oppression. In Egypt if all the people participate and keep the momentum, as it appears it will, dictator Mubarak has to go or will be forced by the will of the people dragged or kicking like other dictators.

Like the Egyptians are a trailblazer for the Arab world, Ethiopians can be a trail blazer for the sub-Sahara Africa. What would it take to get there. I will put a proposal together to spark a revolution in Ethiopia and to keep it going. Here is another Egyptian resistent video that is should be a great inspiration for all of us.

Egypt Versus Ethiopia

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By Metha Obang,

Ethiopians: Let us Prepare Ourselves Before the Peoples’ Revolution to Oust an Ethiopian Dictator Reaches Ethiopia (Part I)
February 5, 2011. For thousands of years, life in Egypt has been greatly sustained and nurtured by the Nile waters coming from the rivers of Ethiopia and beyond; flowing through the beautiful land we all share. The Nile is like the blood of our shared humanity that passes through the veins of every human being; preserving life through generations past, present and future.

Yet, over the last days and weeks, the ingredients for renewed life are coming from Egypt to Ethiopia; as if the great river has reversed its flow and is going upstream to nurture a land where hopes of a better future had dried up. As it flows, the winds are also blowing seeds of change to and fro in the world; some of these seeds will find life in the fertile soils of discontent.

The inspiring message that comes from seeing masses of people stand up with courage and in solidarity as they demand freedom and justice after years of repression will find some of that fertile soil, ready for planting, in Ethiopia; tilled to perfection by the strongman himself—Meles Zenawi—who rightfully fears that Ethiopia will be next.

Like Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak, when cornered, Meles—like any other typical dictator—will likely use the “same-old” tactics (see below) both he and others have used before, but to a more intense degree now; especially division, all of which should be publically exposed, especially to the western donors, and immediately countered. We anticipate he will:

1) strengthen his power-base in Ethiopia through “strongman techniques”—bribes, threats, intimidation—harshly clamping down further on democratic and civil rights
2) close down communication lines further; particularly the Internet, social media and outside sources of radio and TV broadcasts like the VOA, Deutshe Welle or ESAT
3) lobby himself and his regime in the international community by falsely claiming they are the only ones capable of maintaining stability and fighting terrorism; particularly should new threats emerge from these uprisings in Egypt, Yemen and beyond, despite many gifted, capable and moderate Ethiopians from diverse groups who are committed to stability and security in the country
4) loot Ethiopian assets and resources (particularly land and mineral rights) at an accelerated pace, while he can still do it; stashing investments and profits in foreign banks and companies
5) Play the ethnic card through new campaigns of propaganda and government sponsored ethnic attacks and/or events meant to:
a. create fear among Tigrayans like he did in 2005; claiming that allegiance to him is their only option for security
b. spread propaganda to Oromos and minority groups that the Amhara are coming to dominate
c. incite conflict or government-sponsored violence; including where there is peaceful protest, in order to justify draconian counter measures against the people

The irony is that if Meles takes such steps to prevent an uprising of the people, he may find he is simply better preparing the soil for a broad-based, massive peoples’ movement. His actions may all backfire, making the people more determined than ever to resist.
What Meles does not understand is that Ethiopians want a NEW ETHIOPIA that has room for all its beautiful and diverse people; not the Ethiopia of Menelik, Haile Selassie, Mengistu or his own ethnic-based apartheid government of the TPLF, which has not only ruled with an iron hand, but has poisoned Ethiopian society by promoting ethnic-based hatred, division and alienation among the people. This has included an attempt to isolate his own ethnic group from the mainstream through favoritism, isolation, scare tactics and repressive measures against dissenters in an attempt to maintain their support; however, much of this support is superficial and will disappear once the people rise up and demand the end of any ethnic-based governments. Only then will Ethiopians live in greater peace for “no one will be free until all are free.”
With this in mind, and as we receive reports of great discontent in Ethiopia, we believe it is only a matter of time before there is a peoples’ movement in the country that rises up to demand freedom, justice, equality and respect for human and civil rights. The SMNE is not in a position to make that call—for it will come organically from within Ethiopia—but instead, the SMNE seeks to give guidance, a manual to all Ethiopians as a whole, for how to help such actions produce a better Ethiopia rather than costly efforts that end up being hijacked, sabotaged or worse yet; become another force of destruction to Ethiopians. Ethiopians have had enough misery, suffering and pain. Periods of change can be for good or for bad; regardless of what we have had before. Honoring God and principles that value all human life should be primary. Greed and thirst for power have no place.
In Part II, we will more directly address seven different groups; giving more specific recommendations for how different sectors of our society might contribute to the overall success of a movement for freedom once the people of Ethiopia rise up.
The following are some suggestions for how we might counter some of Meles’ efforts to block the people. Please do what you can and come up with your own ideas. Here are some:
• Expose Meles; letting others know that Meles is one of the worst dictators in the world—get this information broadcast through the media, social networks, Alejazeera, BBC, CNN, Fox NEWs, bloggers, Tweeters, public radio, faith organizations, human rights organizations and any others who are interested in democratic movements.
• Support others who are also standing up for their universal human and civil rights; letting them know that the people of Ethiopia stand in solidarity with them.
• Ethiopians who are skilled in IT, this is your movement and your time! You are needed. Call us!
• Join one of the active and well-known tweeters to inform them about the brutal dictatorial regime in Ethiopia
• Others.

Please do not hesitate to e-mail your comments to Mr. Obang Metho, Executive Director of the SMNE, at: obang@solidaritymovement.org . You can click at the following link http://www.solidaritymovement.net/index.cfm and filling out the required fields to be adds on our mailing lists or to subscribe or to suggest material for inclusion. For a full archive and other resources, see http://www.solidaritymovement.org/ You can also join us on the Face book page.

Meles will fall like any dictator with the right push

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Ethiopians can learn from the Egyptian and Tunisian experiences. The foundation for change in Ethiopia is unambigiously present, if the Ethiopian people
can overcome fear. The Ethiopian people have nothing to fear, but fear itself. I recently wrote a piece about dictators. The title was “Dictators are like giant elephants with a feet of clay. Simply, if push them at the right time, they will collapse. Meles will not engage in massacring the people of Ethiopia at this age and time while the world is looking. Consequently, if the Ethiopian people get their courage that they had shown with past common enemies like the Italians and others, their victory against their current oppressor is inevitable. Please enjoy the following video.

Ethiopia: USA and Vatican accuse the Ethiopian government of unequal power sharing

zenawi_violator.jpgBy Ethioguardian

The United States of America today accused the Ethiopian government of favoring one ethnicity in appointing government positions. Mr. Douglas M. Griffiths, USA representative in the United Nations Human Rights Council, stated that: “Independent observers have noted…that most senior government positions are overwhelmingly represented by one ethnicity”, and recommended Ethiopia to examine and adjust the ethnic balance in government positions as the Ethiopian governments policy of Ethnic Federalism promotes. The Vatican also emphasized on the importance of a more equitable power sharing. Watch The Video (Use RealPlayer)

USA Mr. Douglas M. Griffiths English
Holy See (The Vatican) Mr. Hubertus Matheus Van Megen

Over 50 countries forwarded questions and recommendations to the government of Ethiopia in the Universal Periodic Review, the human rights exam of the United Nations, held in Geneva today.

In response to the American criticism the Head of the Ethiopian delegation, H.E. Mr. Fisseha Yimer, Special Adviser to the Minister at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, classified the accusation as “speculation”, “off the mark” and “wrong”. He promised the countries interested in this issue to come up with proof of the opposite.

Many participants asked questions about the infamous Charities and Societies Proclamation, The Mass Media Law and Anti terrorism Law, restrictive legislations, which are widely condemned by donors and international human rights groups.
In his introductory statement Mr. Yimer indicated that the Ethiopian population misunderstands international human rights norms, which makes it difficult for the government to implement international human rights standards in the Ethiopian society. This shows how the Ethiopian regime underestimates its own people. Knowing the amount of political prisoners, media repression and reports of violations of human rights at the moment, the Ethiopian delegation tried to cover up the dictatorial nature of the regime.

Answering questions from France on the 2005 election and its bloody aftermath, Mr. Yimer said that it was a past issue and that the outcome of the national inquiry was satisfactory. Many members of the opposition fled the country in 2005, including some members of the inquiry commission, after being harassed by Ethiopian government forces. Harassment on opposition and media freedom, raised by Australia, made Mr. Yimer laugh out loud and say: “There is no harassment!”.

Questions about the case of Birtukan Mideksa, the imprisoned leader of Ethiopia’s main opposition party, were completely ignored by the Ethiopian delegation.

Most of the countries asked access to detention centers and visits of special rapporteurs, individuals working on behalf of the United Nations who bear a specific mandate from the UN Human Rights Council, to investigate issues on arbitrary detention, extrajudicial executions, torture etcetera. In the past years, the Ethiopian government was requested to grant access to these special rapporteurs, requests which have not been granted so far. Mr.Yimer, the head of the delegation, answered saying this was not possible due to the limited capacity of the country.

The grave human rights violations committed by Ethiopian government military forces in the Somali region (Ogaden), described by Human Right Watch as genocide, were also raised by, mainly Western, countries. Mr.Yimer ignored answering these questions.
Unsurprisingly, countries benefiting from Ethiopia’s recourses, such as India and China, and most African countries, were mostly praising the Ethiopian regime for their achievements on the Millennium Development Goals and Social, Economic and Cultural Rights.

Guerilla Economics _ Hard to Understand

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Guerilla Economics  – Hard to Understand

Dictator Meles and former Marxist guerilla leader may be providing western media including Bloomberg with bogus economic data. Recently, Bloomberg compared Ethiopia with the BRIC nations(Brazil, Russia, India and China) as possessing one of the fastest growing economies.  Given the current institutional constraints, such as  government control of the major means of production,  including housing stocks, all land, Internet etc. , it will be highly improbable if not impossible for the Ethiopian economy to enjoy the same growth like the BRIC nations. Unlike China or India, direct investment in Ethiopia is limited by the Ethiopian Diaspora or foreigners because of the high risk the country poses due to the lack of rule of law, which is manifested in the need sometimes to pay protection money to government agents and  often to members of Meles tribe.

Claims that the Ethiopian economy will grow  10-14.5% per annum in the next five years , much higher than the achievement of the BRIC nations  is highly improbable  for a country like Ethiopia. There are many reasons why the Ethiopian economy cannot enjoy similar or faster growth than the BRICs, because the current regime denies Ethiopians access to technology, voluntarily made Ethiopia land locked,  and provides no property rights or rule of law to protect  investors.  These factors discourage Ethiopia from achieving rapid economic growth. Of course, the injunction of ethnocentrism also causes the misallocation of resources and inhibits the free flow  of capital to its efficient destination with in Ethiopia.

BRIC nations can brag for growing their economies  with demonstrable benefits to their citizens such as job growth and  capital formation,  instead of imposing  price control and throwing business owners to jail as is the case in Ethiopia.  This is what some call truly dictatorial economics, where the ruler controls everything; land, Internet, cell phone, etc. , but assigns blame when the economy starts to stumble.

Dictator Meles claims that the Ethiopian economy will double in 5 years, that would require the economy to grow at or above 14.5% a year with zero inflation or if one were to include the current inflation level, the economy has to grow by 29% per annum, an economic feat never achieved before.   

For the last 20 years  Meles promised  free and fair election to appease international donors and to bring hope to the suffering people of Ethiopia, but when people voted to oust him in past elections, he used bullets to silence them.  So his economic projection of doubling the economy in the next five years may be another way  to prolong his rule with a false promise.  For the last 20 years, the Ethiopian economy grew on average  3.6%, significantly lower than other developing countries.

 Currently, Ethiopians are going through a severe economic situation, as in the past,  Meles is blaming the business community instead of his own wrongheaded policy, this includes the balkanization of Ethiopia,  lack of property rights, lack of access to technology, lack of transparency, and rule by an ethnic minority that also raises the risk premium against any investment in Ethiopia.

Meles’ attempt to control inflation using price control misses the point. The price control strategy as witnessed in the U.S. in the 70’s under president Nixon does not work.  Now the regime is engaged in the blame game with its faltering economy. The government is lashing out on defenseless businesses by taking their property and throwing them in to the dungeon. Hardly a solution to a seriously flawed economic policy pursued for the last 20 years  with state control of the vital organs of the economy and printing money, which is the primary cause of inflation in the absence of real economic growth and productivity.

Retired opposition leader and former World Bank director, Bulcha Demeksa described recent government price control measures as “classical dictatorial” response to a failed economic policy.

Meles has refused to do the obvious despite the advise of the international community and sometimes of his own advisors, free the economy from the shackles of state control and establish  property rights and the rule of law.

In many economies, the government sector is one of the smallest and the least contributor to economic growth. The Marxist regime believes otherwise.

The Ethiopian people should stop buying  government  propaganda such as blaming businesses instead of the economic policy  promoted by Meles, which is driving prices and misallocating resources.

Ethiopian businesses and consumers need to rally against the farce and dictatorial economy of Meles and his ploy to  blame others instead of his failed and flawed economic policy to avoid unnecessary bloodshed and conflicts among Ethiopians.  It is also well known that  Ethiopians continue to suffer  drowning in the Indian Ocean or getting killed in refugee camps fleeing this draconian dictatorship.

 The current regime, besides denying the Ethiopian people their basic human rights, may also denying them the opportunity to create a viable economic system for current and  future generations to come.  What is going on in Ethiopia under the current dictatorship some argue being equivalent to undeclared war on liberty and the very survival of the Ethiopian people and the Ethiopian nation.

Dula Abdu, a real estate and investment consultant and a former banker, and adjunct professor of economics.  He can be reached at dula06@gmail.com or www.ethiodemocrat.org

Welcome to Ethio Democrat – under construction

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This website is dedicated to promoting democracy and rule of law in Ethiopia, which has been lacking for centuries. It is about time  for change. Can you be a change agent and join Ethiodemocrat.

In my recent article, I wrote about Dictators are like giants with a feet of clay, and if you put enough pressure they will collapse. In Ethiopia, that could happend if we do our part.

To read one of my most recent articles, please click here: http://www.ethiomedia.com/above/2005.html